ACC Player of the Year Watch: Zeller vs. Scott By the Numbers
The battle for ACC Player of the Year has shifted into fifth gear now, with every team facing six more games to play in the regular season. The league has been dominated by size…lots and lots of size. There are tremendous guards such as Kendall Marshall, Terrell Stoglin and Austin Rivers, who are all worthy of considerable distinction. However, the cream of the crop belongs amongst the men who must duck their heads to leave the locker room.
Harrison Barnes was the overwhelming favorite for the league’s top individual honor in the preseason, but a good, albeit vanilla season with no truly eye-opening moments has put his chances on its last leg.
John Henson enjoyed a monster start to the season, but his play has cooled off in ACC play, and while he’s still one of the most dominant players in the league, he’s been overshadowed by a pair of fellow paint-dwellers in the midst of compiling memorable seasons.
It is now apparent that either Tyler Zeller or Mike Scott will walk away at season’s end honored as the league’s top player. It’s an airtight battle that almost exclusively hinges on what areas of the game the respective voters will emphasize.
So let’s take a look at where Zeller and Scott size up with one another through February 14.
Scoring
Scott plays about 3.5 more minutes per game (30.2) than Zeller (26.9), which explains his higher scoring output (17.1 to 16.0). If you account for the discrepancy in playing time, Zeller’s point per 40 minutes (23.8) is reasonably better than Scott’s (22.6).
However, North Carolina plays at an incredibly faster pace. The Tar Heels average 13 more possessions per game (74.1, seventh in the country) than Virginia (60.8, 340th out of 344 teams). On the surface, this might show that Scott touches the ball far fewer times than Zeller. Scott doesn’t share the floor with three other potential All-Americans, however. Scott averages 10.6 attempts from the floor. Zeller averages 10.5. Scott actually is a higher volume shooter than Zeller, but scores at a less efficient rate.
That said, Scott is a much more versatile scorer. He has the ability to draw his defender away from the basket and make jump shots or even occasionally attack off the dribble. Zeller has become almost exclusively a back-to-the-basket player; in years past he was good for an 18-foot jump shot or two each game, but that has disappeared this season for whatever reason.
Both are extremely good free throw shooters for big men. Scott owns a narrow edge at 81 percent compared to 78.4 for Zeller. Zeller does draw fouls at a relatively higher rate than Scott. Zeller’s free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is 52.8 percent; Scott’s is 49.6.
If I had to pick one player to give the ball to in the final seconds of a tie game, Scott’s my guy. Zeller has made some memorably important shots in his career, including the lay-up at the buzzer to beat Miami in the ACC Tournament last season. Scott is a more creative scorer, and that’s where I give him the edge.
ADVANTAGE: SCOTT
This is going be even closer than I thought.
A visual display of just how similar Zeller and Scott are as scorers, via StatSheet.com
Rebounding
Zeller has a big advantage here — about four inches’ worth, to be exact. The Tar Heels’ seven-footer is a monster on the glass, especially of late. In ACC play, he leads the conference averaging 10.8 boards per game. He’s hauled in double-figure rebounds in 12 of his last 16 games, including at least 17 twice.
Scott is aggressive on the boards as well, which he must be considering he occasionally gives up two to three inches on his counterpart in the paint. He accounts for a significantly higher percentage of his team’s defensive rebounds (23.4 percent, 55th in the country) than Zeller does for Carolina (19.9 percent, 208th). Of course, this is a direct effect of Zeller sharing the glass with rebounding machine John Henson, whose 10.3 rebounds per game lead the conference.
Zeller holds a big advantage on the offensive glass. Again, this is as much a factor of the team he plays for as anything else. Scott takes a higher percentage of his team’s shots, which in theory decreases his chances of grabbing offensive boards. Zeller’s 4.1 offensive rebounds per game ranks fifth nationally. Scott averages 2.4, which is 220th. Zeller pulls down 15.4 percent of potential offensive boards (seventh nationally), while Scott’s mark is 10.9 percent (264th). That last stat accounts for the aforementioned theoretical difference between the players’ respective teams. Zeller is much better at giving his team second chances offensively, which is a considerable reason why Carolina leads the nation in scoring.
ADVANTAGE: ZELLER
Scott and Zeller's rebounding match-up, via StatSheet.com
Defense
Henson gets the lion’s share of attention as Carolina’s best defender, but it’s Zeller who routinely earns the team’s defensive player of the game honors as handed out by the coaching staff. He’s not the dynamic, game-changing shot blocker that Henson is, but Zeller’s fundamental post defense is impeccable. He is incredibly disciplined (just 2.4 fouls per game, 0 career foul-outs), and his footwork is spectacular. He is rarely beat in post isolation situations.
Scott uses his athleticism to account for a disadvantage in height, and he has tremendously reduced his foul rate since earlier in his career. Against the toughest competition he’s seen all year, however, Scott struggled defensively. Who was the foe? Why, none other than North Carolina just this past Saturday. Scott battled foul trouble (which inevitably doomed the Cavaliers) while lending a hand in allowing Zeller to score 25 points on 9-of-16 shooting.
Neither player is a ferocious presence as a shot blocker, but Zeller naturally does so at a higher rate. Zeller average 1.4 blocks per game, Scott just 0.4. It’s hard to think Zeller’s number wouldn’t hover around at least two or so if Henson didn’t swat everything away himself. Nevertheless, neither play rely integrally on shot blocking as much as they do basic defensive principles. In that respect, Scott is sharp, but Zeller is sharper.
ADVANTAGE: ZELLER
Zeller vs. Scott defensive chart, via StatSheet.com
Value
This is where the biggest separation between the two players lies, and could very well be the biggest tipping point in voters’ minds when they submit their ballots next month.
Without Scott, Virginia might not even be in contention for the NIT, let alone the NCAA Tournament. He’s basically the only offensive weapon on a team that rests its laurels on shutting teams down defensively and letting Scott carry the load on the other end.
He’s played at a consistently high level all season, and quite frankly his play stands out more because its part of a resurgent season for Virginia, as opposed to a Carolina season that’s anything but unusual. If the two players swapped teams, everything would be reversed. Zeller would be the center of national attention carrying the load for one of the more surprising teams in America, while Scott would be just another key piece on a loaded team unsurprisingly marching towards an ACC title.
Nevertheless, it is what it is, and Scott’s impact on Virginia is much more noticeable than Zeller’s at North Carolina. Of course, without Zeller, the Tar Heels’ Final Four chances plummet, but would at least exist. Without Scott, Virginia wouldn’t have a prayer of making the dance.
Of course, the ultimate equalizer can be if North Carolina wins the regular season championship. Quite often, the best player on the best team (unfairly) picks up the hardware. The Tar Heels are in a three-way tie for first place at 8-2 with six games to play, and Virginia is all but out of contention at 6-4 in conference play.
ADVANTAGE: SCOTT
Final Verdict:
The blessing and the curse of this post is that there is no verdict yet. If you’re keeping score at home, you’ll notice both Scott and Zeller earned the nod in two categories apiece. If both players finish the season at similar paces, this will be as close of a call as we’ve seen in recent memory for the award. Zeller managed to get the better of Scott in their first match-up, but the Heels and ‘Hoos meet again on February 25. Both coaches will say that the outcome of the game is all that will matter, but Scott vs. Zeller is a hell of an undercard.
