Breaking down the 2012 football schedule

The upcoming football schedule for the ACC was released Monday afternoon. I immediately began thoroughly scouring the docket for all 12 teams to see who caught the breaks, who got jobbed by the schedule-makers, and what it all means in the race for the conference championship. Here are my deep and hopefully coherent thoughts on each team’s schedule. I’ll have some more broad thoughts on this schedule’s impact tomorrow morning, so stay tuned.

Boston College

Games 1-4: Miami, Maine, at Northwestern, Clemson

The Eagles will play Miami for the second time in as many conference games after ending their season with an upset win over the ‘Canes at Sun Life Stadium in 2011. The Hurricanes suffered major attrition and will be in full-fledged rebuilding mode in 2012, so this game will be a toss-up. Northwestern must deal with the loss of star quarterback Dan Persa, and the Wildcats’ defense was atrocious in 2011. Clemson should have no problem with the Eagles. A good start would be 3-1, but 2-2 is much more realistic. A 1-3 start is by no means out of the question

Games 5-8: at Army, at Florida State, at Georgia Tech, Maryland
Army struggled through a 3-9 season in 2011, but the Knights return their top seven rushers, including quarterback Trent Steelman, so that early October trip won’t be easy for the Eagles. Florida State will be loaded, and that is followed by a trip to Georgia Tech that will favor an experienced Yellow Jackets’ club. Maryland is in complete disarray, and will be hands down the league’s worst team in 2012. I’d expect the Eagles to go 2-2 in this stretch.

Games 9-12: at Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, at NC State

The Demon Deacons were sneaky good in 2011, and despite the loss of Chris Givens at wideout, should be solid again this season. That will be a tough road trip for the Eagles. Notre Dame must come to Chesnut Hill, and the Irish figure to be a fringe top-25 team in 2012. Virginia Tech has owned the Eagles in recent years, but the Hokies notoriously struggle when they must travel to Boston College. NC State has an outside shot at contending for the Atlantic Division title, which the Eagles do not. Two wins in this stretch would be a bit of a reach, one win isn’t even a certainty.

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The non-conference portion is manageable, with the Notre Dame game serving as the stiffest test. The Eagles did get a tough draw from the Coastal Division with Miami, at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. They also must travel to two of the three Atlantic Division contenders (FSU/NC State). The Eagles will be lucky to go bowling with this slate. Difficulty: 9

Clemson

Games 1-4: Auburn (in Atlanta), Ball State, Furman, at Florida State

The Tigers will play on the second night of the double-dip Chick-fil-A Kickoff against Auburn, which is absolutely loaded in the backfield and was last seen thumping a confident Virginia team in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. That game will be a huge opportunity for the Tigers to wash the disgusting taste of the Orange Bowl out of their mouths, but with great opportunity comes tremendous pressure. The Tigers simply cannot afford to lay an egg in that game for the sake of their national perception, and more importantly their psyche as team. So much is riding on that game.

The Tigers get two virtual bye weeks before the Florida State showdown, which will be one of epic proportions. The Seminoles will be looking for payback after last season’s electrifying game in Death Valley. Three wins should satisfy Clemson fans, but an undefeated September would have us back where we were in 2011 with the Tigers in the thick of the early national title conversation.

Games 5-8: at Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, at Wake Forest (Thursday)

The Tigers will be coming off an emotional game against the Seminoles when they travel north to face Boston College, but they have no excuse to lose that game. Georgia Tech has a bear of an early-season slate, but the Jackets will be tested by the time they visit Clemson. The Hokies have just one true test before Clemson, so they may be unbeaten when they visit on Oct. 20. That didn’t stop the Tigers from embarrassing last season, in Lane Stadium no less. A quick turnaround on the road in what will be an amped-up Wake Forest crowd is very, very dangerous.

Games 9-12: at Duke, Maryland, NC State, South Carolina

This is a relatively smooth final month of the season. The NC State game may loom large depending on how the Atlantic Division standings look at that point, and the South Carolina game is, well, the South Carolina game. It’s grown even more heated in recent years, thanks to some heated comments by both Dabo Swinney and Steve Spurrier. Nothing can be taken for granted, however. The Tigers are famous for late-season swoons.

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The first month is very tough with Auburn and Florida State away from home, and the league did the Tigers no favors with the quick turnaround from Virginia Tech to Wake Forest. Clemson is without question one of the best three teams in the conference heading into the season, but two losses in September could knock the Tigers off the tracks very early. Difficulty: 9.

Duke

Games 1-4: FIU, at Stanford, NC Central, Memphis

Mario Cristobal is gone at FIU, leaving to take the Rutgers’ job, but FIU is a program on the rise in the Sun Belt. Superstar receiver T.Y. Hilton is gone, though. The Blue Devils are historically terrible on opening day. Well, they are terrible on a lot of days, but especially game one. Stanford is a loss, NC Central is a win, and Memphis is a complete mess, so the Devils should win that one. Duke could actually win three games in September. Gasp.

Games 5-8: at Wake Forest, Virginia, at Virginia Tech, North Carolina

If the Blue Devils get off to a strong start, the Wake Forest game will go miles in determining their chances of making a bowl game for the first time in two decades. The Deacons hold the upper hand in that match-up, but it will be Duke’s last real chance at a win until November. Virginia isn’t getting any worse, and the Hokies and Tar Heels should have little trouble dispatching of the Devils.

Games 9-12: at Florida State, Clemson, at Georgia Tech, Miami

Yikes. An absolute death row of games to finish the season, particularly the first three of this stretch. Best-case, Duke enters this stretch 4-4 needing a split in these four games to make a bowl. Good luck with that.
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With the obvious exception of Stanford, the non-conference schedule couldn’t get much easier for Duke. It’s a brutal conference schedule that will keep the Blue Devils in the cellar of the league yet again. They draw two potential preseason top-10 teams from the other division, not to mention a trip to Wake Forest. We’re one-fourth of the way through the conference and it’s looking treacherous for every team. What is this? Difficulty: 9

Florida State

Games 1-4: Murray State, Savannah State, Wake Forest, Clemson

What is this, basketball? Four straight home games to open the season, including the first two against FCS opponents is about as easy a start as you can have. Obviously the Clemson game will be huge, but the Seminoles should be healthy and completely prepared for that game. There could be a bit of a look-ahead factor in the Wake match-up, but all signs point to a comfortable 3-0 start before the Tigers come to town.

Games 5-8: at South Florida, at NC State, Boston College, at Miami

South Florida will have a veteran roster that will be hungry to prove itself against the mighty Seminoles. The Bulls have historically performed extremely well against their in-state rivals. Coming off the emotional Clemson game, USF is a tricky foe. Another road trip to NC State won’t be easy; it was two years ago that the Wolfpack stunned the Seminoles in Raleigh on a Thursday night. BC and Miami are mortal locks to be wins.

Games 9-12: Duke, at Virginia Tech (Thursday), at Maryland, Florida

Oh, boy. The Seminoles go to Blacksburg for a Thursday night game. That will make for an ELECTRIC environment, and has game-of-the-year material written all over it (of course, there’s a legitimate argument these days that Lane isn’t what it used to be for those midweek games). Thankfully for the Seminoles, the Tech game is sandwiched between two cakewalks in Duke and Maryland. Florida shouldn’t be on the Seminoles’ level this year, but you never know what can happen in that game.

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The softness from back-to-back FCS opponent start is relatively offset by the trip to USF and the Florida game, but it’s still a non-conference slate that lends itself to four Seminole wins. Duke and Miami are surefire wins, but the Virginia Tech game has the potential to have national championship game implications. There’s a bunch of either very easy, or fairly difficult games for Florida State. Not too much in between. Difficulty: 7.

Georgia Tech

Games 1-4: at Virginia Tech (Labor Day), Presbyterian, Virginia, Miami

The winner of the Yellow Jackets-Hokies’ game has represented the Coastal Division in every ACC Championship Game ever played. Never have they met so early, however. These two teams not-so-secretly despite one another, and home field advantage hasn’t played much of a role in this series over the years. It’s a tough start for the Jackets, but they are embracing the challenge. Virginia could be a make-or-break game for the Yellow Jackets if they lose in Blacksburg. I’ve hated pretty hard on Miami, but they really shouldn’t beat Georgia Tech. Unless the Jackets are 1-2 and completely shaken, which is a possibility.

