Orange Bowl Reaction: Tigers, ACC embarrassed on national stage

This wasn’t supposed to happen, yet somehow it was.

Clemson was supposed to complete its best season in three decades with a win over West Virginia in the Orange Bowl. Instead, the Tigers let the Mountaineers score more points than any team in the history of bowl games. It will ultimately go down as one of the most embarrassing performances in school history, if it hasn’t already taken the cake. The worst part is, somehow I’m only half-surprised.

Perhaps no team in college football has been more inconsistent from one part of the season to another over the last decade than Clemson. In 2007, they started 4-0, and finished 9-4. In 2006, a 7-1 start fizzled into an 8-5 final record. In 2004, they stumbled to a 1-4 start before winning five of their final six games to finish 6-5. This season, a memorable 8-0 start brought national title aspirations along with it. A 2-4 finish, culminating in the debacle in Miami Wednesday night.

As predictable as the Tigers’ no-show was, nobody could have imagined it being that horrific. In the Mountaineers’ 49-point outburst in the first half, they averaged 7.4 yards per play. What was the biggest shock of all? West Virginia punted twice in that half.

West Virginia receiver Tavon Austin was the star of the night. He scored four touchdowns along with 280 all-purpose yards. He embarrassed the Tigers in every way short of walking over and spitting in Dabo Swinney’s face.

The last time we saw Clemson, they were polishing off a thorough beatdown of their own at the expense of Virginia Tech. Despite entering the game losers in three of their last four, the Tigers reverted back to their early-season dominance against the Hokies, and it looked liked they had straightened everything out. Um…guess not.

This is an extremely bitter pill to swallow for the ACC. Once again, the frontrunners of the league failed to come through under the brightest lights. A night after the Hokies gift-wrapped the Sugar Bowl for Michigan, Clemson choked so hard it coughed up both lungs. That makes the league 2-13 all-time in BCS bowl games. For comparison’s sake, West Virginia has won three BCS bowls on its own.

This is the type of performance that has historically cost defensive coordinators their job. Kevin Steele is going to face the fire in the wake of this embarrassment. Even throughout Clemson’s explosive start this season, the defense was always a liability. It wasn’t for lack of talent, either. With the likes of Andre Branch, Corico Hawkins and others, the Tigers had one of the most athletic defenses in the ACC. That didn’t stop them from allowing 29.3 points per game, 10th most in the league ahead of only Duke and Maryland. Most of the defensive lapses were masked by the prolific offensive displays that took place week after week under the direction of Chad Morris.

The hiring of Morris was a brilliant one, and it quite likely saved Swinney his job. Morris brought his spread offensive attack from Tulsa and turned untested sophomore Tajh Boyd into a first-team all-conference quarterback. Morris’ schemes fit perfectly with the Clemson’s personnel, which included speedsters Andre Ellington, DeAndre Hopkins and super-freshman Sammy Watkins. When healthy, the Tigers’ offense was a scoring factory.

Fans saw the benefits of shaking up the staff on one side of the ball this season. That will only make it harder on Swinney to keep Steele and the rest of the defensive staff around. The obvious breaking point will have been the Orange Bowl, but dig a little deeper and it’s clear that Steele’s unit underachieved all season.

Clemson is on the verge of becoming a great program again, but there are some gaping holes that must be covered before the Tigers can get there. It’s a shame it took getting their face spit on in front of a national audience for them to realize it.

ACC Bowl Schedule: Instant Analysis

The bowl pairings are out. Lots of intriguing matchups for the ACC. Here’s a quick overview of the games:

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Dec. 26, 5 pm Advocare V100 Independence Bowl North Carolina (7-5) vs. Missouri (7-5) ESPN2

• Good for the Tar Heels to reach the postseason after firing Butch Davis less than one week before the season started. Four of Missouri’s losses came against ranked teams. Should be a great game.

Dec. 27, 8 pm Belk Bowl NC State (7-5) vs. Louisville (7-5) ESPN

• The Wolfpack finished the season strong, highlighted by their 37-13 rout of Clemson at home. Louisville won five of six games to end the season and was co-champion of the Big East. Both programs could use a win in this game to springboard into next season.

