Boy, has anything changed since you last heard from me? Just a little bit.

We’ll start with the most recent development that has left everyone’s head spinning. That’s the resurgence of Florida State, left for dead after a blowout loss against Clemson to open ACC play. The ‘Noles have won four straight, including a pair of wins against conference front-runners North Carolina and Duke.

The 33-point demolition against North Carolina was the real eye-opener. With ESPN’s College GameDay in town, the Seminoles jumped the Heels early and often. Delvydas Dulkys stole most of the headlines with his 8-for-10 performance from three-point land, but Carolina played as poorly as it could have in nearly every facet of the game anyway. Kendall Marshall committed an unprecedented seven turnovers. The Heels were 9-of-20 from the foul line, and 4-of-21 from beyond the arc.

The Tar Heels responded in their next game at Virginia Tech with a 82-68 win. The Hokies actually held a five-point lead at halftime, but it was more a product of their abnormally precise outside shooting than a lackadaisical effort by the Tar Heels. In the second half, though, Harrison Barnes led a furious charge, scoring 21 of his game-high 27 points. Roy Williams called his team’s defense in the second half the best he’s seen all year. I’ll have much more on the Heels later in the week.

Back to Florida State, where the Seminoles didn’t simply stop with their upset of Carolina. In a game perfectly set up to be a letdown, the Seminoles won convincingly against visiting Maryland, 84-70. With two confidence-building wins in their back pocket, Florida State traversed its way from Tallahassee to Durham for a late afternoon matchup with fourth-ranked Duke. Despite trailing by as many as eight points in the second half, the Seminoles never quit.

Michael Snaer’s buzzer-beating three-pointer as time expired was the game-winner, ending Duke’s 45-game home winning streak and validating the Seminoles’ performance over the past week.

The Seminoles’ recent turnaround is eerily similar to last season. That’s when the Seminoles suffered consecutive losses to Auburn and Virginia Tech. Following the game in Blacksburg, a sulking Chris Singleton sat in the locker room, refusing to even lift his head as he answered questions from the media. Most of those questions centered around the fear that the Seimnoles’ season was slipping away from them, and it certainly seemed that way. All Florida State did was return home to face No. 1 Duke, where they shocked the Blue Devils 66-61, spurring a late-season run that ended in the Sweet 16.

Two weeks ago, the Seminoles were under heavy criticism as the season was yet again in serious danger of slipping away from them. Some feared Leonard Hamilton’s job hung in the balance. The defense was suffocating, as expected, but there was no offense to speak of. In its last three games, Florida State is averaging 83.3 points.

Now, the likelihood of the Seminoles continuing to generate points at such a rate is relatively low. But as anyone who’s ever played basketball competitively will tell you, the ability to make shots consistently is as much a mental task as it is a physical one. Bursting with confidence, the Seminoles seemed primed for a run through the last six weeks of the season that should result in another trip to the dance.

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Virginia was supposed to have the third-place spot in the conference locked down. Now, thanks to the aforementioned Florida State spurt and the Cavaliers’ disheartening loss at home to Virginia Tech, nothing is certain anymore. The Hokies were in a absolute must-win situation after losing four straight games to open ACC play. It was the Cavaliers’ first game without starting center Assane Sene, who is expected to miss six weeks with a fractured ankle.

In an incredibly ugly game that Wahoo fans — and Hokie fans, for that matter — have become accustomed to watching this season, Tech held on for a not-so-scintillating 47-45 win. Dorenzo Hudson buried the game-sealing three in the final minute in his second straight game coming off the bench. Hudson has seemingly embraced the role with back-to-back productive games, which followed an extensive stretch of games where he was borderline worthless to Seth Greenberg. Hudson’s scored 28 points in his last two games and brings an energy off the bench that Greenberg has been searching for since the Hokies lost J.T. Thompson to a torn ACL in the preseason.

For Virginia, the loss was not crippling, but concerning. The Cavaliers are getting thinner by the week, it seems, and the loss of Sene will have a sizable impact on this team. He wasn’t a dominating scorer, rebounder, or shot blocker, but he is a high-effort player that works well with frontcourt mate and All-American hopeful Mike Scott. The Cavaliers’ style doesn’t typically lend itself to blowout wins or losses. They will play the best teams close thanks to their signature “packline” defense, but they will always have a hard time pulling away from lesser opponents because they quite simply can’t score a lot of points. Mike Scott attempted just two shots in the second half on Sunday, which is a textbook recipe for a loss.

If Florida State can continue to ride the wave of momentum it’s generated over the last week, they are a serious threat to Virginia for the third spot in the league. The Cavaliers are still in fine shape for an NCAA Tournament berth — for now. A mid-season swoon could put the ‘Hoos in a much more compelling position to win games down the stretch to remain on the good side of the bubble.

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Some quick thoughts around the rest of the league…

If Quinn Cook could stay healthy, Duke might be able to make a decent run in March. Just as Cook was coming into his own as the Blue Devils’ starting point guard, a knee bruise curtailed his production, and eventually his playing time. He played just one minute in the Florida State loss Saturday, and it’s unsure when he’ll be 100% again. Mike Krzyzewski hoped it would be this week, but he said so with little conviction. Duke needs a true point guard to set up shooters like Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins — not to mention to keep Austin Rivers out of a decision-making role as much as possible. Cook was that guy, but durability has been a persistent issue there. Duke is a prime candidate to be upset in March if Cook isn’t healthy and playing consistently.

Miami is off to a 1-3 start in ACC play that is a bit deceiving. The Hurricanes were narrowly clipped on the road at Virginia before falling to UNC in Chapel Hill. Their next three games are at Georgia Tech, Boston College then home against Maryland. Piecing together a three-game win streak is certainly possible, and a likely necessity for Miami to keep its at-large hopes alive for the dance. For the second straight year, I really like the pieces Miami has in place. I’m not ready to bail on this team just yet, but tonight’s game at Georgia Tech is a must-win for old Jimmy Larranaga.

Check back tomorrow for a new set of power rankings, which will include UNC, Duke, Florida State and Virginia in some order at the top, and the rest will be decided by throwing names in a hat and pulling at random.

No, but really.

For the Cavaliers, Cameron was no ordinary basketball court. It was a proving ground. They passed the test.