Games 5-8: Middle Tennesee, at Clemson, Boston College, BYU

Tech will be favored in three of four games in October, with the Clemson game potentially serving as a huge opportunity for Paul Johnson’s club to re-assert itself as a premier team in the ACC. The Georgia Tech-Clemson rivalry is a good one that typically serves up fantastically entertaining games. The Tigers will certainly want to exact revenge for Tech spoiling their perfect record in 2011. BYU lost top rusher JJ Di Luigi, but the Cougars are extremely well coached and are typically strong against BCS foes.

Games 9-12: at Maryland, at North Carolina, Duke, at Georgia

If Tech is in a position to win the Coastal Division, the trip North Carolina will be huge. The Tar Heels return Bryn Renner and Johnny White in the backfield, giving Carolina a dynamic offensive attack. Georgia will be strong as well. As mentioned earlier, Duke may be playing for a bowl bid, which would make that game the Blue Devils’ Super Bowl. It could be a harder November slate, but it’s manageable.

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Presbyterian, Middle Tennessee and even BYU should scare no one, so a 3-1 non-conference record should be expected. Drawing Maryland and Boston College from the Atlantic is a huge break as well. Even if the Yellow Jackets are a disappointment in 2011, five wins are virtually guaranteed. It’s hard to say how good Georgia Tech will be in 2012, but at least the schedule will give the Jacekts a chance to succeed. Difficulty: 5

Maryland

Games 1-4: William & Mary, at Temple, Connecticut, at West Virginia

The Tribe was a mere 5-6 last season, so the Terps should at least get off on the right foot. Temple will struggle without stud running back Bernard Pierce. The Randy Edsall bowl between Maryland and UConn will be an exhibit in bad football, so there’s that. West Virginia should stomp Maryland with ease. Even so, Terps couldn’t ask for a much more generous opening month.

Games 5-8: Wake Forest, at Virginia, NC State, at Boston College

Wake Forest must go to College Park, which gives that contest a smidgen of intrigue, but could be rolling coming off should-win games against Army and Duke. Virginia and NC State will have their way with the Terrapins, and Boston College may be desperately in need of a win for its bowl chances.

Games 9-12: Georgia Tech, at Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina

This may very well be the Randy Edsall Death March, with four potential blowout losses in a row to end the season. If Maryland even had a prayer of contending for the conference championship, Terp fans would be up in arms about this minefield of a final stretch. As it is, it will simply serve as a dreadful ending to a dreadful season.

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I’m not too shy about how bad of a shape Maryland is in. As easy as the opening month is for the Terrapins, the final month is the exact opposite. Three wins in September may be all Maryland gets. They sure as heck aren’t getting any in November. Mark it down. Difficulty: 7

Miami

Games 1-4: at Boston College, at Kansas State, Bethune-Cookman, at Georgia Tech

Miami is going to be very young, which may or may not be a good thing in this case as the Hurricanes try and move on from the Nevin Shapiro scandal. Having experience at QB with Stephen Morris gives them a fighting chance in the first two games, and the Georgia Tech game is winnable if the Yellow Jackets are reeling. Trying to pencil in a record for the U’s opening month is a crap shoot. It’s there for the taking, though.

Games 5-8: NC State, at Notre Dame (in Chicago), North Carolina, Florida State

A very tough road in the dog days of the season. The Wolfpack will enter its trip to Miami following back-to-back games against FCS foes, who Tom O’Brien’s club will be plenty rested and prepared for that contest. Notre Dame will be improved over the 2011 outfit that finished 8-5, and the Irish will have the upper hand in that contest. North Carolina is Miami’s best shot at a win in October, and it’s not a good one at that.

Games 9-12: Virginia Tech (Thursday), at Virginia, South Florida, at Duke

The Hurricanes will have an extra five days to prepare for Virginia Tech, who lost in Miami the last time the two met on a Thursday night in 2008. The Virginia game could play a pivotal role in the Coastal race if the Cavaliers are still alive in the hunt for the division title. South Florida is a strong club that will have no problem feasting on what may be a reeling Miami club. At least it all ends generously with a trip to Durham.

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Trips to Kansas State and Chicago for Notre Dame, not to mention a November date with South Florida, make for one of the more difficult non-conference schedules in the ACC in 2012. The season opener against Boston College is no walk in the park, either, as far as opening weekends go. It figures to be a rebuilding year in Coral Gables, and the hellish month of October could make for some tough times for the U.

NC State

Games 1-4: Tennessee (Friday in Atlanta), at UConn, South Alabama, The Citadel

The ‘Pack get things started in the two-night Atlanta affair to kick off the season with an intriguing match-up with the Volunteers. The quarterback match-up between Tyler Bray and Mike Glennon is worth the price of admission on its own. State will be on autupilot for the rest of the opening month, so knocking off the Vols could create some early-season buzz in Raleigh a la 2010.

Games 5-8: at Miami, Florida State, at Maryland, at North Carolina

Miami isn’t exactly a death trap for visiting foes, and the Wolfpack could be riding very high if it starts the year 4-0. An unbeaten start would create a colossal match-up with Florida State in mid-October in front of an electric crowd at Carter-Finley Stadium. Maryland and North Carolina are both winnable games, especially when you consider that it’s been six years since the Tar Heels beat the Wolfpack.

Games 9-12: Virginia, Wake Forest, at Clemson, Boston College

There’s a good chance the Wolfpack will be in the thick of the Atlantic Division race, meaning the Virginia came could turn out to be a very important one for all parties involved. Wake Forest won’t be an easy win late in the season, especially with a showdown in Death Valley looming on the horizon.

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This schedule sets up extremely well for what should be a solid Wolfpack squad to make a run at a conference title. The trips to North Carolina and Clemson will be stern tests, but getting Florida State at home is a sizable break for Glennon and Co.

North Carolina

Games 1-4: Elon, at Wake Forest, at Louisville, East Carolina

It’s not a miserable opening month, but one that could end terribly if the Heels aren’t careful. Larry Fedora can ease into his new gig with Elon, but Wake Forest won’t go quietly, especially in Winston-Salem. Louisville will be much improved in 2012 under third-year coach Charlie Strong. The Cardinals may even be favored in that game. East Carolina knows a thing or two about beating the big boys. An unbeaten start is possible, but so too is a three-loss opening month.

Games 5-8: Idaho, Virginia Tech, at Miami, at Duke

Idaho finished 2-10 last season, so no worries there for the Heels. Carolina notoriously gives Virginia Tech a tight game every year, and it obviously helps having that game in Chapel Hill. Miami will be in the midst of its Murderer’s Row mid-season stretch, so the ‘Canes may not be at full strength. Duke can knock off the Heels if they aren’t careful.

Games 9-12: NC State, Georgia Tech, at Virginia (Thursday), Maryland

As noted before, the Wolfpack have owned the Tar Heels in recent years, and that late October game could be an elimination game of sorts for either or both teams in the conference race. The contests with Georgia Tech and Virginia are no different. With only five days to prepare for a trip to Charlottesville, the game against the Cavaliers will be a tough one. Maryland should be an automatic W in the final week.

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This slate is dotted with tough games, with the toughest stretch coming from NC State to Virginia late in the season. It’s a very intriguing non-conference portion of the schedule, with a couple of challenging but not overwhelming contests. Missing Florida State and Clemson is a huge break for a Carolina team that will have the potential to challenge for the Coastal Division title. Difficulty: 6

Virginia

Games 1-4: Richmond, Penn State, at Georgia Tech, at TCU

The Wahoos should start 2-0 before traveling to Atlanta for an early showdown with Georgia Tech that will set the tone for Virginia’s hopes to contend for the Coastal Division. The trip to TCU is extremely difficult; the Horned Frogs return many key pieces from its 11-2 team last season.