Dec. 29, 5:30 pm Champs Sports Bowl Florida State (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4) ESPN

• Quite the face-off of traditional powers in this one. Florida State is the better than Notre Dame, but the ‘Noles were also better than Wake Forest and Virginia but still lost.

Dec. 30, 6:40 pm Music City Bowl Wake Forest (6-6) vs. Mississippi St. (6-6) ESPN

• Mississippi State played a brutal schedule. The Bulldogs are much better than a typical 6-6 team. Hard to see the Deacons winning this one. Unless Dan Mullen’s potential departure becomes a distraction…

Dec. 31, 2 pm Hyundai Sun Bowl Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Utah (7-5) CBS

• Bring your hard hat to this game. Two very physical teams will go at it in this game. Utah was wildly inconsistent this season. Slight edge to Georgia Tech in this game, but history is not on the Yellow Jackets’ side. They’ve yet to win a bowl game under Paul Johnson.

Dec. 31, 7:30 pm Chick-fil-A Bowl Virginia (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5) ESPN

• Mike London did a wonderful job guiding the Cavaliers to a premier bowl game. Outside of a three-point road win against South Carolina, Auburn has not another impressive performance this season. I like Virginia.

Jan. 3, 8:30 p.m. Allstate Sugar Bowl Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Michigan (9-3) ESPN

• Hokie fans, give yourself a pat on the back. It is your loyalty – and willingness to travel – that put gave your team a BCS at-large bid over more deserving teams like Boise State and Baylor. Michigan had a resurgent season under first-year coach Brady Hoke and boast one of the most explosive players in the country in quarterback Denard Robinson.

Jan. 4, 8 p.m. Discover Orange Bowl Clemson (10-3) vs. West Virginia (9-3) ESPN

• The Tigers put on a show in the ACC Championship Game. With their swagger back, it’s going to be tough for the Mountaineers to hang close. West Virginia won its last three games against mediocre competition by an average of 2.3 points just to make it here.

Clemson 38, Virginia Tech 10 — Recap & Analysis

It’s not often one team is favored in a game against another team it lost to by 20 points at home earlier that season. That’s the situation was Virginia Tech was in against Clemson in Saturday’s ACC Championship Game, and the Tigers didn’t take too kindly to such disrespect.

The Tigers looked nothing like the slumping squad it had become in the final month of the season in a 38-10 drubbing of the Hokies. The game broke wide open in the third quarter after it was tied at 10 at halftime.

So how did Clemson do it?

D-Line Domination

The tone was set on the Hokies’ first offensive play. Freshman linebacker Stephone Anthony came on a blitz and pressured Logan Thomas, forcing him to tuck the ball in the backfield. Thomas lost the ball before hitting the ground, and the Tigers recovered. Dwayne Allen scored three plays later to provide the Tigers’ only touchdown of the first half.

The Hokies had absolutely no room to run the ball. Clemson held Tech to a season-low 56 yards on the ground. David Wilson was visibly frustrated he wasn’t getting more touches (just 11 carries for the game), but the Tigers made it a priority to not allow Wilson to be a factor.

In what seems to be a recurring theme in Virginia Tech losses, the Hokies’ offensive line was manhandled from start to finish. Logan Thomas reverted back to his early-season form with accuracy struggles and questionable decision-making, but a lot of those problems stemmed from being under constant duress most of the night.

Hokies’ depleted secondary

All-American defensive back Jayron Hosley left the game in the first quarter with a neck stinger and did not return. His absence paved the way for Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins to have a field day against an extremely young secondary. The pair combined for 12 catches, 172 yards and a touchdown. Watkins’ touchdown came on a blown coverage when Cris Hill bit hard towards the sideline on a double-move, leaving the freshman sensation wide open for the score. Kyshoen Jarrett and Detrick Bonner, both freshmen, had to play significant roles against the Tigers’ spread attack. It was Clemson’s biggest advantage of the game.

Discipline

Virginia Tech was penalized a whopping nine times. Clemson was flagged five times, but Virginia Tech’s were far more costly. Case and point, Jarrett Boykin…four-year starter Jarrett Boykin…made an impressive 29-yard reception along the sideline on third down. He was subsequently flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct after spiking the ball and running his mouth for several seconds following the catch. The Hokies lost their composure after a couple calls did not go their way and as the deficit continued to grow. Instead of stopping the bleeding, the Hokies’ effort went down the tubes. There was no Tyrod Taylor, Andre smith or Darren Evans to rally the troops and keep playing hard. It was mildly reminiscent of last season’s second-half meltdown against Stanford in the Orange Bowl.