Mike Scott and Jontel Evans both had clean looks at three’s in the final moments, but neither could come up with a bucket to send the game to overtime. By losing so narrowly in the single most venomous road environment in the ACC, if not the country, Virginia proved it’s not like most of the conference. In a league full of mediocre to average-at-best teams, Virginia is a cut above that group. North Carolina and Duke have been the only locks to make the NCAA Tournament. It’s time to add the Cavaliers to that group.

Virginia’s defense was suffocating, as always. Duke shot just 25 percent from the three-point line, it’s second lowest mark of the season (the lowest in a win). The Cavaliers held Duke to 20 points below its season average. With the exception of a patented Blue Devils’ run to open the second half, the game was played at Virginia’s pace.

As vital as Virginia’s defense was, it would have meant nothing without Scott. If he wasn’t the front-runner for ACC Player of the Year before Thursday night, he is now. He scored 16 of Virginia’s 32 first-half points as the Cavaliers took a four-point lead into halftime, and finished with 23 points and nine rebounds. Containing him was improbable; stopping him was impossible. He controlled the paint against a deep and talented Duke front line. He showed his range with a three-pointer at the end of the first half. He’s by no means a lock to take home the honors as the league’s best player, but he’s certainly emerged as the mid-season favorite.

This was an extremely important win for the Blue Devils, who were reeling after two subpar performances. A loss at Temple and a narrow escape at Georgia Tech exposed any lingering weaknesses of the Blue Devils. Namely, their inability to contain athletic guards. On paper, Virginia doesn’t have the personnel that is Duke’s kryptonite. No dominant guards that can penetrate, an offense that wants to slow the pace down to a near-halt and revolves around a post player.

The Blue Devils had their hands full anyway. It was just the second time in 16 years that they shot worse than 50 percent from the foul line at home. They shot 8-of-19, which was significantly aided by Mason Plumlee’s 2-for-10 performance. His difficulties at the foul line are going to haunt the Blue Devils at some point.

Even in a game that wasn’t their best effort, the Blue Devils needed a win over a quality opponent like Virginia to break out of their rut. They aren’t the type of team that’s going to blow opponents away nearly at will like North Carolina, anything less than 12 wins in ACC play would be a massive disappointment.

For one night, it was like old times again. The ACC took center stage in the college basketball universe for a game other than UNC against Duke. The battle lived up to, and even exceeded the hype. There won’t be any more nights like this one for some time to come. It was nice to enjoy it while it lasted.

LINKS

Former Virginia player James Johnson has decided to transfer to San Diego State. Johnson attended high school in the area as a junior and senior.

Boston College pulled off a mild upset Thursday, beating Clemson 59-57. BC Interruption recaps the win.

Is it time for Florida State to fire Leonard Hamilton? Eric Todoroff of the Tallahassee Democrat thinks it is. I couldn’t disagree more.

TWEET OF THE DAY(From BC Hysteria)

Suddenly, the outlook in Atlanta is not quite so bleak. The Yellow Jackets went into the RBC Center Wednesday night and snapped NC State’s six-game win streak, and they did so convincingly. They ended the first half on a 19-3 run to take an 11-point lead into the locker room, and brushed aside a trying Wolfpack comeback attempt.

In Saturday’s game against the Blue Devils, the 12-point home underdogs gave third-ranked Duke a much sterner test than expected, falling 81-74.

So, how does a team that seemed destined for the doldrums of the conference standings suddenly become competitive?

In their first 14 games, the Yellow Jackets shot a putrid 29 percent from three-point range. On average, they attempted 15.6 three’s while making just 4.6 of them. Against Duke and NC State, a reversal of fortunes has taken place in emphatic fashion. They shot 6-of-13 (46.2 percent) against the Blue Devils and an incredible 9-of-15 (60 percent) against the Wolfpack.

Collectively, the Yellow Jackets have taken few three’s than usual in their last two games which astronomically better results. Much of the turnaround this week will be attributed to Glen Rice, Jr., and rightfully so. The junior forward whose DNA requires he have a sweet stroke and unlimited range has scored 50 points in the last two games. Prior to the Duke game, Rice had made multiple three’s just once in a game since November 23. He’s made 7-of-12 treys in the last two contests.

The law of averages along with only a few minutes of film study from any of Tech’s first 14 games is enough evidence to say the Jackets won’t continue to look quite as strong over the final 14 games. They certainly won’t shoot 60 percent from beyond the arc many more times, if ever again. But Brian Gregory did pick up his first conference win at Tech and it came on the road, which is all the more impressive. Home teams are 7-3 in ACC match-ups so far.

Gregory likes the direction his team is headed, but what Wednesday night’s game proved more than anything was the simple re-affirmation of the fact that after North Carolina, and realistically Duke, spots 3 through 12 are entirely up for grabs in the ACC.

LINKS

Duke hosts Virginia tonight in a pivotal contest not only for the conference standings, but as a chance for the Cavaliers to pick up the unequivocally biggest win in Tony Bennett’s three-year tenure. Here’s a good preview between opposing bloggers at Streaking the Lawn. Duke Hoop Blog offers up its scouting report of the Wahoos, and also looks at the match-up by the numbers.

As some of you know, and many of you don’t, my work also appears at HoopSpeakU, part of ESPN’s TrueHoop Blog Network. There are plenty of contributors to the site who do spectacular work, and James Liu is no exception. His latest blog compares Duke freshman Austin Rivers to Utah Jazz point guard Devin Harris.

An 11-3 start had things looking up in Blacksburg, but after two straight losses to open conference play, the Hokies are reeling. Tech Hoop Blog looks at what’s gone wrong and how to fix it.

For those of you who have not heard of JP Tokoto, you will soon enough. How about right now? He’s part of North Carolina’s highly touted recruiting class for next season, and Roy Williams has already made some loose comparisons of Tokoto to former Tar Heel Vince Carter. Tokoto and Aquille Carr were some of the stars at last weekend’s Brandon Jennings Invitational in Milwaukee. Carr is an explosive but diminutive guard who recently committed to Seton Hall. Here’s some of their highlights from the weekend:

TWEET TO REMEMBER

Tech finished the season 11-18 overall, 4-12 in the Big East; both records were good enough for the worst in the conference. It marked the third straight season since joining the league that the Hokies failed to make it to Madison Square Garden for the conference tournament.

