Breaking down the 2012 football schedule

The upcoming football schedule for the ACC was released Monday afternoon. I immediately began thoroughly scouring the docket for all 12 teams to see who caught the breaks, who got jobbed by the schedule-makers, and what it all means in the race for the conference championship. Here are my deep and hopefully coherent thoughts on each team’s schedule. I’ll have some more broad thoughts on this schedule’s impact tomorrow morning, so stay tuned.

Boston College

Games 1-4: Miami, Maine, at Northwestern, Clemson

The Eagles will play Miami for the second time in as many conference games after ending their season with an upset win over the ‘Canes at Sun Life Stadium in 2011. The Hurricanes suffered major attrition and will be in full-fledged rebuilding mode in 2012, so this game will be a toss-up. Northwestern must deal with the loss of star quarterback Dan Persa, and the Wildcats’ defense was atrocious in 2011. Clemson should have no problem with the Eagles. A good start would be 3-1, but 2-2 is much more realistic. A 1-3 start is by no means out of the question

Games 5-8: at Army, at Florida State, at Georgia Tech, Maryland
Army struggled through a 3-9 season in 2011, but the Knights return their top seven rushers, including quarterback Trent Steelman, so that early October trip won’t be easy for the Eagles. Florida State will be loaded, and that is followed by a trip to Georgia Tech that will favor an experienced Yellow Jackets’ club. Maryland is in complete disarray, and will be hands down the league’s worst team in 2012. I’d expect the Eagles to go 2-2 in this stretch.

Games 9-12: at Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, at NC State

The Demon Deacons were sneaky good in 2011, and despite the loss of Chris Givens at wideout, should be solid again this season. That will be a tough road trip for the Eagles. Notre Dame must come to Chesnut Hill, and the Irish figure to be a fringe top-25 team in 2012. Virginia Tech has owned the Eagles in recent years, but the Hokies notoriously struggle when they must travel to Boston College. NC State has an outside shot at contending for the Atlantic Division title, which the Eagles do not. Two wins in this stretch would be a bit of a reach, one win isn’t even a certainty.

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The non-conference portion is manageable, with the Notre Dame game serving as the stiffest test. The Eagles did get a tough draw from the Coastal Division with Miami, at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. They also must travel to two of the three Atlantic Division contenders (FSU/NC State). The Eagles will be lucky to go bowling with this slate. Difficulty: 9

Clemson

Games 1-4: Auburn (in Atlanta), Ball State, Furman, at Florida State

The Tigers will play on the second night of the double-dip Chick-fil-A Kickoff against Auburn, which is absolutely loaded in the backfield and was last seen thumping a confident Virginia team in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. That game will be a huge opportunity for the Tigers to wash the disgusting taste of the Orange Bowl out of their mouths, but with great opportunity comes tremendous pressure. The Tigers simply cannot afford to lay an egg in that game for the sake of their national perception, and more importantly their psyche as team. So much is riding on that game.

The Tigers get two virtual bye weeks before the Florida State showdown, which will be one of epic proportions. The Seminoles will be looking for payback after last season’s electrifying game in Death Valley. Three wins should satisfy Clemson fans, but an undefeated September would have us back where we were in 2011 with the Tigers in the thick of the early national title conversation.

Games 5-8: at Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, at Wake Forest (Thursday)

The Tigers will be coming off an emotional game against the Seminoles when they travel north to face Boston College, but they have no excuse to lose that game. Georgia Tech has a bear of an early-season slate, but the Jackets will be tested by the time they visit Clemson. The Hokies have just one true test before Clemson, so they may be unbeaten when they visit on Oct. 20. That didn’t stop the Tigers from embarrassing last season, in Lane Stadium no less. A quick turnaround on the road in what will be an amped-up Wake Forest crowd is very, very dangerous.

Games 9-12: at Duke, Maryland, NC State, South Carolina

This is a relatively smooth final month of the season. The NC State game may loom large depending on how the Atlantic Division standings look at that point, and the South Carolina game is, well, the South Carolina game. It’s grown even more heated in recent years, thanks to some heated comments by both Dabo Swinney and Steve Spurrier. Nothing can be taken for granted, however. The Tigers are famous for late-season swoons.

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The first month is very tough with Auburn and Florida State away from home, and the league did the Tigers no favors with the quick turnaround from Virginia Tech to Wake Forest. Clemson is without question one of the best three teams in the conference heading into the season, but two losses in September could knock the Tigers off the tracks very early. Difficulty: 9.

Duke

Games 1-4: FIU, at Stanford, NC Central, Memphis

Mario Cristobal is gone at FIU, leaving to take the Rutgers’ job, but FIU is a program on the rise in the Sun Belt. Superstar receiver T.Y. Hilton is gone, though. The Blue Devils are historically terrible on opening day. Well, they are terrible on a lot of days, but especially game one. Stanford is a loss, NC Central is a win, and Memphis is a complete mess, so the Devils should win that one. Duke could actually win three games in September. Gasp.

Games 5-8: at Wake Forest, Virginia, at Virginia Tech, North Carolina

If the Blue Devils get off to a strong start, the Wake Forest game will go miles in determining their chances of making a bowl game for the first time in two decades. The Deacons hold the upper hand in that match-up, but it will be Duke’s last real chance at a win until November. Virginia isn’t getting any worse, and the Hokies and Tar Heels should have little trouble dispatching of the Devils.

Games 9-12: at Florida State, Clemson, at Georgia Tech, Miami

Yikes. An absolute death row of games to finish the season, particularly the first three of this stretch. Best-case, Duke enters this stretch 4-4 needing a split in these four games to make a bowl. Good luck with that.
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With the obvious exception of Stanford, the non-conference schedule couldn’t get much easier for Duke. It’s a brutal conference schedule that will keep the Blue Devils in the cellar of the league yet again. They draw two potential preseason top-10 teams from the other division, not to mention a trip to Wake Forest. We’re one-fourth of the way through the conference and it’s looking treacherous for every team. What is this? Difficulty: 9

Florida State

Games 1-4: Murray State, Savannah State, Wake Forest, Clemson

What is this, basketball? Four straight home games to open the season, including the first two against FCS opponents is about as easy a start as you can have. Obviously the Clemson game will be huge, but the Seminoles should be healthy and completely prepared for that game. There could be a bit of a look-ahead factor in the Wake match-up, but all signs point to a comfortable 3-0 start before the Tigers come to town.

Games 5-8: at South Florida, at NC State, Boston College, at Miami

South Florida will have a veteran roster that will be hungry to prove itself against the mighty Seminoles. The Bulls have historically performed extremely well against their in-state rivals. Coming off the emotional Clemson game, USF is a tricky foe. Another road trip to NC State won’t be easy; it was two years ago that the Wolfpack stunned the Seminoles in Raleigh on a Thursday night. BC and Miami are mortal locks to be wins.

Games 9-12: Duke, at Virginia Tech (Thursday), at Maryland, Florida

Oh, boy. The Seminoles go to Blacksburg for a Thursday night game. That will make for an ELECTRIC environment, and has game-of-the-year material written all over it (of course, there’s a legitimate argument these days that Lane isn’t what it used to be for those midweek games). Thankfully for the Seminoles, the Tech game is sandwiched between two cakewalks in Duke and Maryland. Florida shouldn’t be on the Seminoles’ level this year, but you never know what can happen in that game.

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The softness from back-to-back FCS opponent start is relatively offset by the trip to USF and the Florida game, but it’s still a non-conference slate that lends itself to four Seminole wins. Duke and Miami are surefire wins, but the Virginia Tech game has the potential to have national championship game implications. There’s a bunch of either very easy, or fairly difficult games for Florida State. Not too much in between. Difficulty: 7.