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It was hard to believe the Clemson team that took the field Saturday was the same group that had its doors blown off against NC State and South Carolina (not to mention beating Wake Forest on a last-second field goal). The Tigers were fired up for this game. I’m sure they heard all week about how hot Virginia Tech was and how poorly the Tigers had been playing. They felt disrespected as five-point underdogs to a Hokie team that they beat by 20 in Blacksburg.

From start to finish, Clemson was the best team in the ACC this season. They pulled it together when it mattered most. Credit Dabo Swinney for keeping his team focused and putting on a dominating performance on the league’s biggest stage. The Tigers aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.

I’m Baaaackkkk…plus an ACC Championship Game Preview

Guess who’s back?

It’s been a while, but the old dog can’t learn new tricks. I know you missed this poor little blog.

‘Cause it’d be so empty without me.

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Now, on to the important stuff. Virginia Tech and Clemson will descend upon Charlotte this Saturday to battle for the ACC Championship. The Tigers spanked the Hokies in Blacksburg on Oct. 1, but the teams couldn’t come into this game headed in more opposite directions.

Tech is fresh off its most impressive win of the season, a 38-0 drubbing over in-state rival Virginia. Clemson has lost two straight games by a combined score of 71-26. Its only win in the last four games came on a last-second field goal against Wake Forest at home.

Regardless, there’s no doubt the two teams that should be playing for the ACC championship will in fact do so. The same can not be said in the SEC (Alabama’s sitting at home) or the Pac-12 (USC is too).

Offensive Breakdown

Sammy Watkins was one of the best players in America until suffering a late-season shoulder injury

Under first-year coordinator Chad Morris, the Tigers’ offense was a machine during the team’s 8-0 start. During that span, the Tigers scored 40.6 points per game. Tajh Boyd was a resounding success in his first season as a starting quarterback. Sammy Watkins was generating Heisman Trophy buzz as a true freshman wide receiver. When Watkins went down with a shoulder injury late in the Wake Forest game, it put the brakes on the unit.

Even with the late-season slide, the Tigers’ second-worst offensive output of the season came against the Hokies. Boyd completed just 13 of 32 passes for 204 yards with one touchdown and interception apiece. The Tigers relied on tremendous field position and a handful of big plays to beat the Hokies, rather than sustaining long drives.

This is where it could get interesting Saturday. The Tigers are third in the ACC in third down conversions at 44.7 percent. Tech’s defense is tops in the league and ninth in the nation at stopping its opponents on third down, allowing a conversion just 31.5 percent of the time. Clemson must move the ball more consistently this time around, what with Virginia Tech’s offense playing much better now than it was two months ago.

Which brings us to the Hokies. Much has changed since that three-point output in Blacksburg. Those changes begin and and with Logan Thomas. A 15-of-27, zero-touchdown effort against the Tigers had some Tech fans (irrationally) questioning whether or not Thomas was fit for the starting job. He only responded with a 23-of-25 performance against Miami in which he ran for the game-winning touchdown in the final minute. Since the Clemson loss, Thomas has completed 68.4 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions while also rushing for nine touchdowns. The Hokies are 7-0 in those games.

David Wilson was named the ACC’s Player of the Year on Wednesday after leading the league with 1,595 yards. Between Wilson and Thomas, the Hokies have a dual-headed monster on the ground that is extremely tough to stop. Clemson is the only team to keep the Hokies’ running game out of the end zone this season.

With Thomas’ improvement in the passing game over the second half of the season, the Hokies’ offense has become one of the more efficient in the country.

To put it bluntly, the bottom has fallen out of the Tigers offense, while the Hokies are getting better by the week.

Advantage: Virginia Tech

Defensive Breakdown

James Gayle leads the Hokies with seven sacks this season

The fact that Bud Foster was left off the list of finalists for the Broyles Award (given to the nation’s top assistant coach) makes no sense. Despite losing four starters for the season and using nine different starting lineups in 12 games, Foster’s defense finished the season ranked seventh nationally in scoring defense (15.5 ppg) and 12th in total defense (302 ypg). Freshmen defensive linemen  Luther Maddy and Corey Marshall have filled in and outperformed expectations, as has Detrick Bonner in the secondary. The unit is full of sophomores and a few juniors, but is playing like a seasoned veteran group now.