In those three seasons, the Hokies were 9-38 against conference opponents. The women’s team drew larger home crowds. It wasn’t even close.

Then Greenberg arrived as a fairly unrecognizable name from South Florida. He led the Bulls to five winning records in seven seasons, including two NIT appearances. Nothing earth-shattering, but he was a respectable hire for a Tech program in shambles.

In his first season, the Hokies finished 15-14, 7-9 in the Big East – picking up nearly as many conference wins as the last three years combined. As the conference’s eighth seed, the Hokies faced Rutgers in an opening-round game at the Garden, which they won 61-58. Never mind that they lost to top-seeded Pittsburgh the following afternoon. The progress was remarkable.

As we arrive back in 2012, Greenberg is in his ninth season at the helm of a Hokies’ club that is 11-4, 0-1 in the ACC. Since joining the ACC in Greenberg’s second season, the Hokies have posted a .508 winning percentage in conference play (entering 2011). That’s the sixth best mark in the league in that time span, ahead of more traditionally basketball programs like Wake Forest, NC State and Virginia.

For the first six years of his tenure, Greenberg was playing with an extremely short stack when it came to facilities. In August 2009, Tech unveiled a new $21 million practice facility specifically for basketball. Up until then, the Hokies practiced in a cramped back gym inside Cassell Coliseum with no air conditioning. Blacksburg Middle School had nicer practice gyms than Tech.

Since the facility opened, the program’s recruiting has noticeably improved. The current freshman class was widely regarded as one of the 20 best in the country. It was easily the best haul of prospects ever to come to Tech. Next year’s class already includes four-star forward Montrezl Harrell, who committed the Hokies just as Duke was turning up the heat on its recruitment of him.

This marks the fifth season since the Hokies last reached the NCAA Tournament in 2007. Before then, Tech had made the dance once in 20 years. The Hokies have made the postseason six times in the last eight years. Before Greenberg, you would have to go back 20 years to include an equal amount of berths.

Greenberg didn’t raise the standard at Tech – he created one.

Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon led a renaissance of the Virginia Tech program under Greenberg's guidance

It’s a standard that he now has to inevitably live up to. But what’s happened in Blacksburg among the Hokies’ fan base is shocking. Each of the last four years, the Hokies were dangerously close to earning an NCAA Tournament bid. In fact, in several of those years (including 2011), there were outcries among the experts at their exclusion.

Far too many Tech fans have naively confused the gut-wrenching feeling of having their bubble burst year after year with thinking that being snubbed is a failure to live up to expectations.

On Saturday, the Hokies opened conference play with a disappointing loss at Wake Forest. Several pundits already believe it’s going to be another year on the bubble for Greenberg’s incredibly young team. Some even say that an NCAA snub would have him on the “hot seat.” That’s absurd.

The Hokies were picked to finish seventh in the conference this season. With six players in the rotation with either little or no experience playing college basketball, this was supposed to be a rebuilding year in Blacksburg. Yet it’s January, and Hokies still look like a borderline NCAA Tournament team. Does that really justify the “hot seat” these days?

Remember the Hokies’ upset of No. 1 Duke last February in Blacksburg? It would have been a landmark victory for the program if the Hokies hadn’t already beaten Duke twice already under Greenberg (would have been three if not for Sean Dockery).

It can be argued that nights like the one last season would not have been possible if not for nights like February 17, 2005. That’s when a no-name Tech program knocked off a JJ Redick-led Duke squad in front of the loudest Cassell Colisuem crowd ever. It was only possible through Greenberg.

Evaluating his job status should only go back to 2010 – in other words, after his first recruiting class with competitive facilities. Everything he accomplished prior to that was a near miracle.

If we jump back in my time machine and travel to 2014 and the Hokies are still trying to break their NCAA Tournament drought, only then can we even discuss the hot seat.

They may not know it, but the Hokies’ current freshmen have a lot of pressure on their shoulders. They are the first large recruiting class since the facility upgrade. If this group can’t get the job done in the next three or four years, then it may spell the end of the line for Greenberg. Making the NIT only became the standard for Tech basketball about two years ago.

As of now, the annual expectation of this program should be to make the NIT at bare minimum. Two NCAA appearances every four years should be commended, but not demanded, from this point forward.

If the Hokies’ fan base can’t handle watching their team fall short of the NCAA Tournament most years, I hear there’s some room on the bandwagon in Lexington.

Coming out of a Miami timeout with 2:47 seconds left, Virginia had scored five straight points to take a 50-46 lead. The Hurricanes swung the ball across the perimeter to Durand Scott on the left wing. Evans failed to intercept the pass, giving Scott a clear path to the lane, where Assane Sene stepped over to the block and could only stop Scott from scoring by fouling him.

Scott made both free throws, but Mike Scott answered moments later with a shot off the glass to extend Virginia’s lead back to four. Once again, Miami put the ball in Scott’s hands, where he converted a three-point play to draw the ‘Canes within one. Joe Harris had a chance to extend the lead at the foul line for Virginia, but the normally reliable foul shooter missed the front end of a one-and-one. Suddenly, a game the Cavaliers had virtually controlled from start to finish was now in serious jeopardy of slipping away from them, leading only 52-51.

Then again, Virginia isn’t the second-best defensive team in America by happenstance. On a similar play to the one coming out of the earlier Miami timeout, Durand Scott caught the ball in the exact same spot on the left wing, only this time Evans didn’t jump the pass. Instead, he was several feet off of Scott as he caught the ball and did not allow him to beat him to the baseline. Scott’s fadeaway from the corner was heavily contested and never had a chance. Virginia survived.

This was only the first game of the conference season for both teams, but if the weekend was any indication, they both had better prepare for plenty more like it. The Cavaliers’ defense is good enough to keep them in any game. No matter how poorly they shoot the ball, if they continue to hold opponents under 60 points, they’ll have a chance.

That’s not to say there isn’t plenty of work to be done. As has been the case all season, Virginia’s only consistent offensive threat is Mike Scott. If the ball doesn’t go through his hands on every possession, something has gone wrong. Miami had very little answer for him, whether it was on the block, on the wing or at the high post. He was too quick for Miami’s post defenders. Scott either scored or was fouled nearly every time. If the defense collapsed on him, he was usually able to hit the open man on the perimeter for an open look.