Georgia Tech

Games 1-4: at Virginia Tech (Labor Day), Presbyterian, Virginia, Miami

The winner of the Yellow Jackets-Hokies’ game has represented the Coastal Division in every ACC Championship Game ever played. Never have they met so early, however. These two teams not-so-secretly despite one another, and home field advantage hasn’t played much of a role in this series over the years. It’s a tough start for the Jackets, but they are embracing the challenge. Virginia could be a make-or-break game for the Yellow Jackets if they lose in Blacksburg. I’ve hated pretty hard on Miami, but they really shouldn’t beat Georgia Tech. Unless the Jackets are 1-2 and completely shaken, which is a possibility.

Games 5-8: Middle Tennesee, at Clemson, Boston College, BYU

Tech will be favored in three of four games in October, with the Clemson game potentially serving as a huge opportunity for Paul Johnson’s club to re-assert itself as a premier team in the ACC. The Georgia Tech-Clemson rivalry is a good one that typically serves up fantastically entertaining games. The Tigers will certainly want to exact revenge for Tech spoiling their perfect record in 2011. BYU lost top rusher JJ Di Luigi, but the Cougars are extremely well coached and are typically strong against BCS foes.

Games 9-12: at Maryland, at North Carolina, Duke, at Georgia

If Tech is in a position to win the Coastal Division, the trip North Carolina will be huge. The Tar Heels return Bryn Renner and Johnny White in the backfield, giving Carolina a dynamic offensive attack. Georgia will be strong as well. As mentioned earlier, Duke may be playing for a bowl bid, which would make that game the Blue Devils’ Super Bowl. It could be a harder November slate, but it’s manageable.

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Presbyterian, Middle Tennessee and even BYU should scare no one, so a 3-1 non-conference record should be expected. Drawing Maryland and Boston College from the Atlantic is a huge break as well. Even if the Yellow Jackets are a disappointment in 2011, five wins are virtually guaranteed. It’s hard to say how good Georgia Tech will be in 2012, but at least the schedule will give the Jacekts a chance to succeed. Difficulty: 5

Maryland

Games 1-4: William & Mary, at Temple, Connecticut, at West Virginia

The Tribe was a mere 5-6 last season, so the Terps should at least get off on the right foot. Temple will struggle without stud running back Bernard Pierce. The Randy Edsall bowl between Maryland and UConn will be an exhibit in bad football, so there’s that. West Virginia should stomp Maryland with ease. Even so, Terps couldn’t ask for a much more generous opening month.

Games 5-8: Wake Forest, at Virginia, NC State, at Boston College

Wake Forest must go to College Park, which gives that contest a smidgen of intrigue, but could be rolling coming off should-win games against Army and Duke. Virginia and NC State will have their way with the Terrapins, and Boston College may be desperately in need of a win for its bowl chances.

Games 9-12: Georgia Tech, at Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina

This may very well be the Randy Edsall Death March, with four potential blowout losses in a row to end the season. If Maryland even had a prayer of contending for the conference championship, Terp fans would be up in arms about this minefield of a final stretch. As it is, it will simply serve as a dreadful ending to a dreadful season.

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I’m not too shy about how bad of a shape Maryland is in. As easy as the opening month is for the Terrapins, the final month is the exact opposite. Three wins in September may be all Maryland gets. They sure as heck aren’t getting any in November. Mark it down. Difficulty: 7

Miami

Games 1-4: at Boston College, at Kansas State, Bethune-Cookman, at Georgia Tech

Miami is going to be very young, which may or may not be a good thing in this case as the Hurricanes try and move on from the Nevin Shapiro scandal. Having experience at QB with Stephen Morris gives them a fighting chance in the first two games, and the Georgia Tech game is winnable if the Yellow Jackets are reeling. Trying to pencil in a record for the U’s opening month is a crap shoot. It’s there for the taking, though.

Games 5-8: NC State, at Notre Dame (in Chicago), North Carolina, Florida State

A very tough road in the dog days of the season. The Wolfpack will enter its trip to Miami following back-to-back games against FCS foes, who Tom O’Brien’s club will be plenty rested and prepared for that contest. Notre Dame will be improved over the 2011 outfit that finished 8-5, and the Irish will have the upper hand in that contest. North Carolina is Miami’s best shot at a win in October, and it’s not a good one at that.

Games 9-12: Virginia Tech (Thursday), at Virginia, South Florida, at Duke

The Hurricanes will have an extra five days to prepare for Virginia Tech, who lost in Miami the last time the two met on a Thursday night in 2008. The Virginia game could play a pivotal role in the Coastal race if the Cavaliers are still alive in the hunt for the division title. South Florida is a strong club that will have no problem feasting on what may be a reeling Miami club. At least it all ends generously with a trip to Durham.

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Trips to Kansas State and Chicago for Notre Dame, not to mention a November date with South Florida, make for one of the more difficult non-conference schedules in the ACC in 2012. The season opener against Boston College is no walk in the park, either, as far as opening weekends go. It figures to be a rebuilding year in Coral Gables, and the hellish month of October could make for some tough times for the U.

NC State

Games 1-4: Tennessee (Friday in Atlanta), at UConn, South Alabama, The Citadel

The ‘Pack get things started in the two-night Atlanta affair to kick off the season with an intriguing match-up with the Volunteers. The quarterback match-up between Tyler Bray and Mike Glennon is worth the price of admission on its own. State will be on autupilot for the rest of the opening month, so knocking off the Vols could create some early-season buzz in Raleigh a la 2010.

Games 5-8: at Miami, Florida State, at Maryland, at North Carolina

Miami isn’t exactly a death trap for visiting foes, and the Wolfpack could be riding very high if it starts the year 4-0. An unbeaten start would create a colossal match-up with Florida State in mid-October in front of an electric crowd at Carter-Finley Stadium. Maryland and North Carolina are both winnable games, especially when you consider that it’s been six years since the Tar Heels beat the Wolfpack.

Games 9-12: Virginia, Wake Forest, at Clemson, Boston College

There’s a good chance the Wolfpack will be in the thick of the Atlantic Division race, meaning the Virginia came could turn out to be a very important one for all parties involved. Wake Forest won’t be an easy win late in the season, especially with a showdown in Death Valley looming on the horizon.

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This schedule sets up extremely well for what should be a solid Wolfpack squad to make a run at a conference title. The trips to North Carolina and Clemson will be stern tests, but getting Florida State at home is a sizable break for Glennon and Co.

North Carolina

Games 1-4: Elon, at Wake Forest, at Louisville, East Carolina

It’s not a miserable opening month, but one that could end terribly if the Heels aren’t careful. Larry Fedora can ease into his new gig with Elon, but Wake Forest won’t go quietly, especially in Winston-Salem. Louisville will be much improved in 2012 under third-year coach Charlie Strong. The Cardinals may even be favored in that game. East Carolina knows a thing or two about beating the big boys. An unbeaten start is possible, but so too is a three-loss opening month.

Games 5-8: Idaho, Virginia Tech, at Miami, at Duke

Idaho finished 2-10 last season, so no worries there for the Heels. Carolina notoriously gives Virginia Tech a tight game every year, and it obviously helps having that game in Chapel Hill. Miami will be in the midst of its Murderer’s Row mid-season stretch, so the ‘Canes may not be at full strength. Duke can knock off the Heels if they aren’t careful.

Games 9-12: NC State, Georgia Tech, at Virginia (Thursday), Maryland

As noted before, the Wolfpack have owned the Tar Heels in recent years, and that late October game could be an elimination game of sorts for either or both teams in the conference race. The contests with Georgia Tech and Virginia are no different. With only five days to prepare for a trip to Charlottesville, the game against the Cavaliers will be a tough one. Maryland should be an automatic W in the final week.