Games 5-8: Louisiana Tech, at Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest

…and the award for easiest month of the season goes to! Wow, what an easy October for the Cavaliers. Wake Forest is the toughest game in this stretch, which is a very good thing. Louisiana Tech could stun the ‘Hoos if they don’t take the Bulldogs seriously (Tech went 8-5 last season). Virginia could be 6-2, 7-1 or maybe even 8-0 two-thirds of the way through the season. It’s there for the taking.

Games 9-12: at NC State, Miami, North Carolina (Thursday), at Virginia Tech

As I mentioned earlier, the NC State game will be a critical one in the conference race. Virginia absolutely owns Miami in recent years, and now the ‘Hoos have the upper hand on paper, for once. They must face the Tar Heels on short rest, but at least there’s no travel involved. The annual battle with the Hokies certainly seems like it will mean much more in the near future than it has over the last decade.

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Three wins should be expected from the non-conference slate, and the cross-divisional games are far from difficult. Virginia will be young but talented, and the schedule bodes well for the Cavaliers to take another step in the rebuilding process in Mike London’s third season as head coach. The road games are tough, but the home slate is incredibly soft. Difficulty: 6

Virginia Tech

Games 1-4: Georgia Tech (Labor Day), Austin Peay, at Pittsburgh, Bowling Green

Yet again, the Hokies open with a marquee match-up on opening weekend. For the second time in three years, they open the season on Labor Day. The Hokies have struggled in such season openers, but this will be the first time they’ll open with a big game in Lane Stadium. If they can get past a fired-up Yellow Jackets’ team, the rest of the opening month is not cause for much concern.

Games 5-8: Cincinnati (in Lanodover, Md.), at North Carolina, Duke, at Clemson

The Bearcats will be one of the least experienced teams in the country next season, while the Hokies’ return a wealth of experience, especially on the defensive side of the ball. It’s a smart move for the Hokies to play a game in the northern Virginia/DC area, where they have a deep alumni base. North Carolina always gives Tech trouble, so hitting the road to face the Heels will be a good mid-season test and a tune-up for the trip to Clemson two weeks later. The Tigers dominated the Hokies in 2011 in Blacksbug and on a neutral field. What level of confidence will the Hokies have going into Death Valley? It could be a battle of unbeatens.

Games 9-12: at Miami (Thursday), Florida State (Thursday), at Boston College, Virginia

The Hokies and Hurricanes always stage classic battles regardless of the talent gap between the two teams. The Hokies will have to be prepared for a tough match-up in Coral Gables instead of looking ahead to what should be one of the more highly anticipated home games in recent memory against Florida State. That could be a preview of the ACC Championship Game, which usually doesn’t happen in late November. In the best case, it may be an elimination game for the national title race. Then again, this is the ACC, so probably not.

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The Hokies love those early-season premier games, but at least they managed to host it this time, and they have all summer to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option. If they beat the Yellow Jackets, it’s hard to see the Hokies losing before the trip to Clemson in late October. Drawing Florida State and Clemson is rough, but Tech has the horses to win either of those games. Another 10-win season is a safe expectation. Difficulty: 8.

Wake Forest

Games 1-4: Liberty, at North Carolina, Florida State, Army

A 2-2 start would be the worst-case scenario, but Wake does catch Florida State a week before Clemson, which helps its case against the Seminoles. North Carolina is also winnable, but a split of the first four games is the likely outcome in the Deacons’ case.

Games 5-8: Duke, at Maryland, at Virginia, Clemson (Thursday)

Wake should pick up two wins against Duke and Maryland before playing a couple of the big boys of the league in a span of six days. The Clemson game will be one of the biggest in school history if Wake is 5-2 or 4-3 and the Tigers are off to the strong start its expected to have. Another 2-2 split is expected in this stretch, putting Wake in position for a second straight bowl appearance with a strong finish down the stretch.

Games 9-12: Boston College, at NC State, at Notre Dame, Vanderbilt

If Wake is indeed in need of a couple wins to make the postseason, it’s going to be a challenge, but not impossible. Boston College should be slight underdogs to the Deacons, but every other game favors Wake’s opponent. Vanderbilt a program on the rise, but that could be a very compelling game for the Deacons if they are gunning for win No. 6.

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Liberty, Army, Notre Dame and Vanderbilt is a fair non-conference schedule. Virginia, Duke and North Carolina is a challenging but not all too formidable cross-divisional slate. There’s a distance chance Wake could steal an upset win at home against either Florida State or Clemson, but the rest of the home schedule is relatively easy. It’s a middle of the road schedule for a middle of the road team. Difficulty: 6

Weekend Highlight: don’t write off Clemson just yet

Let’s go back to Feb. 4 for just a moment. Clemson had nearly erased a 17-point deficit to lowly Virginia Tech before falling just short in Blacksburg, 67-65. The loss dropped the Tigers to 3-5 in the ACC and 11-11 overall. Any semblance of NCAA Tournament hopes had vanished. Or so it would seem.

Clemson dropped its next game in similar fashion, trailing by as many as 14 in the second half against Maryland before losing 64-62. The season was spiraling out of control, and although second-year coach Brad Brownell wasn’t in any danger of losing his job, it at least gave serious question to his fitness for the job.

Clemson has been rolling ever since. Saturday’s 72-69 win in overtime against NC State drew the Tigers into a tie for sixth place in the ACC alongside the Wolfpack. A painfully slow start this season has Clemson on the wrong side of the bubble, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t hope for the suddenly streaking Tigers.

Their final two games are Thursday against Virginia Tech, then Saturday at Florida State. Should they win both, they would finish the regular season 17-13 overall, 9-7 in the ACC. They would own three wins against the RPI Top 50 entering the ACC Tournament. They would likely seal either the fifth or sixth seed for the tournament, meaning a first-round cakewalk against Boston College or Georgia Tech would await them.

Assuming the Tigers move on from the first round, they would face either Florida State, Virginia or Miami in all likelihood in the second round, depending on how the final standings shake out. Given the way the Tigers will be playing (hypothetically winning seven of their last nine), a win over any of those teams would hardly be an upset. That would move Clemson into the ACC semifinals with a 19-13 overall record and four wins against the RPI Top 50.

The semifinal game would likely come against the loser of the Duke-North Carolina game. This is where it would get interesting. A win over either the Blue Devils or Tar Heels would give Clemson 20 wins overall, five against the RPI Top 50 and would give them a legitimate case for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

 

This is undoubtedly asking a lot of the Tigers, but the overriding theme of this blog post is to show that Clemson’s not dead in the water just yet. You can criticize early-season losses to Coastal Carolina, South Carolina, UTEP, Hawaii and East Tennessee State — and you’d have a valid argument for why the Tigers don’t belong. But to the credit of the Tiger seniors like Andre Young and Tanner Smith, they haven’t folded their tent when many teams would.

If the season ended today, the Tigers wouldn’t have a chance in hell of making the dance. With an RPI in the 130-140 range (depending on which source you use) and seven losses against teams ranked 100 or worse in the RPI, there’s a multitude of evidence that Clemson doesn’t belong. That being said, the main focus of the selection committee is to select the 36 at-large teams who are playing the best basketball at the end of the season. A Clemson team with 20 wins, including nine of its last 11 and an ACC Championship Game appearance certainly fits the mold.

If I had to put a percentage on the likelihood that Clemson plays its way into the NCAA Tournament, I’d go with 20 at best. But have hope, Lloyd Christmas Tiger fans, because I’m telling you there is a chance.

Marshall’s career night silences the critics

It turns out Kendall Marshall reads the newspaper, too.

Prior to North Carolina’s trip to NC State Tuesday night, the Raleigh News & Observer previewed the game in its morning paper. It broke the game down position by position in an effort to decide who had the edge at each spot.

The point guard edge went to State’s Lorenzo Brown, a fine player and an integral part of the Wolfpack’s success this season. When the story reached Marshall’s hands before the game, it gave the ACC’s assist leader a chip on his shoulder.

The article labeled Marshall “one-dimensional.”