It was the inability of Scott’s teammates to knock down those open looks that made it tough on Virginia. The ‘Hoos were just 4-of-13 from three-point range, well below their 36 percent season average (which isn’t great to begin with). Scott scored 23 of Virginia’s 52 points. That will allow Virginia to scrape by against the Miamis of the world, but if the Cavaliers have dreams of a Sweet 16 or better, they must get better production out of guards Joe Harris, Sammy Zeglinski and Evans.

Miami has one of the toughest backcourts in the country, let alone the ACC. The athletic duo of Scott and Malcolm Grant made it difficult for the Cavaliers to penetrate. There aren’t going to be many nights as difficult as Sunday for Virginia’s guards, but once the calendar turns the March, that’s what the level of competition will be every game.

Jim Larranaga quickly learned that going on the road in the ACC is a different beast than it was in the CAA. If Miami had stolen a win on the red-hot Cavaliers’ home floor, it would have been a tremendous feat. Instead, the Hurricanes stood toe to toe with Virginia but didn’t have quite enough to claim the win. They are a much better team now that Reggie Johnson has returned to the lineup, but it’s clear he is not in top shape. Once he’s back to his old self — I give it another week or two — Miami will be a legitimate threat to make the NCAA Tournament.

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Give all the credit in the world to Demon Deacons’ coach Jeff Bzdelik. After winning only one ACC game in 16 tries last season, Wake Forest is now 1-0 in conference play after taking down the Hokies at home 59-55.

The Deacons almost exclusively used a 2-3 zone to shut down Tech’s offensive attack. The Hokies shot 6-of-22 from three-point range. They refused to feed the ball into the teeth of the zone, and it cost them badly. They perpetually ignored the high post and it wasn’t until the middle of the second half before they started attacking the gaps on the perimeter with the dribble. Perhaps things would have turned out in Hokies’ favor if Jarell Eddie wasn’t saddled with foul trouble. He played just 18 minutes, but was easily Tech’s most dangerous weapon, finishing with 12 points on 4-of-6 shooting from beyond the arc.

Conversely, Wake Forest shot very well from deep. The Deacons made 8-of-18 three-pointers, including the gutsy game-winner from C.J. Harris. Every time the Hokies closed the gap in the second half, somebody for Wake Forest stepped up with a huge shot. That resiliency was non-existent on the 2010-11 version of the Demon Deacons’ squad. It was a balanced attack for Bzdelik’s team. He played just eight players, but seven of them scored at least four points, while none scored more than 13.

This was a tremendous win for Wake Forest. The Deacons are a team eager to exact revenge on a league that turned them into a perennial doormat last season. With players like Harris and Travis McKie (2nd and 3rd in the ACC in scoring, respectively), there is enough talent on the roster to win at least six games in a league that’s much weaker than usual.

For the Hokies, this is an all too familiar feeling. With 0 wins against the RPI’s top 50 and now this disappointing loss to start league play, there will be plenty of bubble talk in Blacksburg in the next two months. Seth Greenberg’s team cannot afford to lose games against the bottom half of the ACC if it wants to snap a four-year NCAA Tournament drought.

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In other ACC action, Duke looked sluggish for the second straight game in a hard-fought 81-74 win at Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils are a completely different team on the road. In three trips to opponents’ home cities this season, they are 1-2. Quinn Cook is slowly emerging as an effective point guard, but for now Duke is a very tough team to assess. It has as much talent as any team in the country, but they seriously lack an identity. Austin Rivers is a natural scorer, but give him too much freedom and he creates more problems than he does scoring chances.

Duke hosts Virginia on Thursday in a critical game for both teams. The Blue Devils are reeling following the loss to Temple and lackluster showing in Atlanta. Virginia is in the midst of its longest winning streak in three decades. Thankfully for the Blue Devils, the game is in Durham, but that won’t solve all of their woes. If there’s one game to watch this week in the ACC, this is it.

It would be very easy to forget about Glen Rice Jr.’s heroic effort in the loss. Rice scored 28 points, including seven straight in the final minute to give the Yellow Jackets a chance. Georgia Tech won’t win many games in conference play this season, but if Rice takes control of the team like he did late on Saturday, he at least gives us a reason to watch his games.

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I don’t know where to begin with Florida State. The Seminoles fell behind 32-10 at Clemson Saturday night en route to a 79-59 loss. There’s just no offense anywhere on this team. The return of Ian Miller last month was supposed to help such woes, but it hasn’t. Miller was the ‘Noles leading scored on Saturday with 16 points, but the team still shot just 35 percent from the field. That brings their season average to 44.7, 8th in the ACC. They’ve yet to adjust to losing Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen.

Don’t forget, though, that last year the Seminoles hit a slump eerily similar to this one in early January. They lost consecutive games to lowly Auburn and Virginia Tech on the road to fall to 11-5. Next time out, all they did was knock off top-ranked Duke to kick off a 10-game stretch in which they won eight games. Next up for Florida State this week is a trip to Blacksburg before North Carolina visits Tallahassee. A similar opportunity has presented itself for the second straight year. Can the ‘Noles capitalize?

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The final two games included  North Carolina’s 83-60 win over Boston College, and NC State’s 79-74 defeat of Maryland, both at home. I’m not sure who was more interested in the Tar Heels’ game, Queen Elizabeth II or the Heels themselves. After building a 21-point second half lead, Carolina essentially quit and allowed Boston College to creep within nine points. The Heels quickly re-asserted themselves for a short burst and the Eagles never had a chance.

NC State can thank a strong night at the foul line for its close win. The Wolfpack made 21-of-24 free throws in the five-point victory. Terrell Stoglin scored 25 points for Maryland. It’s very likely he’s going to run away with the ACC scoring title. Freshman Alex Len is improving rapidly at center for Maryland, which is going to give the guard-oriented Terps a huge boost down the stretch. For NC State, surely it would have liked to win more comfortably against a bottom-tier squad, but Mark Gottfried will quickly learn that any win in the ACC can’t be taken for granted.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

I’ve tried like heck to keep from adding to the infestation of Barnes talk in the blogosphere, but the next post on here will do just that. He scored 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting with five rebounds and four steals against Boston College. In his last four games, he’s averaging 21.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2 steals, 1.8 assists while shooting 60 percent from both the field and three-point range. Don’t look now, but he just might be heating up in mid-January just like last year. Only this year, he’s that much better.