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This slate is dotted with tough games, with the toughest stretch coming from NC State to Virginia late in the season. It’s a very intriguing non-conference portion of the schedule, with a couple of challenging but not overwhelming contests. Missing Florida State and Clemson is a huge break for a Carolina team that will have the potential to challenge for the Coastal Division title. Difficulty: 6

Virginia

Games 1-4: Richmond, Penn State, at Georgia Tech, at TCU

The Wahoos should start 2-0 before traveling to Atlanta for an early showdown with Georgia Tech that will set the tone for Virginia’s hopes to contend for the Coastal Division. The trip to TCU is extremely difficult; the Horned Frogs return many key pieces from its 11-2 team last season.

Games 5-8: Louisiana Tech, at Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest

…and the award for easiest month of the season goes to! Wow, what an easy October for the Cavaliers. Wake Forest is the toughest game in this stretch, which is a very good thing. Louisiana Tech could stun the ‘Hoos if they don’t take the Bulldogs seriously (Tech went 8-5 last season). Virginia could be 6-2, 7-1 or maybe even 8-0 two-thirds of the way through the season. It’s there for the taking.

Games 9-12: at NC State, Miami, North Carolina (Thursday), at Virginia Tech

As I mentioned earlier, the NC State game will be a critical one in the conference race. Virginia absolutely owns Miami in recent years, and now the ‘Hoos have the upper hand on paper, for once. They must face the Tar Heels on short rest, but at least there’s no travel involved. The annual battle with the Hokies certainly seems like it will mean much more in the near future than it has over the last decade.

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Three wins should be expected from the non-conference slate, and the cross-divisional games are far from difficult. Virginia will be young but talented, and the schedule bodes well for the Cavaliers to take another step in the rebuilding process in Mike London’s third season as head coach. The road games are tough, but the home slate is incredibly soft. Difficulty: 6

Virginia Tech

Games 1-4: Georgia Tech (Labor Day), Austin Peay, at Pittsburgh, Bowling Green

Yet again, the Hokies open with a marquee match-up on opening weekend. For the second time in three years, they open the season on Labor Day. The Hokies have struggled in such season openers, but this will be the first time they’ll open with a big game in Lane Stadium. If they can get past a fired-up Yellow Jackets’ team, the rest of the opening month is not cause for much concern.

Games 5-8: Cincinnati (in Lanodover, Md.), at North Carolina, Duke, at Clemson

The Bearcats will be one of the least experienced teams in the country next season, while the Hokies’ return a wealth of experience, especially on the defensive side of the ball. It’s a smart move for the Hokies to play a game in the northern Virginia/DC area, where they have a deep alumni base. North Carolina always gives Tech trouble, so hitting the road to face the Heels will be a good mid-season test and a tune-up for the trip to Clemson two weeks later. The Tigers dominated the Hokies in 2011 in Blacksbug and on a neutral field. What level of confidence will the Hokies have going into Death Valley? It could be a battle of unbeatens.

Games 9-12: at Miami (Thursday), Florida State (Thursday), at Boston College, Virginia

The Hokies and Hurricanes always stage classic battles regardless of the talent gap between the two teams. The Hokies will have to be prepared for a tough match-up in Coral Gables instead of looking ahead to what should be one of the more highly anticipated home games in recent memory against Florida State. That could be a preview of the ACC Championship Game, which usually doesn’t happen in late November. In the best case, it may be an elimination game for the national title race. Then again, this is the ACC, so probably not.

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The Hokies love those early-season premier games, but at least they managed to host it this time, and they have all summer to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option. If they beat the Yellow Jackets, it’s hard to see the Hokies losing before the trip to Clemson in late October. Drawing Florida State and Clemson is rough, but Tech has the horses to win either of those games. Another 10-win season is a safe expectation. Difficulty: 8.

Wake Forest

Games 1-4: Liberty, at North Carolina, Florida State, Army

A 2-2 start would be the worst-case scenario, but Wake does catch Florida State a week before Clemson, which helps its case against the Seminoles. North Carolina is also winnable, but a split of the first four games is the likely outcome in the Deacons’ case.

Games 5-8: Duke, at Maryland, at Virginia, Clemson (Thursday)

Wake should pick up two wins against Duke and Maryland before playing a couple of the big boys of the league in a span of six days. The Clemson game will be one of the biggest in school history if Wake is 5-2 or 4-3 and the Tigers are off to the strong start its expected to have. Another 2-2 split is expected in this stretch, putting Wake in position for a second straight bowl appearance with a strong finish down the stretch.

Games 9-12: Boston College, at NC State, at Notre Dame, Vanderbilt

If Wake is indeed in need of a couple wins to make the postseason, it’s going to be a challenge, but not impossible. Boston College should be slight underdogs to the Deacons, but every other game favors Wake’s opponent. Vanderbilt a program on the rise, but that could be a very compelling game for the Deacons if they are gunning for win No. 6.

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Liberty, Army, Notre Dame and Vanderbilt is a fair non-conference schedule. Virginia, Duke and North Carolina is a challenging but not all too formidable cross-divisional slate. There’s a distance chance Wake could steal an upset win at home against either Florida State or Clemson, but the rest of the home schedule is relatively easy. It’s a middle of the road schedule for a middle of the road team. Difficulty: 6

Report — Larry Fedora hired at UNC: My thoughts

North Carolina ended all of the uncertainty Wednesday when it came to an agreement with Larry Fedora to make him its next head football coach. This according to the Winston-Salem Journal.

Fedora comes to Chapel Hill following a four-year stint at Southern Mississippi where he compiled a 33-19 record. The Golden Eagles captured the Conference USA title on Saturday when they stunned previously unbeaten Houston 49-28 in the conference championship game.

He will replace Everett Withers, who was the interim head coach for this past season after the school fired Butch Davis in late July, just days before the start of fall camp.

Fedora brings a strong offensive background with him to North Carolina. He was the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State from 2005-2007, and before that he was an offensive assistant at Florida for three seasons.

At Southern Miss, Fedora’s offenses have ranked in the top three scoring offenses in the conference each of the past three seasons. He has an outstanding track record at developing a dominant rushing game. The Golden Eagles led the league in rushing yards per game this season, and were second in the conference the two seasons prior to that. When he was at Oklahoma State, the Cowboys were among the top 10 rushing teams in the nation each of his last two seasons there.

Fedora also has a proven track record as a recruiter. His first class at Southern Miss was ranked 37th in the country by Rivals and included five-star wide receiver DeAndre Brown. Brown was named a second-team All-American in 2009 and left for the NFL after his junior season in 2010.

Fedora is a high-energy coach who maintained the consistency at Southern Miss that his predecessor, Jeff Bower, established. Only Florida, Florida State and Virginia Tech have longer active streaks of winning seasons in the FBS.

Fedora will bring a solid staff and a hard work ethic to Chapel Hill. He is a disciplinarian and will run a clean program, which is of paramount importance following the John Blake saga that has yet to be resolved by the NCAA.

But there remains the obvious question. Will he win big at North Carolina? History tells us no. He hasn’t really won big at Southern Miss until this season, but he’s extremely consistent. If North Carolina was ever going to become an elite football program, it seemed like it was going to happen on Butch Davis’ watch. Fairly or unfairly, Davis took the fall for the mess that was going on within the program on his watch.

It would be reasonable to expect Carolina to bounce around between seven and nine wins every season with Fedora at the helm. But isn’t that about all the school ever really wants anyway?

ACC Bowl Schedule: Instant Analysis

The bowl pairings are out. Lots of intriguing matchups for the ACC. Here’s a quick overview of the games:

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Dec. 26, 5 pm Advocare V100 Independence Bowl North Carolina (7-5) vs. Missouri (7-5) ESPN2

• Good for the Tar Heels to reach the postseason after firing Butch Davis less than one week before the season started. Four of Missouri’s losses came against ranked teams. Should be a great game.