The experience of Bonner will be tested against Clemson’s spread offense attack. The key for the Hokies is getting pressure with their front four, especially James Gayle and J.R. Collins, and not allow the Tigers’ receivers time to separate in the secondary. Clemson made most of its damage last time on deeper throws.

For Clemson, it’s been a long season defensively — especially lately. In its last six games, the Clemson defense has allowed 35.3 points per game. That’s…really bad. As a matter of fact, the Tigers fielded the second worst rushing defense in the ACC this season. That’s not the best news heading into a matchup against the two must difficult runners to bring down in the entire conference.

If Clemson is going to slow down the Hokies, it’s going to need to put the Hokies into second down and long situations. Tech’s offense is at its best when its able to dictate the flow of the game by gaining 4-5 yards or more on first down. If the Tigers can force Thomas into passing situations, they can pressure him into mistakes. Andre Branch racked up four sacks in the first matchup of these teams. Expect the Hokies to use a heavy dose of the running game to try and wear down the Tigers’ front four.

Advantage: Virginia Tech

Special Teams Breakdown

For the season, Virginia Tech has been the worst punting team in the ACC, averaging just 35.7 yards per boot. That is a deceiving figure thanks to wide receiver…er…punter Danny Coale. The senior started at punter last week at Virginia and only averaged, oh, 47.5 yards per punt. It’s more than likely he will start again on Saturday. Having a reliable option in that spot is a huge boost for the Hokies.

Dawson Zimmerman, meanwhile, is fourth in the ACC with a 42 yard average on his punts this season. His eight punts against Virginia Tech was a season high. He’s also a reliable option for the Tigers.

Sammy Watkins and David Wilson are both dynamite kick returners who can change the momentum of the game with one big run-back.

Cody Journell and Chandler Catanzaro are both solid field goal kickers. Journell leads the ACC by connecting on 81 percent of his field goals.

Advantage: Push

Intangibles

The Hokies are out for revenge this weekend. The sour taste of the 20-point drubbing on their home turf is still fresh in their minds, especially considering it may have cost them a shot at the national championship game. Clemson could not be playing much worse over the last month of the season, while the Hokies seem to be peaking at the right time. Both teams are very young, but the experience of playing in last year’s title game will only benefit Tech. The championship experience amongst the Tech coaching staff is also a critical asset.

Advantage: Virginia Tech

Prediction

If Clemson can get off to a fast start, we are going to be in for a great game. The Tigers are hurting for confidence at this point, and if they get behind by a couple scores in the early going, it could get ugly. Virginia Tech is on a mission right now. Even at worst, the Hokies won’t lay an egg like they did in the first match-up. These are two entirely different teams than the pair that met up in early October, and it will show on the field in Saturday.

Virginia Tech 31, Clemson 17

When is make-or-break time for ACC’s contenders?

There comes a time for every college football team that defines their season. It can be a brutal non-conference slate in September or a string of games against divisional rivals that will dictate where that team will finish in the standings.

The ACC has ramped up its non-conference schedule for 2010. Combining that with the fact that as many as eight teams have a legitimate shot at making it to Charlotte for the conference title game, nobody has an easy road to glory this year.

I’ve taken a look at each of those eight teams’ schedules and circled a three or four-game stretch for each as the key to their season. Some teams have more than one monstrous stretch, while a couple lucky teams managed to find their toughest games spread throughout the year.

Boston College

Sept. 25 – Virginia Tech

Oct. 2 – Notre Dame

Oct. 9 – at NC State

Oct. 16 – at FSU

After a couple yawn-inducing tune-ups against Weber State and Kent State, the Eagles hit the meat of their schedule quickly. Head coach Frank Spaziani better have his quarterback situation straightened out by then, because the Hokies’ defense will show no mercy on whoever’s in the pocket.

Notre Dame is a pivotal rivalry game that will have plenty riding upon it. The Irish will be looking to springboard themselves to a resurgent season, while the Eagles will be looking to carry some momentum into a huge two-game Atlantic Division stretch.