Fair enough, right? After all, prior to Tuesday, Marshall averaged just 6.6 points per game to go with his gaudy 9.6 assists mark. He is known as the penultimate deferrer, frequently passing up open shots to give his ultra-talented teammates the chance to score. He’s shooting worse than 30 percent from three-point range and is constantly being knocked (somewhat unfairly) for his lack of quickness on the defensive end of the floor.

None of those flaws showed up Tuesday. Marshall scored a career-high 22 points on 7-of-8 shooting (4-of 5 from long range), 13 assists…and zero turnovers. Statistically speaking, it was one of the best games by a Tar Heel point guard ever. Let that sink in for a minute.

It’s no secret that Marshall bases his willingness to shoot by whether or not he’s hot early. If he misses his first shot or two, he may not shoot again save for a lay-up here or there. If he hits a couple shots early, he’s a little more frugal with his shot selection. Tuesday’s game was unlike anything we’ve seen before.

Marshall drained his first two three’s as Carolina jumped ahead 28-18 midway through the first half. To the Wolfpack’s credit, they didn’t fold despite a scorching start by the Tar Heels.

As the ‘Pack clawed their way back into the game, it was Marshall who helped Carolina pull away once more — with his shooting. Carolina led 37-36 late in the first half when Harrison Barnes sunk two free throws, followed by Marshall’s third trey of the game, and the Heels went to the locker room leading 46-41.

Carolina controlled the second half, per usual, en route to an 86-74 victory. On a rare night that the Heels were dominated inside, Marshall’s sharp shooting was the major difference in the game. The Wolfpack outscored Carolina 42-22 in the paint.

Time and again this season we’ve heard “If UNC can do _____, it can’t be stopped.” Well, the Tar Heels’ ability to shoot the ball is the absolute No. 1 difference between what will make them a very good team or a great one.

For instance, on the occasions this season that Carolina has looked the best this season, it’s when the Heels have been hot from outside. One of their strongest performances of the year was the loss at Kentucky, when they shot 10-of-18 from deep.

Everyone knows about Carolina’s strength in the frontcourt. Tyler Zeller and John Henson form the most formidable inside tandem in the country, while Harrison Barnes is the most NBA-ready small forward in the nation, a mortal lock to be a top-3 pick in June.

It’s up to the likes of Reggie Bullock (11 points Tuesday, 3-of-6 from three), P.J. Hairston (slumping: three points in six minutes Tueday), and ultimately Marshall to space the floor with their ability to score on the perimeter. If not, teams will continue to collapse on the post and clog the lane. Even then, only a handful of teams can beat the Tar Heels, but they can’t win a national championship without a balanced attack.

If Tuesday night was a sign of things to come from Marshall, it will be the missing ingredient to a deep March run that has always been assumed to end in New Orleans.

Note to America: don’t sell Kendall Marshall short.

LINKS

—   Virginia escaped Blacksburg with a 61-59 win over Virginia Tech in a game that the Cavaliers couldn’t afford to lose. TechHoops was encouraged by the play of the Hokies’ four freshmen in the loss.

—   The Cavaliers are dropping like flies, though, and it’s at the worst possible time. Malcolm Brogdon played through “throbbing” pain at the end of the game, and Paul Jesperson had to play a career-high 28 minutes (although he played very well). Brian Schwartz at Streaking the Lawn has a full analysis from the ‘Hoos side of things.

—   Ken Sugiura of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution hits the highlights of Georgia Tech’s embarrassing 56-37 home loss to Clemson Tuesday.

—   Maryland’s comeback win over Miami felt like three wins in one to Terps’ coach Mark Turgeon. I’ll have more on this game later, but what an impressive effort from Turgeon’s club.

—   Duke Hoop Blog is a must-read for all ACC fans, not just Blue Devil faithful. This post from Sunday was a follow-up to an extremely thoroughly researched blog post comparing each ACC team’s success at home compared to on the road. It’s stat heavy, but the graphs are great and it’s really interesting if you’re in to that stuff.

VIDEO OF THE DAY

Holy. Freaking. Crap. This latest posterization comes courtesy of Gabe York, a consensus top-100 recruit who’ll be dunking on some poor folks in the Pac-12 next season as a member of the Arizona Wildcats’ No. 1 recruiting class. I’ve watched this about 50 times since yesterday.

February 21st Preview

Clemson at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (RSN/ESPN3)

Storyline: Don’t let Clemson’s 5-7 conference record fool you. Five of those seven losses have come by four points or fewer. The Tigers are a dangerous team that vastly underachieved in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Over the next few weeks, they have a chance to be a major spoiler if they can embrace that role. Tonight’s trip to Georgia Tech is a game they should win, especially considering the Yellow Jackets are without suspended star Glen Rice, Jr.

Player to watch: Milton Jennings is the most enigmatic player in the ACC. The brash Clemson forward has steadily improved as the season has progressed, with the exception of a two-game suspension at the end of January (the Tigers lost both game by a combined six points). He’s shooting better than 42 percent from three-point range in conference play. Combine his length with a quick step and such a sweet stroke from deep, and Jennings is a nightmare matchup for most teams. He’s averaging 10.8 points per game since returning from suspension. There’s not a player on Georgia Tech’s roster who matches up well with Jennings. As is the case on many nights, Jennings’ focus tonight may be the difference between a Clemson win or loss.

Prediction: Georgia Tech is going nowhere fast, whereas Clemson hasn’t quit on coach Brad Brownell despite such an awful start to the season. The Rice suspension wasn’t exactly what the last-place Yellow Jackets needed with five (now four) games left. The winner tonight will break a 60-60 tie in the all-time series between the two programs.

CLEMSON 65, GEORGIA TECH 54

North Carolina at NC State, 8 p.m. (ACC Network split/ESPN3)

Storyline: I went into great detail yesterday on NC State’s woes since halftime of last Thursday’s loss at Duke. For North Carolina, the opportunity remains for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (even it is in the West, which is inevitable). The Tar Heels have won three straight games by an average of 16.3 points since falling to Duke, but they’ve done so while shooting just 28 percent from three-point range.

The Heels absolutely smother teams on the boards (plus-12 margin on the season), and it’s their dominance in the frontcourt that makes it almost impossible for most teams to stand a chance.

Player to watch: In the games that Carolina has struggled this season, it’s been because its opponent has been lights out from long range. Scott Wood has the ability to fill that role tonight. He leads the ACC, shooting 42 percent from three on the season. If he can get hot early and energize the home crowd, the Wolfpack can absolutely pull off the upset. He’ll have to reverse recent fortunes, however. Wood is just 5-of-27 from the field in his last three games entering tonight.

The Tar Heels have shown a propensity for getting flustered when they fall behind early on the road. If North Carolina jumps out to an early lead and Wood isn’t knocking down outside shots, well, there’s very little chance for State in this game.

Prediction: The Heels won the first match-up 74-55, thanks to the aforementioned dominance on the glass. Carolina outrebounded State 48-26 in that contest. The tallest player in the Wolfpack’s main rotation is 6-foot-9 DeShawn Painter. John Henson and Tyler Zeller should have their way in the paint per usual, and NC State will continue to fall apart at the seams, letting an at-large bid slip through its grasp in the process.

NORTH CAROLINA 79, NC STATE 62

Miami at Maryland, 8 p.m. (ACC Network Split/ESPN3)

Storyline: The Hurricanes continue to claw their way back into the at-large discussion with a trip to Maryland tonight. The importance of this contest for Jimmy Larranaga’s club cannot be understated. Miami simply cannot afford a loss tonight if it hopes to attract the attention of the selection committee. Maryland is in complete disarray following a 27-point loss to Virginia.

With Pe’Shon Howard lost for the season, the Terps have lost a significant piece of their backcourt, one that would have been invaluable matching up with Miami’s trio of Durand Scott, Shane Larkin and Malcolm Grant.