Dec. 27, 8 pm Belk Bowl NC State (7-5) vs. Louisville (7-5) ESPN

• The Wolfpack finished the season strong, highlighted by their 37-13 rout of Clemson at home. Louisville won five of six games to end the season and was co-champion of the Big East. Both programs could use a win in this game to springboard into next season.

Dec. 29, 5:30 pm Champs Sports Bowl Florida State (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4) ESPN

• Quite the face-off of traditional powers in this one. Florida State is the better than Notre Dame, but the ‘Noles were also better than Wake Forest and Virginia but still lost.

Dec. 30, 6:40 pm Music City Bowl Wake Forest (6-6) vs. Mississippi St. (6-6) ESPN

• Mississippi State played a brutal schedule. The Bulldogs are much better than a typical 6-6 team. Hard to see the Deacons winning this one. Unless Dan Mullen’s potential departure becomes a distraction…

Dec. 31, 2 pm Hyundai Sun Bowl Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Utah (7-5) CBS

• Bring your hard hat to this game. Two very physical teams will go at it in this game. Utah was wildly inconsistent this season. Slight edge to Georgia Tech in this game, but history is not on the Yellow Jackets’ side. They’ve yet to win a bowl game under Paul Johnson.

Dec. 31, 7:30 pm Chick-fil-A Bowl Virginia (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5) ESPN

• Mike London did a wonderful job guiding the Cavaliers to a premier bowl game. Outside of a three-point road win against South Carolina, Auburn has not another impressive performance this season. I like Virginia.

Jan. 3, 8:30 p.m. Allstate Sugar Bowl Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Michigan (9-3) ESPN

• Hokie fans, give yourself a pat on the back. It is your loyalty – and willingness to travel – that put gave your team a BCS at-large bid over more deserving teams like Boise State and Baylor. Michigan had a resurgent season under first-year coach Brady Hoke and boast one of the most explosive players in the country in quarterback Denard Robinson.

Jan. 4, 8 p.m. Discover Orange Bowl Clemson (10-3) vs. West Virginia (9-3) ESPN

• The Tigers put on a show in the ACC Championship Game. With their swagger back, it’s going to be tough for the Mountaineers to hang close. West Virginia won its last three games against mediocre competition by an average of 2.3 points just to make it here.

State of the Program: Clemson

Perennial underachievers. That’s the overwhelming perception of the Tigers’ program. It’s something that Athletic Director Terry Don Phillips basically admitted to in an interview with Athlon Sports Magazine last week. Clemson is one of three ACC schools in the footprint of the most football-crazed area of the country. It has one of the best game-day atmospheres around. But the Tigers have not won 10 games in a season since 1990.

In 2009, the Tigers moved into a new, 14,000 square-foot football facility called the “West Zone” at Memorial Stadium. It was a much-needed upgrade that had been nearly six years in the making. It brought the Tigers much closer to a level playing field recruiting against the behemoth facilities in the SEC.

Which brings up the toughest part of being successful at Clemson. Although the Tigers are blessed with being surrounded by a plethora of blue-chip recruits, the Tigers are recruiting against SEC programs without being able to sell the opportunity of competing in the SEC. Sure, on the outside Clemson looks like an SEC program with its 80,000-plus seat stadium and its locale, but the ACC is nothing more than the red-headed stepchild of the SEC when it comes to football.

In spite of that, Clemson has managed to recruit well at times, especially in 2011 when they signed three five-star players, according to Rivals.com. However, they have lost several key in-state battles in recent years, ever since they landed Da’Quan Bowers in 2008. Players like Alshon Jeffery, Stephon Gilmore, A.J. Green, Bruce Taylor, Everett Dawkins, Robert Quinn, and Marcus Lattimore all signed elsewhere. Of those seven players, four signed with the SEC. That’s a pretty tough pill to swallow as a Clemson fan to let every single one of those big-name prospects slip away.

Now, with all that said, Clemson should consistently pull in a top-25 recruiting class. There’s enough talent to go around in that area where basically ever BCS program should sign impressive classes on an annual basis. The Tigers still consistently out-recruit most of the ACC.

So, you can cross lack of talent off the board as an overriding factor as to why Clemson has made just one ACC Championship Game appearance since 2005. Quite frankly, the Tigers just don’t have the right man in charge.

Dabo Swinney was chosen to replace Tommy Bowden in 2008 without any prior head coaching experience. He is passionate for Clemson football and embraced the opportunity with the full support of Phillips and the rest of the athletic department. Quite frankly, Swinney has always been in entirely too far above his head. He took a senior-laden team in 2009 to the conference title game in a miserable year for the league. His 19-15 record as head coach is unimpressive.

Clemson has a chance to be a dominant program in the ACC, but it has to get there with a little bit of luck. They went the exactly correct route in 1999 when they hired Tommy Bowden, who had incredible success at Tulane. He was an up-and-coming, proven successful head coach with a good pedigree. He had Clemson in the right direction before eventually unraveling. Was Bowden the right guy? No. But it was the right thought process.

Clemson is not going to pull away an established BCS coach in the middle of a successful run at his respective school. It seems they may already have a contingency plan in place if Swinney struggles in 2011 with new offensive coordinator Chad Morris. The hire of Morris from Tulsa was Swinney’s idea, but it still seems to be a seamless exit strategy if the Tigers sputter.

Morris would be a big risk, having only been in the college ranks for two years heading into 2011. Clemson can win and win big if it has a coach who knows how to win at the FBS level. Only a handful of assistant coaches would qualify as home-run hires at Clemson.

Here’s a list of a select few coaches that would be excellent hires at Clemson:

(In order of best to worst fit)

Skip Holtz (Head Coach, South Florida)

Gus Malzahn (Offensive Coordinator, Auburn)

Kirby Smart (Defensive Coordinator, Alabama)

Kevin Sumlin (Head Coach, Houston)

Mario Cristobal (Head Coach, Florida International)

With the right man in charge, there’s no reason Clemson shouldn’t win nine games on a consistent basis, with at least five wins in the league. The Atlantic Division is downright awful except for Florida State. Because the Tigers’ situation is so unique, if the head coach isn’t the exact right fit, Clemson will almost always be an 8-4 (4-4)-type team.

Talkin’ football with ESPN’s Bruce Feldman

ESPN.com’s Bruce Feldman was kind enough to make his second appearance at ACC Mania this week. This time around, we talked about the biggest news in the ACC this off-season, and started to look ahead to the 2011 season. Bruce is my favorite college football writer in the business, and a great guy to boot. His books, Meat Market and Cane Mutiny, are both great reads.

Here’s what he had to say:

ACC Mania – True or false, Butch Davis will be North Carolina’s head coach in 2012? Why or why not?
Bruce Feldman – False. I am skeptical UNC can keep the head of a program when his long-time close friend and righthand man acted as a runner for an agent. Davis also presided over a program with widespread agent issues with numerous players and where you had a rogue tutor who among other things spent four figures to pay parking tickets for players. Not knowing ANY of that I think will ultimately be too tough for UNC brass to stomach and no re-consider pushing the “reset” button in the face of huge NCAA sanctions.
The program had significantly built up its talent base in Davis first four seasons, although in fairness a lot of that was due to the efforts of John Blake. Still, Davis hasnt even had a winning season in ACC play yet, and now you’re looking at a future where it’s going to be even more challenging for this program to get much traction over the next five-plus years.

AM – We’ve been so eager to proclaim the resurgence of Florida State in recent years, yet this year it seems more within reach than before. What’s your stance on the future of the Seminoles under Jimbo Fisher?

BF – I’m on the bandwagon. I have FSU in the top six this season. I’d spent some time there this spring and noted how there has been impressive buy-in at all levels. Fisher’s staff is recruiting very well and with the staff he assembled I dont see that slowing down. It also helps that Fisher took over right as their two arch-rivals, Miami and UF were about to go through their own transitions.