The road game against the Wolfpack is tricky, and I believe to be the single most important game on the Eagles’ schedule. Right now the Atlantic appears to be Florida State’s to lose, with Clemson, NC State and Boston College vying to be the Noles’ top challenger. Whoever loses that Oct. 9 game can probably kiss its conference hopes goodbye.

If Boston College escapes Raleigh with a win, they’ll need to pull off the upset in Tallahassee, a location where the Eagles have yet to lose since joining the ACC. We’ll know a lot about both teams by the time of that game, and it could either be a signature game in the division race, or just your average mid-October matchup.

Clemson

Sept. 18 – at Auburn

Oct. 2 – Miami

Oct. 9 – at North Carolina

The Tigers won’t truly be tested until the third week of the season, when they head on down to Jordan-Hare stadium for what will be a frenetic environment. It’s a damn good thing they’ve got a couple warm-up test, too, because coach Dabo Swinney will likely have to prep new quarterback Tajh Boyd during that time.

Auburn will be the first time we’ll find out what Clemson is really all about this year. If it is indeed Boyd under center, and he struggles, it could foreshadow a long, depressing autumn in Clemson. If he somehow leads Clemson to a huge road win, it could spark the Tigers on a good run.

Two weeks later, Miami pays Clemson a visit in a rematch of last year’s 40-37 overtime thriller that went the way of the Tigers. The Hurricanes haven’t forgotten that loss, so they will bring the fire to Clemson all night long if they can. The speed of Miami’s defense will make Auburn’s look like an electric football outfit.

Finally, the trip to North Carolina will make or break Clemson’s season. It’s feasible to think the Tigers could be on a two-game losing streak heading into this affair, making it imperative that Clemson doesn’t fall to 2-3 and 0-2 in the ACC. This game will either be to save a season on the brink, or to propel the Tigers at an Atlantic Division chase.

Florida State

Oct. 9 – at Miami

Oct. 16 – Boston College

Oct. 28 – at NC State (Thurs.)

I flirted with picking the opening month of the season for the Seminoles, who travel to Oklahoma a week before taking on BYU at home. However, those games are sandwiched between lock wins against Samford and Wake Forest, and I’ll be shocked if BYU comes into Tallahassee with a true freshman quarterback and beats Christian Ponder and Co.

I picked these three games because quite honestly, it looks like a trap for Jimbo Fisher’s team. The road game with Miami is obviously huge, but Boston College’s success at Florida State has already been noted, and the Wolfpack have a good enough offense to challenge the Seminoles to an old fashioned shootout – not to mention the advantage of a Thursday night home game.

The ‘Noles schedule is not too destructive. Their three toughest contests are in three separate months. While it’s good not to face a string of giants in a row, it could also lull the Seminoles and their rookie coaching staff to sleep, and if they do, you can bet the Eagles and the ‘Pack will be waiting.

Georgia Tech

Oct. 23 – at Clemson

Nov. 4 – at Virginia Tech (Thurs.)

Nov. 13 – Miami

As you’ll see below, the end of October and month of November is the deciding stretch of the season in the Coastal Division race. Of the top four contenders in the division, only Georgia Tech and North Carolina will have already met before October 23.

The Jackets need to make sure they don’t slip up on the road to Clemson, because they could conceivably make it to November with a perfect record intact.

Assuming they have zero or one loss in the ACC heading into November, the Jackets will control their own destiny entering consecutive games against the Hokies and Hurricanes.

Virginia Tech has not stopped the rushing attack of Georgia Tech since Paul Johnson took over, and the Hokies’ seemingly unflappable mentality on Thursday nights has wilted in recent years. That said, it’s going to be an uphill battle for Georgia Tech to stop the only team in the league with a better platoon of running backs than itself.

The Miami game will be a tough end to that stretch, and could possibly be for Tech’s conference title lives. The ‘Canes still have a game with Virginia Tech the following week, so a lot will be on the line November 13 as we try to figure out just who’s going to win the Coastal.

Miami

Sept. 11 – at Ohio State

Sept. 23 – at Pittsburgh (Thurs.)

Oct. 2 – at Clemson

Oct. 9 – Florida State

Remember this? Miami wishes it didn't.

