Bubble Watch Update: Can the ACC get six in?

I strongly considered writing “Virginia Tech,” and being done with it. Alas, those theatrics escape us this season. The bubble watch in the ACC doesn’t include the Hokies, but that doesn’t mean there’s plenty of intrigue for a handful of teams in the conference as Selection Sunday looms only a month away.

Before the league started playing games against one another, there was some speculation that it would earn just three bids to the NCAA Tournament, which would have been an all-time low. Thanks to the emergence of a few programs (and the shear volume of dreadful teams at the bottom), that’s no longer a concern.

As many as six, count ‘em, six ACC teams are in a position to make the NCAA Tournament. In all likelihood, five will make good on that feat, but it’s going to make for some compelling basketball down the stretch, and a hell of a time in Greensboro.

LOCKS:

North Carolina… Record: 21-4…RPI: 7…Projected Seed: 2

Duke…Record: 21-4…RPI: 2…Projected Seed: 2

Nothing to see here. If either team runs the table, including the ACC Tournament, it will almost certainly garner a No. 1 seed, although it would mean going out west for the regional finals (Syracuse and Kentucky have all but secured the top spot in the East and South Region).

LOOKING GOOD:

Florida State…Record: 17-7…RPI: 26

• Good win opportunities: at NC State, vs. Duke, at Miami, at Virginia
• Bad loss opportunities: vs. Virginia Tech, vs. Clemson
• Projected final record: 21-9 (12-4)
• Projected NCAA seed: 7

The loss to Boston College will turn out to be an aberration, but it keeps the Seminoles out of the “lock” category for a little while longer. There are some tough games yet to be played, but they’ve proven capable of grinding it out in those games, so they get the benefit of the doubt in remaining safe. It would take a colossal meltdown to counterbalance signature wins over North Carolina and Duke.

Virginia…Record: 19-5…RPI: 36

• Good win opportunities: vs. North Carolina, vs. Florida State
• Bad loss opportunities: at Clemson, at Virginia Tech
• Projected final record: 23-7 (10-6)
• Projected NCAA seed: 8

A strong start gave the Cavaliers good vibrations (Side note: I know you saw the Beach Boys on the Grammys last night, they killed it. If you didn’t, YouTube it now. I’ll wait), but the loss of Assane Sene and an extended shooting slump from Sammy Zeglinski and Joe Harris has made it tough for Virginia to come away with wins against the best of the best in the league. Nevertheless, a fairly forgiving final stretch should keep the ‘Hoos safely in the tournament. An unexpected slew of losses might raise some eyebrows on the selection committee, though.

 

WORK TO BE DONE:

Miami…Record: 15-8…RPI: 34

• Good win opportunities: vs. North Carolina, vs. Florida State, at NC State
• Bad loss opportunities: vs. Wake Forest, vs. Boston College
• Projected final record: 20-9 (11-5)
• Projected NCAA seed: 10

A strong RPI will work heavily in Miami’s favor, along with the fact that it’s playing its best basketball in February and March. I have placed a lot of faith in this club over the past two years and only recently has it started to pay dividends. With winnable games against Florida State and NC State still on the table, the Hurricanes have a chance to pick up even more steam heading into the postseason. Or everything could unravel. You know, either or.

NC State…Record: 18-7…RPI: 50

• Good win opportunities: at Duke, vs. Florida State, vs. North Carolina, vs. Miami
• Bad loss opportunities: at Clemson, at Virginia Tech
• Projected final record: 20-11 (9-7)
• Projected NCAA Seed: Narrowly miss the cut

A rigorous final six games will make or break the Wolfpack, who are 1-2 against ACC foes with a winning record in conference play. They need to finish at least 3-3 over this final stretch in addition to winning a game or two in the ACC Tournament to feel safe about getting in. Their best win out of conference came against Texas, so there’s that…Of all the teams in the ACC with their postseason hopes up in the air, NC State is easily in the most precarious position.

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So, as I see it, five ACC teams will go dancing in a month, with NC State just barely falling by the wayside. With nine games left between these six teams, there’s plenty of room for some moving and shaking as March Madness approaches. It’s going to be as fun to watch as ever.

LINKS:

Andrew Swkara of ACC Sports Journal gives us his weekly Power Rankings today with Duke sliding into the top spot. It’s obviously a point of debate, but the Blue Devils did knock off the perennial favorites in their home gym, so Mike Krzyzewski’s team should be allowed to savor its flavor of the week status for now.

Brian Favat of BC Interruption talks learning points from Boston College’s 66-65 loss to Virginia Tech. The Eagles should never have lost that game after leading by six with less than 90 seconds to play, but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that Steve Donahue is quietly doing a masterful job guiding his painfully young squad through the rigors of conference play. I picked the Eagles to win just one conference game back in January. They are a Dorian Finney-Smith tip-in away from being 4-6 and in a three-way tie for seventh in the league. I wish I could make that sound as impressive as it really is.

In case you missed it, there were some terrific mid-major games over the latter part of last week. UNLV-San Diego State, VCU-Old Dominion, St.Mary’s-Gonzaga, and Wichita State-Creighton were all joys to watch. Matt Norlander of CBSSports.com’s College Basketball blog is always good for a cute graphic that both amuses and informs. Here’s his non-BCS Power Pyramid, Valentine’s Day style from Monday morning.