AM – There was a plethora of restless Hokie fans after the team’s embarrassing Orange Bowl loss to Stanford in January. Frank Beamer made changes to his coaching staff the following month. Has Virginia Tech hit a wall, or can they break through to being a more serious national championship contender?

BF – Good question. I do think its very hard for any coaching regime to go someplace it hasn’t gone in the previous decade. The energy that comes with some new assistants can be very good, but for as good as Tech has been, I’m not sure they’ll push it to an even higher level.

AM – Did Tom O’Brien do the right thing in “benching” Russell Wilson, eventually leading to his departure?

I don’t know enough about what was really going on there behind the scenes. I’m curious how the majority of the guys in the locker room really feel about Wilson and how his departure was viewed there. (Mike) Glennon will be around longer, but given how productive Wilson was, it certainly has the potential to blow up in O’Brien’s face.

OBrien’s only 25-25 in four seasons there. If the offense really struggles and the Pack goes, say 5-7, while Wilson ends up leading Wisconsin to the Big Ten title it’s only going to inflame even more State fans.

AM – Georgia Tech struggled last season after winning the 2009 ACC Championship. They clearly lacked a receiving threat was Demaryius Thomas to keep defenses honest. Was that the biggest difference last season, or have teams begun to figure out how to defend that offense?

BF — I think teams in the league have got a better sense on how to handle that scheme. It doesn’t mean it’s not a big problem, but without some of the dimensions, it makes it that much more manageable.

AM – Clemson is a sleeping giant. Excellent facilities, fan base, and recruiting grounds. Why aren’t they more successful?

I’m not sure they have the right head coach. Lots of places can be transformed from underwhelming to powerhouse if they have the right guy pushing buttons at the top, setting the right tone. In the case of Dabo, it’s never easy for a first-time head coach to have a major college job the first time around.

AM – Who makes it to the conference championship game, and who comes out on top this year?

BF — I’ll say FSU over VT.

ACC Stock Report – Week 5

As I noted Sunday morning, there was a lot of re-shuffling in the ACC this weekend. There is finally a large enough sample size for these teams that we can begin forming theories rather than hypotheses about them.

So who is rising, and who is falling as we enter the thick of the ACC race?

Stock rising –

VIRGINIA TECH (3-2, 2-0)

Left for dead as far as two quarters into their third game, the Hokies have completely avenged the most disastrous start in the Frank Beamer era.

Bud Foster’s young defense is finally figuring out how to play like Tech defenses of old. It intercepted Russell Wilson three times (he had thrown only one in his first four games) in the comeback win on Saturday.

The offensive line is also opening holes for the running game to take shape. Darren Evans and Tyrod Taylor both became the first 100-yard rushers of the season for the Hokies against NC State.

The rest of October is pretty easy for the Hokies, so there is a return of good spirits in Blacksburg.

MARYLAND (4-1, 2-0)

Any chance I get to remind folks that my surprise team of the year was this very Maryland team, which has already doubled its win total from 2009.

One great sign of a good football team is one that can win with style just as much as they can without it.

Maryland has done that, shutting down Navy on the goal-line in the final moments to win the season opener.

Then, this past Saturday the Terps had a trying time beating the hapless Duke Blue Devils.

After trailing 9-0, Maryland raced back to beat Duke 21-16, despite being outgained by 100 yards.

Maryland is confident right now, and there isn’t a team in the Atlantic Division that the Terps aren’t capable of beating.

FLORIDA STATE (4-1, 2-0)

It’s still hard to believe the Seminoles laid an ostrich-sized egg in Norman, Okla. last month.

Outside of that 47-17 beatdown defeat, Florida State’s defense is allowing fewer than eight points per game.

They haven’t looked any more impressive than the first half against Virginia, where the running game overpowered the Cavaliers.

If that aspect of the ‘Noles offense proves volatile, Christian Ponder can take care of the rest.

Don’t look now, but Florida State is playing without a glaring weakness.

Just in time for a trip to Miami, no less.

Stock Falling –

GEORGIA TECH (3-2, 2-1)

Whatever happened to the Yellow Jackets being the epitome of consistency? Common thought among the ACC (and the nation, for that matter) was that Paul Johnson had his peers trumped on a week-to-week basis.

Turns out, opposing teams have figured out the Yellow Jackets.

Wake Forest – yes, that Wake Forest – should have handed Tech its second conference loss in a row on Saturday. Instead, the Deacons couldn’t handle the pressure of a 17-6 lead and lost on a last-minute touchdown pass.

The defending ACC champions should never have to hold their breath against the perennial bottom-feeder of the conference.

It doesn’t help their case that Kansas, which beat the Jackets 28-25 in week two, just lost to Baylor 55-7. In fact, the Jayhawks are averaging 10.5 points per game besides the win over the Jackets.

There is turmoil on defense, and there is a lack of leadership on offense. Georgia Tech is all but an afterthought in the ACC race.

MIAMI (3-1, 1-0)

Despite outscoring their past two opponents 61-24, the Hurricanes have done so in the least impressive fashion possible.

Miami’s defense is top-notch, make no mistake about it.

It forced Kyle Parker to throw three interceptions, as well as recovering three fumbles in the 30-21 win at Clemson.

However, Jacory Harris has been wildly inconsistent, throwing eight interceptions in three games.

Miami is probably the best team in the league right now, but the gap between the next closest challengers is narrowing.

If you want to assume the top of the mountain, you have to do so convincingly. Until Miami does that, they can not be the undisputed leader of the pack in the conference.

NC STATE (4-1, 1-1)

The Wolfpack finally ran into a team playing halfway decent football and couldn’t finish the deal.

It seems the title “Undefeated NC State” was quite overrated.

Wins over Cincinnati (1-3) and the aforementioned struggling Georgia Tech do not carry much weight at this point, not to mention a mere seven-point margin of victory over Central Florida (2-2).

The Wolfpack jumped out early on Virginia Tech, but so did East Carolina. What matters is that Russell Wilson looked merely mortal facing the Tech blitzing package, throwing three costly interceptions.

Wilson won’t play so poorly every week, but it was the defense’s poor tackling that should be more alarming.

Tyrod Taylor and an assortment of Hokies broke through arm tackles on a play-by-play basis in the second half, paving the way for the come-from-behind win.

The Wolfpack’s run defense has holes the size of downtown Raleigh, and that’s not a good formula heading into a game against Montel Harris and Boston College.

Doomsday

Whoever this guy Murphy is has some competition for the naming rights to his law.

Anything that could go wrong for the ACC did, and at the worst possible moment.

On a day when the two most prominent match-ups featured the most storied programs in the conference clamoring to reach the top of college football once more, both were annihilated.

Also, the conference favorite lost – to an FCS school, the second time a ranked team has lost such a game in the history of the sport.

So did the defending league champion – to school which failed to produce a touchdown in a loss to another FCS school the week before.

A season full of hope suddenly became one on the verge of disaster.

Five teams were ranked in the preseason AP top 25 poll, the most in six years. Only one remains, and not a single one has a winning record.

Look at it this way. Miami failed to score an offensive touchdown until the fourth quarter and threw four interceptions in a 36-24 loss at Ohio State, and they had the best day of the perceived “contenders” in the ACC.

Meanwhile, Florida State was getting beaten like a drum in Norman, Okla. by the Sooners.

Bob Stoops made mince meat of his brother’s defense at FSU, putting up 487 yards of total offense and 47 points on the Seminoles.

Entering the year, for Miami and Florida State to take the “next step” in rebuilding their respective programs, it was clear where they had to improve. Clearly neither has.