ROOKIE OF THE WEEK: Alex Len, Maryland

After sitting out the first 10 games of the season with eligibility issues, the Ukraninan implant has made a strong impact on the Terps already. Just in the past two games, he’s scored a combined 27 points with 20 rebounds. He’s got the makings of a NBA center, but Terps’ coach Mark Turgeon hopes that Len sticks around College Park for at least another year or two. It’s hard to tell what the right call will be for Len, but we’ll have a lot better idea as he moves through the second half of this season.

Why is a league that once prided itself on being basketball royalty suddenly on the brink of battling the CAA and Atlantic 10 for NCAA Tournament bids? Coaching turnover for one. Virginia’s Tony Bennett is the fifth-longest tenured coach in the ACC — in just his third year. The mass exodus of head coaches following the past two seasons has placed several former prominent programs such as Maryland, Georgia Tech, NC State and Wake Forest in rebuilding mode.

Times are hard, even at the top. Duke hit the road on Wednesday to face Temple, and the Owls led virtually the entire game in a 78-73 upset. North Carolina is 13-2, but is just 2-2 against the RPI top 50. While nobody doubts the Tar Heels’ talent, there hasn’t been a true marquee win by anyone in the ACC this season.

If you’ve watched any of ESPN’s broadcasts of ACC games this year, you’ve noticed they typically include whichever analyst’s breakdown of the league into three “tiers.” I don’t think I’ve seen one that I’ve agreed with yet. So, as a primer for ACC play, I’ll give my own groupings that hopefully make sense to all. Following my tier rankings, I project every team’s conference record, so make sure to check that out as well.

(League power ranking in parentheses)

Tier 1: NCAA Tournament Locks

(1) North Carolina, (2) Duke

Surprise, surprise. The Tar Heels and Blue Devils are on a crash course to meet in the ACC Championship Game yet again. The biggest point of separation between these two and the rest of the league is frontcourt play.

For North Carolina, no team in America boasts an interior as long and athletic as John Henson and Tyler Zeller. Opponents take the ball into the paint at their own risk against the Heels. North Carolina has defended 376 three-pointers this season, the third highest total in the country. Nobody takes it inside against the Tar Heels. John Henson leads the ACC with 3.2 blocks per game.

Duke’s front line of Mason and Miles Plumlee, along with Ryan Kelly, is a formidable group in its own right. The Plumlees have been inconsistent at times, but have played well of late. They combined for 33 points and 17 rebounds in Duke’s loss to Temple.

Both UNC and Duke should sleep their way through eight or nine games in ACC play. They’ll need to barely rise from their slumber in another three or four. They’ll get everyone’s best shot as always, but the bottom third of the league is so miserable that it won’t be much of a challenge for either team.

NCAA Tournament Hopefuls

(3) Virginia, (4) Virginia Tech, (5) NC State, (6) Miami, (7) Florida State

The Cavaliers are off to their best start in recent memory and are in the driver’s seat for the ACC’s third NCAA bid. Even the ‘Hoos success hasn’t come without turmoil, though. Once-prized recruit KT Harrell transferred in mid-December, as did the seldom used James Johnson. Among their last four games, the Cavaliers squeaked by winless Towson and lowly Seattle to prove their vulnerability. They are the still best defensive team in the league, allowing only 50.4 points per game (second nationally).

Virginia Tech seems destined for a fifth straight season on the bubble. The Hokies have failed to win any of its games against RPI-top 50 opponents, which will undoubtedly hurt them come Selection Sunday. Erick Green has been steady at point guard, but it’s an influx of youth is what has kept Virginia Tech afloat in the aftermath of Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen’s departure. Highly Dorian Finney-Smithh has struggled offensively but leads the team with 8.2 rebounds per game. Robert Brown has been a lightning rod on the wing, mainly because of his outside shooting and highly active defense. Marquis Rankin has been a solid backup for Green, while CJ Barksdale provides quality depth in the post that Tech has not been accustomed to in a long time.

NC State has shown flashes of promise in the early season under first-year coach Mark Gottfried. The Wolfpack have five players averaging double-figure points, but a lack of depth will test this team through the grind of the conference schedule. C.J. Leslie is enjoying a strong sophomore season after a disappointing rookie campaign. He’s scoring 13 points and hauling in more than six rebounds per game. The ‘Pack only played one true road game through their 11-4 start, so they may struggle in some of the tougher ACC road environments in the early going.

Nobody is paying attention to Miami, but the Hurricanes are finally at full strength and are a dynamic club that matches up better with Duke and North Carolina than anyone else in the league. DeQuan Jones regained his eligibility mid-season in the wake of the Nevin Shapiro schedule, and seems caught up to speed in new coach Jim Larranaga’s system. Dominant big man Reggie Johnson returned from an off-season knee injury, and the ‘Canes have averaged 88 points during their four-game win streak since his return. Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant form one of the toughest backcourts in the country, giving Miami a balanced offensive attack.

In a season drenched in disappointment, Florida State is the league’s posterchild of it all. Fresh off a Sweet 16 appearance last March, the Seminoles had high hopes for a similarly strong season. Instead, the Seminoles might want to put out an APB for any semblance of offensive prowess. They are 10th in the ACC in offensive efficiency, 11th in three-point shooting and fifth in scoring. That’s not going to get it done against Carolina and Duke, which is who Florida State compared itself to in the preseason. Leonard Hamilton has been around the block a time or two, though, and my bet is Florida State will finish the season stronger than it started it.

Tier 3: NCAA Longshots

(8) Wake Forest, (9) Maryland, (10) Clemson

After last season’s debacle, the Demon Deacons have already won more games than they did all of last season. Travis McKie is one of the best players America’s never heard of. He’s averaging a shade under 18 points and six rebounds per game. C.J. Harris has also been a focal point of the Deacs’ mild resurgence with 19 points per game on 54 percent shooting. Depth is a major issue here, as Jeff Bzdelik was left with a mangled roster last year following Dino Gaudio’s surprising ouster. Can Wake Forest make the dance? Probably not, but I like the pieces on this team and they are hungry to erase the memory of of 2010-11 from everyone’s minds.