Just like a year ago, Miami can waste not afford an early-season funk. The Ohio State and Pittsburgh games could both be the biggest of the week across the country. The Buckeyes are a consensus top-five team, while Pittsburgh boasts one of the best running backs in the country (sophomore Dion Lewis) and is the preseason favorite to win the Big East.

The ‘Canes started very strong a year ago, going 3-1 against four straight ranked opponents to begin the season, which head coach Randy Shannon will definitely remind his players about to give them confidence again. This is the most talented team Miami has had since it joined the ACC, but it hasn’t proved to be the most focused one.

Inconsistency plagued the Hurricanes in 2009, and usually one poor outing led to another or two. It’s not crazy to think Miami could start the year 1-3, but they could just the same go 4-0. I’d expect about the same results as last season, where a 3-1 start would have people anointing the ‘Canes as a national title darkhorse.

North Carolina

Sept. 4 – LSU (in Atlanta)

Sept. 18 – Georgia Tech

Sept. 25 – at Rutgers

The season opener against the Tigers is the most highly anticipated Tar Heel football game in more than a decade. With a win, it could also serve as the most beneficial. Butch Davis has his Tar Heels on the brink of a special run as a program, starting with this season and his NFL look-alike defense. The Heels should eat erratic LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson for lunch, the only problem is they might get something similar in return.

Carolina has no idea if T.J. Yates can run the show this year or not, and despite the fan’s urging to start the future now with super freshman Bryn Renner, a season opening game against an SEC team is not the best play to trot a rookie out under center.

With all of the hype surrounding this Carolina football team, it could quickly evaporate if the Heels don’t show up to play in September. Georgia Tech would love nothing more than to start the Heels’ ACC season on the wrong foot and derail the hopes of their fans very quickly.

Rutgers is the sleeper team in the Big East, and a tough team to beat on the road. Ever heard of Tom Savage? If you answered no, you’ll know him soon enough. The sophomore quarterback for the Scarlet Knights is a star in the making, and his best target is a sophomore standout, too. Mohamed Sanu has the potential to be an All-American sooner rather than later. They’ll put that star-studded UNC defense to the test.

North Carolina State

Sept. 16 – Cincinnati

Sept. 25 – at Georgia Tech

Oct. 2 – Virginia Tech

Oct. 9 – Boston College

The Wolfpack are by no means the favorite to make it to Charlotte in December, but they could also surprise some people if their defense shows marked improvement. If they can emerge as a threat for the Atlantic title, they’d have to somehow make it through this four-game gauntlet alive.

Cincinnati comes to Raleigh for a Thursday night affair, but the ‘Pack will be coming off a game just five days prior. That’s not a lot of time to prepare for Bearcats’ quarterback Zach Collaros and his high-octane attack. This is not the same Cincinnati team as the past couple of years, but the Bearcats still have enough juice in the tank to make that game a high-scoring battle.

Between the next three games, the Wolfpack have to win at least one and probably two of those to have any hope of contending in the Atlantic Division. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech pose a tough issue for a depleted NC State defense with their dominant rushing attacks. An upset between those two games is necessary.

Boston College visits Raleigh in a game that will likely eliminate one team from the Atlantic race.

It’s been a slower than expected rebuilding process for Tom O’Brien at NC State, but it does seem like he’s beginning to turn a corner. He’s running out of time, though, and this early season slate sets up for a potential catastrophe.

Virginia Tech

Nov. 4 – Georgia Tech (Thurs.)

Nov. 13 – at North Carolina

Nov. 20 – at Miami

A lot of folks are pointing to the Hokies’ season opener against Boise State at FedEx Field as the pivotal point in the year. It’s a fair assumption, given the magnitude of such early season showdowns the Hokies have played in recent memory. However, if Virginia Tech wants to play for a national title, it will have to manage the most difficult three-game stretch in the ACC this season.

The three teams in this stretch are arguably the best in the ACC, besides the Hokies. Georgia Tech comes to Blacksburg on a Thursday night, when the Hokies usually dominate. However, the visiting team has won two of the last three Thursday night games in Blacksburg. Beating the Yellow Jackets will be a difficult task to kick off the month of death for the Hokies.