Miami is still undisciplined on offense. Head coach Randy Shannon admitted to several communication errors between the receivers and quarterback Jacory Harris on Saturday. That shouldn’t happen with an experienced group of pass-catchers and a seasoned veteran under center. That falls on not only the players, but the coaching staff as well. There is more than a simple problem down in Coral Gables.

Florida State had to revamp a defense that ranked at or near the bottom of the ACC in every category last season. A scheme that worked for three decades under Mickey Andrews suddenly failed for one year. Sounds like a personnel problem, rather than a coaching problem to me.

Mark Stoops clearly hasn’t made the impact head coach Jimbo Fisher thought he would as the new coordinator. Landry Jones torched the Seminole secondary for 380 yards and four touchdowns, succinctly shredding the supposed vaunted zone defense Stoops brought with him to Tallahassee.

Even Christian Ponder, the face of Florida State (and for that matter, ACC) football struggled mightily against a Sooner defense that is nothing remarkable. Ponder had perhaps the worst game of his career, completing just 11 of 28 passes and throwing two interceptions. It’s not going to be a fun week in Florida, that’s for sure.

Georgia Tech thought it could survive without the likes of Derrick Morgan, Morgan Burnett, Jonathan Dwyer, and Demaryius Thomas – all key components of last year’s ACC Championship team currently in the NFL. The Jacket’s can’t.

Joshua Nesbitt is still the same run-first quarterback with no ability to throw the football. He was bailed out time after time last year by Thomas catching deep balls like he was the world champion of “500″.

There is no such deep threat this year, rendering the Jackets so one-dimensional its criminal.

Kansas loaded the box and demolished the Jackets’ running game. When they had to play catch-up late in the game, Nesbitt was inept. He finished the game with five completions on fifteen attempts.

The Jackets’ did run for 291 yards, but most of that came between the 20-yard lines. They couldn’t cash in when it mattered most, in the red zone.

Georgia Tech is going to have a hard time winning games this year if they can’t grind it out near the end zone, or have some semblance of a passing game.

The most embarrassing loss of all came in Blacksburg, where Virginia Tech shockingly lost its first non-conference home game in its last 33 tries to FCS foe James Madison.

The Hokies struggled to tackle on a wet field, and the offensive line failed to open holes for its star running backs or protect Tyrod Taylor.

The Hokies succumbed to the hangover of the Boise State loss just five days earlier, and a drowsy environment inside Lane Stadium doomed the preseason sixth-ranked team in the coaches’ poll.

The most impressive game of the day came in the still of the night, when Virginia played inspired football in a 17-14 loss to USC. The Cavaliers were missing star cornerback Ras-I Dowling, yet still managed to keep the Trojans’ talented offense in check all night.

Mike London is doing wonders as Virginia’s new head coach. The spirit surrounding that program is at a level not felt in more than a decade. The Cavaliers have inferior talent to just about anyone in the ACC, yet they are playing better and more confidently than most of the league.

When the perennial cellar-dweller of your league carries the conference banner for the weekend, 99 percent of the time it’s a terrible thing. That’s the case this week, when the ACC didn’t just come to a standstill, but was launched backward in its climb to gain national respect.

Why Miami is the ACC’s best hope at a title in 2010

If you were among the 98% of the country that hated hearing “The U is back” everywhere you turned last September, this post is not for you.

For the record, I was in that 98%.

Miami was the center of the college football world after barely escaping Florida State (which finished 6-6) and beating eventual ACC champion Georgia Tech soundly on Thursday night.

That was all it took to make Miami a revived program.

The wheels began to wobble after that, and the Hurricanes finished 9-3.

Start quarterback Jacory Harris admitted that Miami was too flashy, too cocky, and it cost them. He says they won’t pull the rug out from under their own feet this year.

If they don’t, look out, because Miami is scary.

The ‘Canes recruiting class of 2008, which was rated number one by most services, are coming into their own as redshirt sophomores and juniors.

The volume of playmakers is incomparable in this league.

Take last week’s scrimmage for example. There were seven touchdowns, including four of 20 yards or more.

Last year’s Miami team was athletic and immature. This year’s team is, well, athletic.

The Hurricanes could honestly lose their top two running backs to injury and be fine. Then they could lose the third back to suspension, and be fine. They could even lose that fourth running back for personal reasons, and be OK.

The reason Miami is the ACC’s best hope for a national title starts with the schedule. The ‘Canes travel to Ohio State in week two. A win would likely vault them close to the top five in the polls. A loss would not cripple them, because the rest of the schedule is strong enough that a 1-loss season would keep them in the hunt.

Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia Tech all come to Coral Gables. Road trips include Pittsburgh, Clemson and Georgia Tech.

Miami faces six teams ranked in the top 25 of the preseason coaches’ poll, most in the country.

The ‘Canes could easily be favored in five of them.

If the baby-Canes have truly grown up like Harris says, they could actually hold serve as the favorite in those games, unlike last year, when Virginia Tech and Clemson stunned them.

Meanwhile, the other best hope for a championship lies in Blacksburg, but the schedule is not promising. The Hokies could very easily start 8-0 if they get by Boise State in week one, but not many folks think they can navigate a tough November schedule.

Georgia Tech at home, followed with North Carolina and Miami on the road is as tough a 3-game stretch at the end of the season as anyone. A single loss, and the Hokies’ title dreams can be kissed goodbye.

Miami does play Georgia Tech on the road the week before the Hokies, but they get Maryland and South Florida at the beginning and end of the month. It’s a tough, but not as imposing as Virginia Tech’s.

Who is the best team in the ACC? I think it’s the Hokies. I think the rebuilt defense will not be the question mark people expect it to be. But those two straight road contests right before the finish line will be too grueling.

Miami has one less stumbling block at the end of its season, meaning they can afford a slip-up in that early season gauntlet.

Even if Miami loses a game early, but responds by winning out, the pollsters will be all over the U again.

ACC Commissioner John Swofford acknowledged last month that the league needed Miami and Florida State to be strong again for the welfare of the conference.

If there’s one team to make him proud this year, it just might be the ‘Canes.

Goal-setting exercises

In one of their more impressive impersonations of political figures, college football coaches are as noncommittal as ever when talking about goals for the upcoming season. It usually goes something like this: “We want to win our conference championship, and play for so-and-so bowl game, and obviously try to win a national championship.”

When that coach is from a preseason top 20 team, that’s somewhat acceptable. When that coach is from a 4-8 team the year before replacing eight starters on offense, he’s lying through his coffee-stained teeth.

So instead of listening to what each coach tells everyone is his team’s goal for the year, here’s what I think the team’s should truly be posting over the doors to the locker room.

The following are what I believe are the realistic goals for every team – seasons that would merit a success – along with a stretch goal, one that would spill cash out of boosters’ wallets faster than oil in the gulf.

BOSTON COLLEGE

Making the ACC Championship game. The Eagles were picked third in the Atlantic Division (though I have them picked first) behind Clemson and Florida State. Shaky quarterback play is the biggest question mark surrounding Frank Spaziani’s team. If they can salvage an average passing game, running back Montel Harris will take care of the rest. The defense will be solid as always, too.

Stretch: It’s probably too much to ask the Eagles to win the conference, given the wealth of talent in the Coastal Division, where the champion will come from in all likelihood. But as we’ve seen in the past, only a fool counts the Eagles out of anything.

CLEMSON

Win 10 games. It’s something the Tigers have failed to do since reaching the mark four straight times from 1987-90. They have won nine games four times since 2000, including last season when they played for the conference title. A 10-win season would likely punch their ticket to the championship game again. Clemson has a knack for losing at least one game that they have no business doing so every year. Games against Maryland, NC State and Wake Forest all fit that bill this year. Winning the games you should win is an important part of being a high-level program consistently. The Tigers need to do that if they want such respect.