Players to watch: Kenny Kadji has quietly assembled a spectacular season in his first year of eligibility with Miami. The former Florida transfer is averaging nearly 13 points and six rebounds per game while shooting 54 percent from the field. His length at 6-foot-11 makes him an extreme mismatch on the offensive end against anyone not named John Henson. Maryland’s inexperienced frontcourt will have trouble matching the physicality of Kadji and Reggie Johnson inside.

Prediction:The Terrapins nearly stole a win in Miami when the teams last met on February 1^st, instead falling in double overtime 90-86. It’s been a bumpy road for Mark Turgeon and company since then, losing three of five, including having the bottom fall out against the Cavaliers. Miami has much more to play for tonight, and that should be enough to carry them to an important victory on the road.

MIAMI 66, MARYLAND 60

Virginia at Virginia Tech, 9 p.m. (ESPNU)

Storyline: Seth Greenberg once famously said the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee would be “certifiably insane” if it left his Hokies out of the big dance. Well, Greenberg himself might have earned that moniker Monday when he told reporters he was focused on building the Hokies’ tournament resume, despite a 4-8 record in ACC play and absolutely no shot whatsoever at earning an at-large bid. That said, the Hokies have played much better of late, splitting their last six games after a 1-5 start in league play. Virginia, meanwhile, has lost three of five and is in danger of falling out of at-large consideration if the swoon continues. Exacting revenge on the Hokies, who stole a one-point win in Charlottesville last month, is step number one in avoiding such a catastrophe.

Players to watch: It’s no secret that Mike Scott is the key to everything for the Cavaliers, but he’ll no doubt step on the court tonight with a chip on his shoulder. The Hokies held Scott to 10 points in the last match-up, his lowest output for any game in which he’s played at least 30 minutes this season. Tech will be without starting center Victor Davila tonight, placing the burden of containing Scott on the less experienced shoulders of Cadarian Raines and C.J. Barksdale. To make an educated guess, Scott won’t quite be kept in check like last time.

Prediction:  A Virginia loss would raise some serious red flags for Tony Bennett’s club heading into a difficult final stretch of the season. The blowout win over Maryland seemed to cure many ills, at least temporarily. Virginia Tech is anything but an offensive juggernaut, but Greenberg’s recent strategy of playing the guys with the highest effort in practice has kept them competitive in recent games. Contrary to what the Hokies’ head coach may say, there is much more on the line in this game for the Cavaliers.

VIRGINIA 55, VIRGINIA TECH 50

Two game skid has Wolfpack crumbling

Opportunity rarely, if ever, knocks twice. NC State had its chance. In a span of 60 minutes of basketball, the Wolfpack fell from the precipice of NCAA Tournament lock status to a bubbly purgatory that is every team’s greatest fear.

Last Thursday night’s game at Duke was the Wolfpack’s chance to earn a validating win. They entered with an 18-7 record, 7-3 in the ACC. They were 0-4 against the RPI top 25, however, and just 2-5 against the top 50. The Selection Committee appreciates a win or two against the best of the best.

By halftime, it looked like the Wolfpack would capture that much-needed signature win. Bubble teams that beat top 10 teams on the road are typically safely in the dance. A 16-point halftime lead had been pushed to 19 when, with just 11 minutes remaining, the Blue Devils stormed back to shock the ‘Pack, 78-73.

Saturday offered a quick turnaround and an immediate shot at redemption when the ‘Pack hosted Florida State. The Seminoles came to Raleigh following an extremely shaky two-week stretch that included a head-scratching loss to Boston College and a last-second win over Virginia Tech. They were ripe for the picking, or so it would seem.

The ‘Noles jumped down the Wolfpack’s throats early, taking a 25-16 lead. After an only half-spirited rally, Florida State dominated a lethargic State team in a 76-62 win. Scott Wood, the ACC’s leading three-point shooter, was 1-for-6 from long range (1-for-10 from the field).

Wood wasn’t the only ice-cold Wolfpack player Saturday — far from it, in fact. Other than C.J. Leslie (21 points on 8-of-14 shooting), State scored 41 points on 9-of-44 shooting. They call that the Hangover Effect.

There’s no time for sulking in a life on the bubble. The unexpected collapse in Durham zapped the life out of the Wolfpack. They are now in grave danger of never recovering from it. They welcome a loaded North Carolina team into the RBC Center on Tuesday in what amounts to a virtual must-win game.

Now, typically, a team fighting for its postseason life in a late February game at home against a top-10 team is the perfect recipe for an upset (just ask Virginia Tech…oh, wait). However, NC State’s confidence level is a serious question mark now. Can the ‘Pack turn everything around and knock off a team with six future NBA draft picks? The odds are not in their favor.

Mark Gottfried has done an admirable job molding the remnants of the forgettable Sidney Lowe era into a competitive unit. After all, State’s seven ACC wins so far this season are more than it had in any of Lowe’s six seasons. Unfortunately, an abrupt turn of event may very well leave the Wolfpack out of the dance yet again.

LINKS

Before we finish with the Wolfpack, I just want to say that I do not give two you-know-whats about this Karl Hess/Tom Gugliotta fiasco. If you haven’t heard about it, go read any NC State/college basketball blog. It’s getting an absurd level of attention. It sounds like Hess was in the wrong here, and he probably was, but I would much rather concern myself with what’s actually going on in the games themselves than this hogwash.

Gugliotta/Corchiani/Hess Links

Footage of ejections

NC State Not Happy About Ejections (ESPN.com)

Gugliotta and Corchiani should be recognized at UNC game (StateFansNation)

Jeff Goodman/Matt Norlander’s take (CBSSports.com)

Moving on…

—        Nerlens Noel, the recently re-classified No. 1 prospect for 2012, recently visited Syracuse and Kentucky. North Carolina is in the mix for Noel, and some think Duke shouldn’t be counted out yet either. His recruitment is wide open at this point, but he’s submitting diary entries to ESPN.com to keep everyone updated on the process.

—        Basketball Prospectus’ John Gasaway attended last week’s mock NCAA Tournament Selection Conference. Making it to this conference myself is on my personal bucket list. Here’s his recount of the weekend.

—        Rush The Court is a must-read for college basketball fans. Here’s Zach Hayes “Bubble Report” following an exciting weekend. Illinois is still alive…barely.

VIDEO OF THE DAY

Finally…finally Virginia Tech finishes on the right end of a buzzer-beater. Dorenzo Hudson’s trey as time expired lifted the Hokies over Georgia Tech in overtime on Saturday. Here’s another look if you missed it.

ACC Player of the Year Watch: Zeller vs. Scott By the Numbers

The battle for ACC Player of the Year has shifted into fifth gear now, with every team facing six more games to play in the regular season. The league has been dominated by size…lots and lots of size. There are tremendous guards such as Kendall Marshall, Terrell Stoglin and Austin Rivers, who are all worthy of considerable distinction. However, the cream of the crop belongs amongst the men who must duck their heads to leave the locker room.

Harrison Barnes was the overwhelming favorite for the league’s top individual honor in the preseason, but a good, albeit vanilla season with no truly eye-opening moments has put his chances on its last leg.

John Henson enjoyed a monster start to the season, but his play has cooled off in ACC play, and while he’s still one of the most dominant players in the league, he’s been overshadowed by a pair of fellow paint-dwellers in the midst of compiling memorable seasons.

It is now apparent that either Tyler Zeller or Mike Scott will walk away at season’s end honored as the league’s top player. It’s an airtight battle that almost exclusively hinges on what areas of the game the respective voters will emphasize.

So let’s take a look at where Zeller and Scott size up with one another through February 14.

Scoring

Scott plays about 3.5 more minutes per game (30.2) than Zeller (26.9), which explains his higher scoring output (17.1 to 16.0). If you account for the discrepancy in playing time, Zeller’s point per 40 minutes (23.8) is reasonably better than Scott’s (22.6).

However, North Carolina plays at an incredibly faster pace. The Tar Heels average 13 more possessions per game (74.1, seventh in the country) than Virginia (60.8, 340^th out of 344 teams). On the surface, this might show that Scott touches the ball far fewer times than Zeller. Scott doesn’t share the floor with three other potential All-Americans, however. Scott averages 10.6 attempts from the floor. Zeller averages 10.5. Scott actually is a higher volume shooter than Zeller, but scores at a less efficient rate.