Don’t let Maryland’s seven-game win streak fool you. The average RPI of the Terps’ foes in that stretch is 212. Their average margin of victory during the streak was a mere 7.14, and that includes an 11-point overtime win against Albany at home. Terrell Stoglin has been terrific thus far and he leads the ACC with 21.1 points per game. Sean Mosley is second on the team with 10.2 points per game, as he hits the home stretch of what has been a disappointing career. Part of me wants to call off the dogs on Maryland, but a 10-win ACC season — albeit a miraculous one — is not entirely impossible. There are too many question marks on the teams ahead of them on this list to give the Terps no shot.

I have no rational explanation for why Clemson is so bad. I thought this team would take a step forward in Brad Brownell’s second season, but their inability to score and extended lapses of focus on the defensive end make me wonder if Brownell has completely lost this team. There’s more than enough talent to contend for an NCAA bid, but it’s not showing on the court this season. The best thing Clemson fans can hope for is the Tigers treat the ACC slate as an entirely new season and finally live up to their potential. A win at home on Saturday against Florida State is almost a must at this point.

Tier 4: No chance

(11) Georgia Tech, (12) Boston College

The odds these two clubs combine for more than five ACC wins is roughly equivalent to the chances either one of these teams offers me a scholarship. Boston College is downright pathetic. The Eagles have lost to Holy Cross, UMass, St. Louis, Penn State, Boston, Harvard (for the fourth straight year, but not a bad loss this time around for once), and Rhode Island. They are 262nd in the RPI, which is about three times as high as the typical ACC cellar-dwellers reside. It’s an extremely young collection of players that will take a beating against virtually every other team in the league.

Except for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets enter league play on a three-game losing streak, which consisted of defeats to Mercer, Fordham and a 25-point blowout to Alabama. Their leading scorer, Glen Rice, Jr. averages only 12 points per game. They are 11th in the league in offensive efficiency despite facing an extremely weak out-of-conference schedule. New coach Brian Gregory also has a whale of a job in front of him to clean up the mess that Paul Hewitt left behind. Gregory will be much more meticulous in his job building the program than Hewitt ever was. Thenear future is extremely dim for Tech, but if the fan base can be patient, there is a light at the end of this long tunnel.

PROJECTED RECORDS

1. North Carolina 14-2*

2. Duke 13-3*

3. Virginia 11-5*

T-4. Miami 10-6*

T-4. Virginia Tech 10-6^

T-6. NC State 9-7^

T-6. Florida State 9-7^

8. Wake Forest 6-10

T-8. Clemson 6-10

10. Maryland 5-11

11. Georgia Tech 2-14

12. Boston College 1-15

*NCAA at-large

^Will need strong ACC Tournament showing for at-large bid

Clemson was supposed to complete its best season in three decades with a win over West Virginia in the Orange Bowl. Instead, the Tigers let the Mountaineers score more points than any team in the history of bowl games. It will ultimately go down as one of the most embarrassing performances in school history, if it hasn’t already taken the cake. The worst part is, somehow I’m only half-surprised.

Perhaps no team in college football has been more inconsistent from one part of the season to another over the last decade than Clemson. In 2007, they started 4-0, and finished 9-4. In 2006, a 7-1 start fizzled into an 8-5 final record. In 2004, they stumbled to a 1-4 start before winning five of their final six games to finish 6-5. This season, a memorable 8-0 start brought national title aspirations along with it. A 2-4 finish, culminating in the debacle in Miami Wednesday night.

As predictable as the Tigers’ no-show was, nobody could have imagined it being that horrific. In the Mountaineers’ 49-point outburst in the first half, they averaged 7.4 yards per play. What was the biggest shock of all? West Virginia punted twice in that half.

West Virginia receiver Tavon Austin was the star of the night. He scored four touchdowns along with 280 all-purpose yards. He embarrassed the Tigers in every way short of walking over and spitting in Dabo Swinney’s face.

The last time we saw Clemson, they were polishing off a thorough beatdown of their own at the expense of Virginia Tech. Despite entering the game losers in three of their last four, the Tigers reverted back to their early-season dominance against the Hokies, and it looked liked they had straightened everything out. Um…guess not.

This is an extremely bitter pill to swallow for the ACC. Once again, the frontrunners of the league failed to come through under the brightest lights. A night after the Hokies gift-wrapped the Sugar Bowl for Michigan, Clemson choked so hard it coughed up both lungs. That makes the league 2-13 all-time in BCS bowl games. For comparison’s sake, West Virginia has won three BCS bowls on its own.

This is the type of performance that has historically cost defensive coordinators their job. Kevin Steele is going to face the fire in the wake of this embarrassment. Even throughout Clemson’s explosive start this season, the defense was always a liability. It wasn’t for lack of talent, either. With the likes of Andre Branch, Corico Hawkins and others, the Tigers had one of the most athletic defenses in the ACC. That didn’t stop them from allowing 29.3 points per game, 10th most in the league ahead of only Duke and Maryland. Most of the defensive lapses were masked by the prolific offensive displays that took place week after week under the direction of Chad Morris.

The hiring of Morris was a brilliant one, and it quite likely saved Swinney his job. Morris brought his spread offensive attack from Tulsa and turned untested sophomore Tajh Boyd into a first-team all-conference quarterback. Morris’ schemes fit perfectly with the Clemson’s personnel, which included speedsters Andre Ellington, DeAndre Hopkins and super-freshman Sammy Watkins. When healthy, the Tigers’ offense was a scoring factory.

Fans saw the benefits of shaking up the staff on one side of the ball this season. That will only make it harder on Swinney to keep Steele and the rest of the defensive staff around. The obvious breaking point will have been the Orange Bowl, but dig a little deeper and it’s clear that Steele’s unit underachieved all season.

Clemson is on the verge of becoming a great program again, but there are some gaping holes that must be covered before the Tigers can get there. It’s a shame it took getting their face spit on in front of a national audience for them to realize it.

Michigan’s 23-20 overtime win was the type of game that could send all parties involved in a coma. It wasn’t the prettiest game to watch, but the dramatics were enough to coerce TNT to ask for re-broadcasting rights.