Stretch: Winning the ACC Championship. It’s not very likely, given the Tigers’ lack of proven commodities at wide receiver, but don’t sleep on Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper in the backfield. Kyle Parker’s return was worth at least two more wins, but it’s debatable if that’s enough for a repeat division title. The middle of the schedule is absolutely brutal.

DUKE

Keep the program steady. Last season’s 5-7 showing was a huge step in the right direction, but replacing legendary quarterback Thad Lewis’ production will be tough. Duke has the talent to win five games this year, but it’s hard to find another game or two to make them bowl eligible. Next season should be a true coming out party for David Cutcliffe’s team, but as long as he keeps the Blue Devils afloat this season, it’s a job well done.

Stretch: Six wins. As I said before, the talent is there on the surface. The experience and the depth across the board is not. The defense has to come a long way to be considered respectable in the league, while the offense is already in that conversation. Six wins and the first bowl game since 1995 for Duke would earn Cutcliffe serious coach of the year considerations.

FLORIDA STATE

They might be on the rise back to dominance, but the bar is set a bit lower than a national championship in Tallahassee for the time being. An ACC title is within reach, however. The ‘Noles were picked by the media to lose to Virginia Tech in the championship game. With a Heisman Trophy contender under center, FSU’s second conference title in six years is a distinct possibility. It’s all up to the defense to right the ship and give Christian Ponder and his offense some breathing room.

Stretch: Win the Orange Bowl. That would be a major accomplishment in Jimbo Fisher’s first year as head coach. It would likely earn the Seminoles a ranking near or inside the top ten of the final polls. If Fisher wants to prove his worth after Bobby Bowden’s much-maligned retirement last year, he has to big things with this program fast.

GEORGIA TECH

Do the Yellow Jackets have enough left in their arsenal to win a second straight conference championship? Yes. Paul Johnson has set the standard at Georgia Tech to conference titles, and nothing else. As long as Joshua Nesbitt is under center, the Jackets have a chance to win every game. Despite suffering sizable losses to the NFL on the defensive side, I expect Al Groh’s influence to keep the defense’s head above water. The Coastal Division is a four-way toss-up, and there’s no reason Tech shouldn’t be given an equal shot to come out ahead.

Stretch: Seven conference wins. The Coastal is so tough that a 5-3 conference record could feasibly win it. If the Jackets, who face Clemson, Wake Forest and NC State from the other division, can make it through the league with one loss, we might just see that funky little triple option start to catch on elsewhere.

MARYLAND

Ralph Friedgen needs a bowl game to keep his job, if that’s still possible. Six wins is absolutely possible, given the firepower on offense between Da’Rel Scott and Torrey Smith. The biggest game on the Terps’ schedule is Navy in the season opener. That game will set the tone for Maryland’s season. The Terps need to at least keep it close, but more so win that game to prove, even to themselves, that they have put last season behind them.

Stretch: Beating West Virginia, Miami, or Florida State would be a monumental upset, but one that might save Friedgen’s job. Think it’s crazy? Don’t forget that Maryland knocked off Atlantic champion Clemson last season in Death Valley.

MIAMI

Win the Orange Bowl. The hype surrounding Miami this year is as high as its been since the ‘Canes entered the ACC. To validate the job Randy Shannon has done with the program, he needs a 11 or 12-win season, a conference title and a signature BCS win. Miami is good enough to do it. If they get by Ohio State and Pittsburgh in September, it’s safe to say the Hurricanes will be a top five team heading into a Oct. 9 date with Florida State.

Stretch: Play for the national championship. Where as at Florida State, it doesn’t seem to be the standard at this point, Miami fans, players and coaches alike seem to think they have the ability to make it that far. It’s absolutely in their minds. They would have to navigate a killer schedule (which doesn’t seem likely), but if there’s one team in the ACC that can afford one loss and still play for the championship, it’s Miami.

NORTH CAROLINA

Don’t bottom out. Expectations were (and maybe still are) sky-high in Chapel Hill, until the NCAA paid a visit. The infamous investigations into Marvin Austin and Greg Little, two of the most prominent players on the Tar Heels’ roster, could drill a hole in the team’s high hopes. The season begins with LSU and Georgia Tech, followed by a trip to play a sneaky Rutgers team. If the scrutiny surrounding the program seeps in to the players (and coaches) and the Heels stumble out of the gate, it will destroy most, if not all of the positive momentum Butch Davis has infused into the program.

Stretch: Win the Coastal Division. They were the sexy pick before the investigation, but once news broke of the NCAA’s case, the Heels were picked a distant fourth in the division at media day. Regardless of whether Austin and/or Little are eligible, the Heels can only hope to rally around the scandal and live up to those lofty expectations anyway.

NC STATE

Finish above .500. It’s a feat the Wolfpack have yet to accomplish under Tom O’Brien. The schedule is an absolute minefield this year, with trips to Georgia Tech and North Carolina, as well as a home date with Virginia Tech. It’s hard to look at the ‘Pack’s schedule and pick out seven wins. The defense will have to step up on several occasions to keep them in the game. The Sept. 16 date with Cincinnati is huge to how the rest of the Wolfpack’s season will play out. If State doesn’t make a bowl this year, it’s going to put O’Brien on very thin ice.

Stretch: Contend for the division title. There seems to be a distinct gap between the top three teams (FSU, Clemson, Boston College) and the bottom three in the Atlantic Division, but NC State could play above expectations and make it interesting. Any time you have Russell Wilson leading the charge, there’s a chance to win the game. The final score might be 50-45, but there’s a chance.

VIRGINIA

Two ACC wins would be a positive start to the Mike London era. There’s simply too many holes in the Cavs’ roster to expect much better. Their three easiest conference games are at Duke, Maryland, and at Boston College. The rest of the conference schedule is almost out of the question. If Virginia can give a respectable showing against a couple of the big dogs and sneak a couple wins in as well, London would have the program headed in the right direction.

Stretch: Finish 6-6. A .500 season seems almost too far-fetched, given that it requires likely three conference wins. If the Cavaliers win six games, the rest of the league should watch out, because it’ll be hard to imagine what London will do when all the talent he’s recruiting actually suits up for him,

VIRGINIA TECH

It’s time to put up or shut up in Blacksburg. A senior quarterback with an experience receiving corps and an unstoppable backfield tandem spells national championship contender. The Hokies have consistently been the best team in the ACC, but have hardly sniffed the national title race in the latter stretches of the season. A three-game gauntlet of Georgia Tech, followed by trips to North Carolina and Miami will be the biggest test of the season for the Hokies. Any team that makes it out of that stretch alive deserves to play for all the marbles. This might be Frank Beamer’s best, last chance at the elusive championship, given the uncertainty with how long he’ll stick around at Tech.

Stretch: 14-0. It’s a nearly impossible task, given the season opener with Boise State, plus that death trap known as November, then a conference and national championship game. But if you’re ranked sixth in the country, and you have the pieces like the Hokies do, that has to be the absolute pinnacle goal. The only other team in the conference that could even consider this possible is Miami. Imagine, Hokies-Canes, battle of unbeatens on November 20…

WAKE FOREST

Four wins would be a serious accomplishment. Riley Skinner was Wake Forest, and now head coach Jim Grobe leads a team into 2010 that severely lacks identity. Skylar Jones should likely replace Skinner, but Jones is a far better runner than passer, and his starting job is not in stone. The Deacons will do a lot of tinkering with the offense throughout the year, which isn’t good in a season where most of the ACC is loaded with experience.

Stretch: Three conference wins. It’s no secret the Atlantic Division is severely weaker than the Coastal, and for all we know, Clemson, NC State and Maryland could fall flat on their face. There is enough talent at the skill positions to give Wake a chance in several games, but a depleted offensive line and quarterback situation will make it a trying year in Winston-Salem.