That said, Scott is a much more versatile scorer. He has the ability to draw his defender away from the basket and make jump shots or even occasionally attack off the dribble. Zeller has become almost exclusively a back-to-the-basket player; in years past he was good for an 18-foot jump shot or two each game, but that has disappeared this season for whatever reason.

Both are extremely good free throw shooters for big men. Scott owns a narrow edge at 81 percent compared to 78.4 for Zeller. Zeller does draw fouls at a relatively higher rate than Scott. Zeller’s free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is 52.8 percent; Scott’s is 49.6.

If I had to pick one player to give the ball to in the final seconds of a tie game, Scott’s my guy. Zeller has made some memorably important shots in his career, including the lay-up at the buzzer to beat Miami in the ACC Tournament last season. Scott is a more creative scorer, and that’s where I give him the edge.

ADVANTAGE: SCOTT

This is going be even closer than I thought.

A visual display of just how similar Zeller and Scott are as scorers, via StatSheet.com

Rebounding

Zeller has a big advantage here — about four inches’ worth, to be exact. The Tar Heels’ seven-footer is a monster on the glass, especially of late. In ACC play, he leads the conference averaging 10.8 boards per game. He’s hauled in double-figure rebounds in 12 of his last 16 games, including at least 17 twice.

Scott is aggressive on the boards as well, which he must be considering he occasionally gives up two to three inches on his counterpart in the paint. He accounts for a significantly higher percentage of his team’s defensive rebounds (23.4 percent, 55^th in the country) than Zeller does for Carolina (19.9 percent, 208^th). Of course, this is a direct effect of Zeller sharing the glass with rebounding machine John Henson, whose 10.3 rebounds per game lead the conference.

Zeller holds a big advantage on the offensive glass. Again, this is as much a factor of the team he plays for as anything else. Scott takes a higher percentage of his team’s shots, which in theory decreases his chances of grabbing offensive boards. Zeller’s 4.1 offensive rebounds per game ranks fifth nationally. Scott averages 2.4, which is 220^th. Zeller pulls down 15.4 percent of potential offensive boards (seventh nationally), while Scott’s mark is 10.9 percent (264^th). That last stat accounts for the aforementioned theoretical difference between the players’ respective teams. Zeller is much better at giving his team second chances offensively, which is a considerable reason why Carolina leads the nation in scoring.

ADVANTAGE: ZELLER

Scott and Zeller's rebounding match-up, via StatSheet.com

Defense

Henson gets the lion’s share of attention as Carolina’s best defender, but it’s Zeller who routinely earns the team’s defensive player of the game honors as handed out by the coaching staff. He’s not the dynamic, game-changing shot blocker that Henson is, but Zeller’s fundamental post defense is impeccable. He is incredibly disciplined (just 2.4 fouls per game, 0 career foul-outs), and his footwork is spectacular. He is rarely beat in post isolation situations.

Scott uses his athleticism to account for a disadvantage in height, and he has tremendously reduced his foul rate since earlier in his career. Against the toughest competition he’s seen all year, however, Scott struggled defensively. Who was the foe? Why, none other than North Carolina just this past Saturday. Scott battled foul trouble (which inevitably doomed the Cavaliers) while lending a hand in allowing Zeller to score 25 points on 9-of-16 shooting.

Neither player is a ferocious presence as a shot blocker, but Zeller naturally does so at a higher rate. Zeller average 1.4 blocks per game, Scott just 0.4. It’s hard to think Zeller’s number wouldn’t hover around at least two or so if Henson didn’t swat everything away himself. Nevertheless, neither play rely integrally on shot blocking as much as they do basic defensive principles. In that respect, Scott is sharp, but Zeller is sharper.

ADVANTAGE: ZELLER

Zeller vs. Scott defensive chart, via StatSheet.com

Value

This is where the biggest separation between the two players lies, and could very well be the biggest tipping point in voters’ minds when they submit their ballots next month.

Without Scott, Virginia might not even be in contention for the NIT, let alone the NCAA Tournament. He’s basically the only offensive weapon on a team that rests its laurels on shutting teams down defensively and letting Scott carry the load on the other end.

He’s played at a consistently high level all season, and quite frankly his play stands out more because its part of a resurgent season for Virginia, as opposed to a Carolina season that’s anything but unusual. If the two players swapped teams, everything would be reversed. Zeller would be the center of national attention carrying the load for one of the more surprising teams in America, while Scott would be just another key piece on a loaded team unsurprisingly marching towards an ACC title.

Nevertheless, it is what it is, and Scott’s impact on Virginia is much more noticeable than Zeller’s at North Carolina. Of course, without Zeller, the Tar Heels’ Final Four chances plummet, but would at least exist. Without Scott, Virginia wouldn’t have a prayer of making the dance.

Of course, the ultimate equalizer can be if North Carolina wins the regular season championship. Quite often, the best player on the best team (unfairly) picks up the hardware. The Tar Heels are in a three-way tie for first place at 8-2 with six games to play, and Virginia is all but out of contention at 6-4 in conference play.

ADVANTAGE: SCOTT

Final Verdict:

The blessing and the curse of this post is that there is no verdict yet. If you’re keeping score at home, you’ll notice both Scott and Zeller earned the nod in two categories apiece. If both players finish the season at similar paces, this will be as close of a call as we’ve seen in recent memory for the award. Zeller managed to get the better of Scott in their first match-up, but the Heels and ‘Hoos meet again on February 25. Both coaches will say that the outcome of the game is all that will matter, but Scott vs. Zeller is a hell of an undercard.

#ACCLove

Bubble Watch Update: Can the ACC get six in?

I strongly considered writing “Virginia Tech,” and being done with it. Alas, those theatrics escape us this season. The bubble watch in the ACC doesn’t include the Hokies, but that doesn’t mean there’s plenty of intrigue for a handful of teams in the conference as Selection Sunday looms only a month away.

Before the league started playing games against one another, there was some speculation that it would earn just three bids to the NCAA Tournament, which would have been an all-time low. Thanks to the emergence of a few programs (and the shear volume of dreadful teams at the bottom), that’s no longer a concern.

As many as six, count ‘em, six ACC teams are in a position to make the NCAA Tournament. In all likelihood, five will make good on that feat, but it’s going to make for some compelling basketball down the stretch, and a hell of a time in Greensboro.

LOCKS:

North Carolina… Record: 21-4…RPI: 7…Projected Seed: 2

Duke…Record: 21-4…RPI: 2…Projected Seed: 2

Nothing to see here. If either team runs the table, including the ACC Tournament, it will almost certainly garner a No. 1 seed, although it would mean going out west for the regional finals (Syracuse and Kentucky have all but secured the top spot in the East and South Region).

LOOKING GOOD:

Florida State…Record: 17-7…RPI: 26

• Good win opportunities: at NC State, vs. Duke, at Miami, at Virginia
• Bad loss opportunities: vs. Virginia Tech, vs. Clemson
• Projected final record: 21-9 (12-4)
• Projected NCAA seed: 7

The loss to Boston College will turn out to be an aberration, but it keeps the Seminoles out of the “lock” category for a little while longer. There are some tough games yet to be played, but they’ve proven capable of grinding it out in those games, so they get the benefit of the doubt in remaining safe. It would take a colossal meltdown to counterbalance signature wins over North Carolina and Duke.

Virginia…Record: 19-5…RPI: 36

• Good win opportunities: vs. North Carolina, vs. Florida State
• Bad loss opportunities: at Clemson, at Virginia Tech
• Projected final record: 23-7 (10-6)
• Projected NCAA seed: 8

A strong start gave the Cavaliers good vibrations (Side note: I know you saw the Beach Boys on the Grammys last night, they killed it. If you didn’t, YouTube it now. I’ll wait), but the loss of Assane Sene and an extended shooting slump from Sammy Zeglinski and Joe Harris has made it tough for Virginia to come away with wins against the best of the best in the league. Nevertheless, a fairly forgiving final stretch should keep the ‘Hoos safely in the tournament. An unexpected slew of losses might raise some eyebrows on the selection committee, though.