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How Michigan won:

By capitalizing on Virginia Tech’s mistakes. Every Michigan score in regulation came off either a turnover or a drive kept alive by a Tech penalty. The Wolverines struggled to move the ball all night long, being held to 184 yards of total offense. It was their lowest total output since a 2007 loss to Ohio State. Junior Hemingway, who took home the game’s MVP honors, made a fabulous touchdown grab late in the second quarter that was arguably the only memorable offensive play of the game for Michigan.

How Virginia Tech lost:

Poorly timed penalties, questionable play-calling, and just tough luck doomed the Hokies. Michigan faked a field goal at the end of the first half and though it seemed destined for failure, the holder’s wild throw was batted up into the air and caught by a lineman. That gave Michigan a first down, and it resulted in an actual field goal to put the Wolverines ahead 10-6 at halftime.

Midway through the fourth quarter, the Hokies inexplicably faked a punt in Michigan territory and it failed miserably. Danny Coale was brought down on Tech’s side of the field on the botched attempt. All Michigan needed was one first down and it was in field goal range. If the Hokies really wanted to go for it on 4th and 1, common logic would have called for a quarterback sneak from Logan Thomas. Which leads me to…

Don’t point fingers at:

Thomas or Danny Coale. There was a definitive learning curve this season for the redshirt sophomore quarterback, but tonight he was sensational. He was 19-of-28 passing for 214 yards with one interception. He engineered a brilliant drive in the final four minutes to set up Justin Myer’s game-tying field goal at the end of regulation. For the second time this season (Miami on Oct. 15), Thomas was clutch when his team needed it most. Coale hauled in eight passes for 117 yards, and it looked like he made a ninth grab that would have given the Hokies a touchdown advantage in overtime.

Coale’s one-handed, diving grab on the sideline was the best non-catch you’ll ever see, and it’s sure to be argued about for some time among the Tech faithful as to whether or not it should have been ruled complete. Personally, I thought there was not conclusive evidence to overturn the ruling on the field, but what the hell do I know? Coale was brilliant. Losing him to graduation can not be emphasized enough.

A big pat on the back should go to Bud Foster and the Tech defense. This unit battled through injuries all season long yet held it together week in, week out. Tuesday night, they suffocated Michigan’s offense — specifically, Denard Robinson. He ran for 13 yards on 13 carries, an all time low for “Shoelace”.

Point fingers at:

I hate, hate, hate when people do this, but the coaching staff. This was a miserably managed game at times. Frank Beamer said following the game that he gave Coale the option of either kicking the ball or running for the first down. Why on earth you let a guy who’s punted in three games ever (or any punter for that reason, but even more so here) have that much liberty is inexplicable.

Also, after slicing Michigan’s secondary apart all night, the Hokies called two running plays straight up the middle to start overtime, setting up the aforementioned pass to Coale. Thomas was the best player on the field in this game, but he clearly has not earned the complete trust of his coaches yet. It’s that ultra-conservative philosophy that has drawn so much criticism over the years, and it’s only going to intensify in the wake of this loss.

What it means for Tech going forward:

There is an absolute ZERO percent chance that the Tech boosters, no matter how enraged they may be (which I’ve already heard is extreme in some cases), will force Beamer out the door. Is it tough to go through loss after loss on the biggest stage? Absolutely, but Beamer built this program from scratch and he’ll leave on his own terms as long as Tech continues to contend in the ACC.

That said, I can envision a world in which Beamer faces so much pressure to shake up his offensive staff that it just might happen. There isn’t a coach in America who’s more loyal to his assistants than Beamer, but that glass ceiling hovering over this program isn’t budging. Whenever the Hokies lose…er…play in big games like this one, the blame is ultimately centered around the offense. Sometimes it’s play-calling, other times it’s execution, and also sometimes it’s a lack focus.

I know Bryan Stinespring and Mike O’Cain very well. They are both incredibly great people. That’s what makes this harder than anything, but if the Hokies are to move into the elite class of college football teams, changes have to come somewhere. I think O’Cain should stay on — the work he’s done with Thomas and Tyrod Taylor before that was remarkable. Stinespring has worn out his welcome in Blacksburg, though, as has offensive line coach Curt Newsome. Stinespring receives the lion’s share of the blame most nights, but Newsome has done a horrid job in his time at Tech at developing his unit.

Wholesale changes would be the wrong way to go. There is something good going in Blacksburg, but a minor shake-up would be in the best interests of everyone.  The Hokies have officially become the Chokies until further notice.

Frank Beamer is staying put exactly where he is right now. That doesn’t mean the window between the end of his career and the inevitable Shane Beamer Era didn’t become more narrow Tuesday night. Frank Beamer loves Virginia Tech more than anything, and if he senses that it’s time to make a change at the top, he’ll do so gracefully.

I’ll talk in much greater detail about next season in the coming days, but with the pieces that are in place for the 2012 season, the Hokies will be a prohibitive favorite to reach the ACC Championship Game yet again. Miami is in disarray, Virginia showed it isn’t ready to compete with the Hokies yet, and that game is in Blacksburg next season. Georgia Tech is on the decline. It will be the Hokies and Clemson or Florida State in Charlotte next season. Mark it down now. Even without Jayron Hosley, who announced he’s turning pro after the game, the Hokies’ defense will be lights out. Losing Hosley honestly won’t matter very much at the end of the day. He’s an overrated player who won’t be drafted nearly as highly as he expects.

David Wilson is, according to people who know people, also out the door. Tony Gregory was never the answer at running back next season, and he tore his ACL Tuesday night for the second time in two years. The battle at running back will be between redshirt freshman Michael Holmes and true freshmen J.C. Coleman and Drew Harris. Despite the lack of experience in the backfield, the Hokies will manage just fine.

The Hokies host Florida State and travel to Clemson next year. If they lose both games and still reach the ACC Championship Game, it would be a must-win for Beamer. I can’t imagine the venom that Tech supporters would be gushing under such circumstances. Another year of heart-crushing losses against the best teams on the schedule, and it could get…well…I just don’t want to even imagine it. As wonderful as he’s been for the school, the program and the community, it will be time for Beamer to look at himself in the mirror and evaluate if he still belongs in charge.

We haven’t reached the tipping point yet in Blacksburg, but the pressure is mounting fast. Free passes are no more.