ESPN’s Bruce Feldman Talks ACC Football

The landscape of sports journalism is littered with, more or less, nerds and geeks who have a lifelong passion for whatever sport they cover.

Not so for one distinguished character in the college football sector. Bruce Feldman was an art major in college, before a part-time job covering high school sports at the Miami Herald turned him onto journalism.

Fast-forward to 2010, and Feldman is a senior college football writer for ESPN the magazine and also has a daily blog on ESPN.com Insider.

He’s the author of two books, Cane Mutiny and Meat Market: Inside the Smashmouth World of College Football Recruiting. Over the course a week earlier this summer, I read Meat Market, which Feldman wrote after spending one year with all-inclusive access to the Ole Miss coaching staff in 2006 under recruiting guru Ed Orgeron.

Feldman basically took the Hubble Telescope and pointed it at the Rebels’ program, specifically the aspect of recruiting. What it showed was a coach who gave up an addiction to alcohol for an addiction to recruiting (and Red Bull Energy Drink), while also depicting just how time-consuming, complicated, and out-of-this-world stressful recruiting in the Deep South can be.

Feldman was kind enough to speak with ACC Mania one evening last week, and he had plenty to opine about the current environment within the conference.

ACC Maniac: Between Jacory Harris, Ryan Williams, Christian Ponder and Joshua Nesbitt, who has the best shot at the Heisman Trophy?

Feldman: I’d say it’s probably Ponder over Harris. I think Ponder is more consistent. Quarterbacks always have the best shot, especially when they can put up good passing numbers. I think Nesbitt is as tough a guy as there is in college football, but I’m not a guy on that bandwagon.

I’ve seen Miami this spring, and I was really impressed by how they look. I think Ponder has been more consistent, but at this point I’d say him, but it wouldn’t shock me if Harris were in the Heisman hunt.

ACC: Do you place any value in Heisman campaigns at places like Florida State?

Feldman: Those programs are so big. I think it would help if you were the Maryland quarterback, or another school that feels like more of a mid-major level.

I’ll use Carson Palmer as an example. Palmer had been a pretty inconsistent quarterback for most of his career. People knew his name, but until his senior year, he really didn’t get cranked up. He really didn’t get mentioned as a Heisman guy until really about Halloween (in 2002). It helped that guys said he had NFL size and an NFL arm. Having the NFL Draft guru approval certainly doesn’t hurt.

I have a feeling if Boise State beats Virginia Tech and Oregon State, people may talk about Kellen Moore. But there is going to be another side that’s going to ask “how good can this guy be?” He’ll be a free agent in the NFL one day, and whatever. I don’t think that helps a Heisman candidacy, but you can spend all the money you want on posters and pins and whatever, but if your guy doesn’t win big games it’s not going to matter.

If Ponder’s team wins the ACC and plays for the BCS title, people are going to find out about his story; they’ll know. He’ll be in enough big games where he’ll be talked about on College Gameday all the time and featured in magazines. People will constantly be talking about him, and why FSU – a program that had dropped – all of a sudden is back up and look who is the reason why.

There is no elaborate Heisman campaign that got everyone fired up about Mark Ingram. It was just about playing well in big games on national TV that does it.

You don’t beat out a guy because your Heisman campaign was better orchestrated than his. It might help you win a Butkus…it’s too scrutinized

ACC: You wrote a book on recruiting; who do you think is the best recruiter in the ACC?

Feldman: I’m tempted to say Eddie Gran, The running back coach at Florida State. He pulled a lot of kids out of south Florida when he was at Auburn and Tennessee and definitely did the same when he got to FSU. I think he is a really, really good recruiter. He’s a fairly low-key guy.

(UNC defensive line coach) John Blake has a big reputation as a recruiter, too, but I just don’t know. I think Graham might be a bit of an upset, but I’ll say him.

ACC: Virginia Tech just lost two huge recruits to UNC in Landon Turner and Marquise Williams. Tech needed Williams a lot more than UNC. Also, with Mike London raising UVA’s profile in-state, Tech is losing some ground in the state quickly. Williams was from North Carolina, but Turner was from Harrisonburg. Butch Davis is doing a good job.

Feldman: He’s a good evaluator. Let’s see how this NCAA probe may impact them. One of the little side cushions of the USC hit is that I wonder how much recruits will be gunshy when they hear “NCAA probe” than they were a while back.

ACC: What is the best stadium you’ve been to in the conference?

Feldman: I’m going to sound like I’m pandering, but I’m going to say Lane Stadium. I‘ve been there for a lot of games. I don’t like heavy metal or anything like that, but even when you just start hearing Enter Sandman that whole place rocks.

Every year, ESPN has a preseason seminar where everyone that works with college football comes in. One year they were playing the open to Virginia Tech-Miami in 2005. I remember just sitting there getting goosebumps. I remember being at that game. There is something there that is great.

It’s a really scenic part of the country. I’m kind of partial to that place. I have not been to Clemson for a game and I’ve heard great things about there. Otherwise I’ve been to pretty much every place in the ACC.

There is just something at Virginia Tech that I am in to.

ACC: Are you surprised that Tom O’Brien has not had more success at NC State?

Feldman: A little, given his track record. For as much as people take shots at the league, it’s not that easy to all of a sudden (improve). He has a good quarterback. Chuck Amato recruited pretty well, and he didn’t really win either. I’m not saying NC State is as tough as Duke to win at.

In a way, at Boston College you’re little more on an island and it has its charms to it. NC State is a little trickier spot. I’m not saying you can’t win there. I didn’t go in thinking oh he’s going to turn that place into the next Virginia Tech seasons. I expected 7-5 and the occasional 8-4 season. But I thought he’d be more along the lines of what Al Groh was able to do at Virginia.

I think people underestimate BC a little bit. They always have good offensive linemen. They also recruit New Jersey very well. New Jersey football is actually very good, and that is the Eagles’ lifeblood. As long as you have a really good line and mix in some other good players, you’re going to be good. It’s always been a well-coached program. They’ve never been bad. I don’t think you all of a sudden go to a different league and just fall apart.

ACC: Who is the best coach in the ACC?

Feldman: I think a lot of people would say Jim Grobe (at Wake Forest). Paul Johnson has done a lot at Georgia Tech. Beamer has obviously elevated Virginia Tech to an unthinkable level. I’d say it’s one of those three. I feel like Grobe probably gets the most out of the least, and Beamer takes it to another level. He’s had guys on his staff for a long time, there’s a lot of loyalty there.

ACC: Not a lot of people expected Paul Johnson’s offense to succeed in the ACC. I think a lot of his success predicates on how unique it is and how different it is to prepare for. When facing it, you have to completely change everything. Do you think Tech can maintain this, and do you think the triple option could show up at more schools in the future?

Feldman: I think they can maintain it. I don’t think it’s going to show up at so many other places, because coaches coach what they know. That is such a radical departure from places like the Big 12 where there are all these variations of the spread, but are pass-happy offenses.

Johnson is a good coach. Whatever system you run, it’s about how well you execute it. I just don’t think you’re all of a sudden going to see Norm Chow say, “I’m going to become an option guy,” or Mark Whipple or Jimbo Fisher either.

I think watching what Navy has done over the few years, what they’ve done is good. I just don’t think it’s going to be widespread, it’s not a part of other coaches’ DNA right now, offensively.

ACC: Who wins the ACC this year?

Feldman: There are four schools in the mix: Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina and Florida State. The more this investigation talk starts to bubble up, it doesn’t help UNC. You worry about chemistry.

I think Virginia Tech is a proven commodity, which definitely helps them.

FSU and Miami are both similar to me. Both programs have been really good, and now are trying to get rebuilt under new leadership. They have a lot of firepower. I think Miami has more talent on defense.

I feel like it comes down to Virginia Tech having to go to Miami this year. I think that game is going to determine the best team in the league.