 

WORK TO BE DONE:

Miami…Record: 15-8…RPI: 34

• Good win opportunities: vs. North Carolina, vs. Florida State, at NC State
• Bad loss opportunities: vs. Wake Forest, vs. Boston College
• Projected final record: 20-9 (11-5)
• Projected NCAA seed: 10

A strong RPI will work heavily in Miami’s favor, along with the fact that it’s playing its best basketball in February and March. I have placed a lot of faith in this club over the past two years and only recently has it started to pay dividends. With winnable games against Florida State and NC State still on the table, the Hurricanes have a chance to pick up even more steam heading into the postseason. Or everything could unravel. You know, either or.

NC State…Record: 18-7…RPI: 50

• Good win opportunities: at Duke, vs. Florida State, vs. North Carolina, vs. Miami
• Bad loss opportunities: at Clemson, at Virginia Tech
• Projected final record: 20-11 (9-7)
• Projected NCAA Seed: Narrowly miss the cut

A rigorous final six games will make or break the Wolfpack, who are 1-2 against ACC foes with a winning record in conference play. They need to finish at least 3-3 over this final stretch in addition to winning a game or two in the ACC Tournament to feel safe about getting in. Their best win out of conference came against Texas, so there’s that…Of all the teams in the ACC with their postseason hopes up in the air, NC State is easily in the most precarious position.

–

So, as I see it, five ACC teams will go dancing in a month, with NC State just barely falling by the wayside. With nine games left between these six teams, there’s plenty of room for some moving and shaking as March Madness approaches. It’s going to be as fun to watch as ever.

LINKS:

Andrew Swkara of ACC Sports Journal gives us his weekly Power Rankings today with Duke sliding into the top spot. It’s obviously a point of debate, but the Blue Devils did knock off the perennial favorites in their home gym, so Mike Krzyzewski’s team should be allowed to savor its flavor of the week status for now.

Brian Favat of BC Interruption talks learning points from Boston College’s 66-65 loss to Virginia Tech. The Eagles should never have lost that game after leading by six with less than 90 seconds to play, but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that Steve Donahue is quietly doing a masterful job guiding his painfully young squad through the rigors of conference play. I picked the Eagles to win just one conference game back in January. They are a Dorian Finney-Smith tip-in away from being 4-6 and in a three-way tie for seventh in the league. I wish I could make that sound as impressive as it really is.

In case you missed it, there were some terrific mid-major games over the latter part of last week. UNLV-San Diego State, VCU-Old Dominion, St.Mary’s-Gonzaga, and Wichita State-Creighton were all joys to watch. Matt Norlander of CBSSports.com’s College Basketball blog is always good for a cute graphic that both amuses and informs. Here’s his non-BCS Power Pyramid, Valentine’s Day style from Monday morning.

Saturday Recap: Noles, Heels rebound, Duke continues to surge

Virginia is in no danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, but Saturday’s loss to North Carolina all but ended its hopes of capturing the ACC’s regular season crown.

The Cavaliers missed a golden opportunity to knock off a reeling  and banged-up Tar Heel club that was stunned by arch-nemesis Duke just three days before.

Instead, Carolina imposed its will in the post in a 70-52 win. Cavalier star Mike Scott was saddled with foul trouble after a fast start while the ‘Hoos struggled from the perimeter. Combine that with an impressive bounce-back game for Tyler Zeller and James Michael McAdoo’s best game of the season, it all spelled doom for Tony Bennett’s team.

Scott scored 10 points in the first seven and half minutes of the game before picking up his second foul at the 9:10 mark of the first half. He watched the ‘Hoos keep control of the game from the bench until halftime, when Virginia led 35-32. Less than three minutes into the second half, Scott picked up another foul, sending him back to the pine. It was all the Cavaliers could do to keep pace with the Heels in the first half sans Scott; they had no answer for Carolina in the second half.

After a forgettable ending to the Duke loss for Tyler Zeller, which included several missed free throws and a fluke tip-in to the wrong basket in the final minute, he responded with 25 points and nine rebounds Saturday. He admitted following Saturday’s win that the bitter ending to the Duke game cut him deep, but to immediately rebound three days later with the performance of the day, it doesn’t appear there will be any lingering negative effects on the seven-foot senior.

The freshman McAdoo has been the center of much criticism as he has struggled to adjust to this level, but his nine point, seven rebound effort in just 18 minutes Saturday is an encouraging sign for the Tar Heels. He shot just 3-of-9 from the field and made several questionable decisions early in the game, but seemed much more comfortable as the game progressed. He showed flashes of playing instinctively rather than with a rigidness that has plagued him all season. If he can consistently produce 15-20 quality minutes off the bench for Roy Williams, it will make a world of difference for this team heading into March.

–

Florida State, like North Carolina, endured a night to forget on Wednesday. Like the Heels, the Seminoles faced a stern test at home Saturday, and they responded with an encouraging win. They knocked off red-hot Miami 64-59 with another trademark effort from their junkyard dog-like defense.

They held Miami center Reggie Johnson to a season-low four points, opting to front him in an attempt to defend any entry passes, which clearly worked. Just three days after Boston College shocked Florida State, due in large part to 10 made three’s, Miami shot just 5-of-22 from beyond the arc.

The Hurricanes had won five straight conference games entering Saturday, including most notably an overtime win at Duke the previous Sunday. Despite the dramatic improvement by Jim Larranaga’s club, there is still work to do if the Hurricanes wish to make the NCAA Tournament. A win at Florida State would have gone a long way in that mission, and both teams were aware of that. The Seminoles have historically been an extremely streaky team, making Saturday’s game that much more dangerous. Kudos to them for winning a tough battle over their in-state rivals.

Bernard James scored 18 points for the game while shooting 7-of-8 from the floor in the second half for one of his best games of the season. He’s been largely overshadowed this season by a wealth of quality big men in the ACC, but he’s been integral to Florida State’s mid-season turnaround. He’s mostly praised for his interior defense, but he’s also second in the ACC in field goal percentage (59.9).

–

I wrote Friday that Duke could either ride the wave of momentum it created by the comeback in Chapel Hill or suffer an emotional let-down when it hosted Maryland Saturday afternoon. It ended up being a little bit of both, but most of the feelings coming out of the Blue Devils’ 73-55 win are positive.

Miles Plumlee set a new single-game rebounding record in the Mike Krzyzewski era with 22 boards. As Duke Hoop Blog sharply noted, it brings back memories of Brian Zoubek’s monster game against Maryland in 2010, when he finished with 16 points and 17 rebounds. That game sparked a ridiculous surge in his performance as Duke marched to a somewhat unexpected national championship. Plumlee has been spectacular in rare flashes this season, but is averaging just six points and six rebounds for the year. The Blue Devils hope Saturday’s game was the start of a Zoubek-esque run for the senior forward.

Oh, by the way, Austin Rivers may finally be figuring this whole facilitating problem out. He hadn’t dished out four assists or more since the second game of the season (against Presbyterian…) until doling out five dimes in a win over St. John’s two weeks ago. Including that game, he’s done it three times in his last five tries. He scored just 11 points Saturday, but finished with four assists and only two turnovers. He’s forcing fewer shots now, instead recognizing the collapsing defense when he puts the ball on the floor and looks for the open man. To put it bluntly, Duke is dangerous — Final Four dangerous.

As for Maryland, the Terps might be on the brink of spiraling out of control. The Terps announced Friday that Pe’Shon Howard would miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL, and leading scorer Terrell Stoglin came away from Saturday’s loss a bit perturbed (see the third link below). Mark Turgeon is going to turn things around in College Park eventually, but he faces a very difficult task to keep this team from falling apart at this difficult juncture in the season.