I am a huge fan of Gasaway; his work is tremendous and a must-read for basketball fans everywhere, but his analysis of the impact a coach has on his team during games is misguided and written through a scope so narrow Mary-Kate and Ashley couldn’t squeeze through it.

Gasaway begins his post with an “epiphany” that coaching is harder than you think. He draws this conclusion based on his experience coaching children in, presumably, recreation or AAU basketball (pre-high school).

“Wow, this is hard. Those players aren’t doing what I told them to do!” he proclaims.

The challenge to retain your players’ attention is a difficult one, and it’s something that coaches face at every level of the game (though the reasons for this change drastically, from limited attention spans to adolescent arrogance to contract-induced selfishness). I know a little bit about this. I’ve spent several years coaching  at both the youth league and high school level, despite being only 21.

Gasaway uses this logic to praise coaches like Frank Haith and Bo Ryan, both of whom are having great seasons and have never reached a Final Four. Fair enough.

That theory, in and of itself, is perfectly rational. 100 percent of basketball fans have, at one time or another, thought they could have coached his or her team better than the man or woman whose job it is to do so. It’s only once those fans are handed a clipboard and a rag-tag collection of 10 or so players that they begin to appreciate the nuances of the job.

The second half of the post is where I completely and fundamentally disagree with Gasaway.

“The admiration due individual coaches, however, is a separate and discrete question relative to an equally interesting matter: what are college basketball coaches for?” he asks.

He points to micro-managers like Tom Izzo and Bruce Weber as examples of coaches who, in his observations, spend inordinate amounts of energy constantly communicating with his players on the floor. He attributes this to the increased scrutiny — and compensation — of their jobs.

“A lazy Gasaway (redundant) hypothesis holds that shouting and gesticulating from the sidelines have increased over the years in lockstep with salaries, as coaches seek to justify their increasingly lavish compensation in a purely visual manner: I am managing every aspect of this basketball game. I work hard for the money.”

That is simply preposterous. Some coaches like to be more vocal than others just as I like coffee and you like tea. It’s an innate quality that drives some coaches to pace the sideline barking orders at his charges while others sit calmly at the end of the bench until the situation dictates otherwise. On the whole, the more visibly active coaches are not attention whores, as it would appear Gasaway suggests.

He goes on to say, “Apart from the accolades due individual coaching stars, I think college basketball head coaches draw much of their occupational mystique from sheer narrative convenience.”

Basically, he thinks that these coaches are revered so strongly not for their ability to affect the outcome of the game as it unfolds, but because the fans and media give them too much credit.

He ends the post by saying, “I’d also love to see an annual game where the players from both teams coach themselves. My guess is that game wouldn’t look so very different from every other one, even without a guy on the sidelines shouting and gesticulating.”

If everything before this last sentence was teetering on the brink of ignorance, he pushed it over the edge on this final remark.

If you took every team’s head coach away strictly on the day of a single game, the effects may be marginal. Again, for that one day. But arguably more important than in-game tactics is the management of the team every other day of the season.

Connecticut is surviving just fine without Jim Calhoun during his three-game suspension for NCAA violations. If you swiped the Huskies of Calhoun and his assistants off the bench, even it were only on game days, for an entire season and forced the players to account for themselves, they would be a much different team. Same goes if every team also lost its coaches.

The impact of a coach on his team makes all the difference in the world. Would Butler have made two straight national championship games if there were no coaches? Absolutely not. Brad Stevens might be the best example I can use to debunk Gasaway’s theory. Stevens is a tremendous in-game tactician that does not growl up and down the sidelines like an Army general. He efficiently uses time-outs, makes intelligent substitutions, and always manages to exploit his opponent’s system. The Bulldogs are struggling this year because the losses of Gordan Heyward, Matt Howard, Shelvin Mack and company have left the team too young to pick up where the last two teams left off.

Having superior talent goes a long way in determining the outcome, but it is not the only component of winning basketball games. You need order, discipline, smarts, and leadership from a coach to play the game as it was intended to be.

The freshman point guard, who missed the team’s preseason trip to China with a knee injury, watched his career begin much slower than he would have liked. In the team’s first seven games, he played an average of only 7.5 minutes. Even on a top-10 team, that’s not the type of action McDonald’s All-Americans are used to seeing.

Since then, Cook has played at least 15 minutes in four of the Blue Devils’ last five games. In the last two outings against Western Michigan and Penn, Cook has dropped 17 assists without a single turnover.

Duke started the season strong with Seth Curry, Austin Rivers, and also Tyler Thornton controlling the backcourt. None of those players are true point guards, and it was exposed in Duke’s only loss, a 85-63 blowout at Ohio State. Aaron Craft and the Buckeyes rattled the Blue Devils early and they never recovered.

Following that game, it was hard to include Duke as a Final Four contender. Rivers was bogging down the offense more than he was facilitating it, and Curry proved that he is not ready to run the point against the best teams in the country.

That’s why Cook’s recent performances are so encouraging. Western Michigan isn’t Virginia, and Penn is North Carolina, but the effect Cook has made on Duke’s offense is apparent.

“He sees the floor as well as anybody on our team.  He really pushed the ball up the floor, and it gives guys like me and Andre [Dawkins] and Austin [Rivers] a reason to run and get open because we never know when he’s going to find us.  He’s doing a great job of finding us when we’re open and getting us shots,” Curry said Sunday.

That’s what Cook provides that Duke so desperately needs: someone who can set up Duke’s excellent perimeter shooters with open looks. With Curry running the offense, it took away most of his chances to spot up from three-point range.

With Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee and Ryan Kelly inside, Duke has the horses in the post to contend with anyone. They won’t dominate a front line like Kentucky, North Carolina or Ohio State’s, but they can hold their own. As Rivers grows more comfortable and improves throughout conference play, Duke will be extremely tough to stop.

The Blue Devils need Cook to continue to grow. We’ll find out what he’s really made of when ACC play gets under way. He’s earned the trust of his teammates, and more importantly his coach. Mike Krzyzewski thinks he’s got a good thing going now.

“The guys like playing with Quinn because he passes and when he passes he sees you in places where other people have a hard time seeing you. I mean he has 17 assists and no turnovers for two games. I don’t care who you’re playing against and he’s playing against a really good guard. That’s impressive, very impressive.”