Links:

– I’m not going to lie, I’d never seen/heard of the blog Run The Floor until I saw a link to it over the weekend. This post by Michael Rogner, the site’s managing editor, uses video to break down the different ways Miami can attack offensively. It’s great stuff.

http://bloguin.com/runthefloor/2012-articles/february/hurrican-surge-canes-enter-new-waters.html

– Huge, and I mean huge kudos to Alabama head coach Anthony Grant for suspending four of his starters in less than a week’s time while the Crimson Tide are fighting for their at-large lives.

http://eye-on-college-basketball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/34800267

In today’s era of NCAA Tournament-or-bust, many coaches would sweep serious disciplinary issues under the rug (one situation in the ACC earlier this season comes to mind — I’ll let you read between the lines). It’s refreshing to see Grant working to keep his program clean even if it means sacrificing an NCAA Tournament berth.

– I considered giving this a post of its own, and if there’s any more backlash from Terrell Stoglin’s Twitter rant after the Duke loss Saturday, I’ll be sure to weigh in on the matter. Stoglin embarrassed his team, his coach, but most of all himself with his wildly inappropriate comments.

Saturday Preview: Feb. 11, 2012

The craziest week of ACC games this season continues this weekend with a chance to shake things up even further. There are four games on Saturday, three of which have direct implications on the conference championship race.

Saturday

Miami at Florida State, 1 p.m. (ESPN3)

The Hurricanes are picking up steam in their second-half surge towards the NCAA Tournament. After their stunning overtime win at Duke Sunday, they avoided a let-down in a 65-49 win at home over Virginia Tech.

The Seminoles suffered a massive blow to their ACC championship hopes when they allowed Boston College to drill 10 three’s Wednesday night in a 64-60 upset at Conte Forum.

The key for Florida State will be two-fold. First, they must slow down Reggie Johnson, who’s scored double-figures in four straight games (including 27 points against Duke). Next, they can’t allow Miami to catch fire from the outside like Boston College. The Hurricanes haven’t made fewer than seven three’s in five straight games. They don’t shoot a particularly high percentage (35 percent), but they rely heavily on outside jumpers. If they catch fire, the Seminoles are in trouble.

PREDICTION: MIAMI 67, FLORIDA STATE 65

Virginia at North Carolina, 1 p.m. (ACC Network/ESPN3)

It’s widely assumed that North Carolina will take out the frustration of Wednesday’s loss to Duke on the Cavaliers, but it’s not that simple. If Virginia dictates the tempo by eliminating extra Carolina possessions and taking care of the ball, the Cavaliers have a very, very good chance to win this game. P.J. Hairston is out with an injured foot, leaving Carolina with virtually no depth on the perimeter. Stillman White and Justin Watts must be mistake-free in spot duty.

Mike Scott has delivered a strong performance no matter the competition this season. He’s had big games against dominating front lines such as Duke and Florida State’s. North Carolina will provide the toughest test of all with Tyler Zeller, John Henson and James Michael McAdoo. If Scott can score 20 points and grab 10 rebounds (a lofty expectation, but an altogether possible one), Virginia has a chance. They Wahoos are coming off their best performance since losing Assane Sene, destroying Wake Forest 68-44. I really like the Cavaliers in this game.

PREDICITON: VIRGNIA 61, NORTH CAROLINA 60

Clemson at Wake Forest, 4 p.m. (RSN/ESPN3)

For Wake Forest, this game is an opportunity to end a skid where it’s lost eight of nine games. Clemson has lost three straight by the narrowest of margins – a combined eight points to Virginia Tech, Virginia and Maryland.

Despite its struggles, one thing Clemson does not do is turn the ball over. They lead the conference with an average +2.3 turnover margin. By the way, the Tigers haven’t won in Lawrence Joel Coliseum since 1990.

Both teams are in precarious positions, with Wake coming off the embarrassing loss to Virginia, and Clemson suffering three-straight nail-biting defeats. Clemson should win, but that is far from a guarantee that it will.

PREDICTION: WAKE FOREST 66, CLEMSON 59

Maryland at Duke, 4 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN3)

What a difference a shot makes. Suddenly, Duke is full of confidence after the comeback win over North Carolina that’s still resonating throughout the country. The Blue Devils have lost two straight at home against ACC foes, and they’re quite aware of that. Maryland has yet to find its groove under first-year coach Mark Turgeon, but the Terps showed against North Carolina they are a feisty bunch that won’t roll over for the Blue Devils.

Less than three weeks ago, Duke went into College Park and pulled away late for a 74-61 win. Alex Len was non-existent in that contest (two points, zero rebounds). That can’t happen on Saturday. He’s got to compete with Duke’s physical frontline and neutralize the battle on the glass. Duke won the rebounding battle 36-31 in the last match-up. James Padgett also must provide some spark inside for Maryland. He’s averaging nine points per game this season, third on the team.

There’s two ways this game can play out for Duke. The Blue Devils could easily come out and ride the wave of momentum that Austin Rivers created and blow Maryland away. The alternative would be a slow start, fueled by a lack of focus that has plagued this team all season. It’s hard to predict which way it will turn out.

PREDICTION: DUKE 78, MARYLAND 68

Rivers’ defining moment adds to rivalry

Capel’s runner, Williams’ put-back, Duhon’s coast-to-coast.

Now, Rivers’ dagger.

Yet another thrilling chapter to the storied Duke-North Carolina rivalry was capped by Austin Rivers’ buzzer-beating three-pointer to lift the Blue Devils to a 85-84 win in Chapel Hill.

There’s some ice old royal blue blood running through the freshman’s veins.

It would have been easy to leave Duke for dead when it trailed 82-72 with 2:39 left to play, but it would have made no sense whatsoever. In most cases — almost any one but this — the Blue Devils’ 13-2 run would be called shocking, improbable even, but when these two teams take the court together, nothing is impossible.

Tyler Zeller’s tip-in of a Duke three-pointer with 18 seconds left isn’t supposed to happen. But it did. Zeller isn’t supposed to miss 2-of-4 free throws in crunch time. But he did.

The Blue Devils showed an element of resolve and focus that they had been heavily criticized for lacking in recent weeks. On the same night that Florida State was stunned on the road by Boston College to shake up the race for the ACC title, Duke turned it on its head. The league is entirely up for grabs for the time being.

As for Rivers, the final shot put the finishing touches on easily the best game of his young career. He’s endured more than a fair share of scrutiny over the past three months, but there was little to criticize about his performance Wednesday.

Rivers’ style does not fit with Duke’s system, plain and simple. He does not facilitate the ball in the half court, and he does not move well without the ball unless it’s for a spot-up jumper. Carolina allowed Rivers to play at a pace far more conducive to his style, and the results speak for themselves. He finished with 29 points on 6-of-10 shooting from beyond the arc. Through all of the ups and downs that Rivers has been and will go through this season, he will always have this night as a staple of his legacy. This game matters that much.

The Tar Heels have spent all season in the nation’s spotlight. They are supposed to be champions. That’s not the goal. That’s the expectation. Champions do not squander ten-point leads in the final two and a half minutes to anyone. Again, another instant classic in this rivalry is far from surprising, but it does not serve as an excuse for a Carolina team that quite simply isn’t as good as everyone wants it to be.

Losing Dexter Strickland for the season with a torn ACL is a much bigger problem than it appeared on the surface even before tonight. It is forcing Kendall Marshall to play 3-4 minutes per game more than he was accustomed to, which will add up by season’s end and will by a significant hindrance the further the Heels go in March.

P.J. Hairston’s slump continued Wednesday, and he’s now averaging three points per game on 17 percent three-point shooting. The backcourt depth that was supposed to be a strength this year with Strickland and Leslie McDonald is non-existent.

Kentucky made a very loud and very clear statement Tuesday that it was the prohibitive national championship favorite with a 20-point win over seventh-ranked Florida at home. Carolina had a golden opportunity to respond Wednesday, but it couldn’t. It’s now clear that Kentucky is in a class of its own with Syracuse as only elite teams in the country. North Carolina is a cut below those two teams, along with Ohio State. The Tar Heels are better than Duke, but not Wednesday, and that’s what mattered.

Within moments, one legacy was built while another is now at risk of falling by the wayside.

Just another night on Tobacco Road.