North Carolina stole the game against the Hokies last season, thanks to a Ryan Williams fumble and Casey Barth last-second field goal. This year, the Hokies won’t forget the empty feeling of that night. Oddly enough, this year’s Tar Heel bunch strongly resembles the typical Virginia Tech outfit: shaky offense, speedy and ferocious defense. I like the Hokies in this game, but who knows what I’ll think when both teams have nine games under their belt.

The Miami game has a chance to be a de facto ACC semifinal game, if the two teams control their own conference destiny. It’s the Hurricanes’ final conference game, and the Hokies have downtrodden Virginia at home the following week. Neither team has a gentle path to this date, but on the outset it has the potential for a monumental showdown like the games from the early 2000’s in this series.

How the ACC fits into expansion

As the storm that is the conference expansion saga rages outside, the ACC has locked itself in the basement and is holding the doors shut with all its might.

The balls of conference expansion seem to be in Nebraska and Notre Dame's court

The league in large part has escaped the discussion of which teams will up and leave their current conference, but it won’t be that way forever.

Wide-ranging speculation predicts that a Notre Dame jump to the Big Ten would end the madness before it could really catch wind. I have a strong suspicion that’s not going to happen. Nebraska and Missouri have already alienated themselves from the Big 12, and thanks to Bob Stoops, Oklahoma seems ready to jump ship on the league as well.

The dominoes are wobbling violently and are on the very brink of toppling over altogether. Once they start to fall, not even Chip Brown will be able to know when they will stop.

Extreme Makeover: College Football Edition could possibly find its way into the realm of the ACC. Assuming nothing mind-boggling happens, the league can breathe somewhat easily that it won’t be reduced to rubble.

Any defections from the ACC would be a direct result of the SEC deciding to expand, which league commissioner Mike Slive has not ruled out entirely, but the chances of such a coup are slim.

If the league does make a pillage for four more teams, it would only come should the Big Ten and Pac-10 both grow to include 16 schools.

Should that happen, Texas would be in the Pac-10 (or the Sun-West Conference?), meaning any SEC expansion would not move westward. That puts Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Virginia Tech squarely in the SEC’s line of fire.

SEC commissioner Mike Slive doesn't appear to be in the hunt to add schools to his league...for now.

Any school the SEC chooses to seek would be almost purely for its football riches. If that’s the case, Florida State and Miami carry the most national branding power and tradition, but Virginia Tech has the best program in the present. Clemson and Georgia Tech are both strong, and would only make the league even more concentrated in the deep south.

The natural thought for who the SEC would look at first is Miami and Florida State, because of the tradition. However, that makes little sense for the league, which already boasts the premier program in the Sunshine State, and controls the market in Florida. Also, the Seminoles would probably dislike the idea of playing second fiddle to the Gators.

Florida State’s best chance of rebuilding a dominant program lies in staying put with the ACC. They are the least likely of the five schools to accept an invitation. However, if it looks like a chunk of the league is ready to bolt at any point, the ‘Noles would surely change their tune. As Nebraska, Notre Dame, and just about everyone else has found out, there’s more than one school holding a bomb, it’s just a matter of who detonates theirs first.

Miami would be more inclined to join the football kingdom that is the SEC, not having as strong ties to UF. Still, Miami’s financial situation is perfectly fine, and the revenue boost that would come by joining an 16-team SEC would be minute (reportedly between $1-2 more per year in TV revenue). The SEC should be more interested in Miami than FSU, because it would at least draw in the south Florida market, even if Miami’s fan base is all in all, pathetic.  The ‘Canes would be interested in jumping ship if a mass defection seemed imminent.

ESPN’s Mark Schlabach reported that Slive’s number one target could very well be Virginia Tech, because of the Washington D.C. fan base the Hokies boast. Tech just barely fits in geographically to the league. The distance from Blacksburg to Miami is 908 miles; from Blacksburg to Fayetteville, Ark. is 942.  There would be more trips of longer distance, but the SEC would assuredly have divisions that actually make geographical sense, unlike the Hokies’ current league.

Future SEC East showdown? Not without some help.

As tasty as the SEC sounds to a program like Virginia Tech, which is less than 25 years removed from being an independent school, the ACC is a perfect fit. There is nothing Tech loves more than winning conference titles in football, which would become few and far between in the SEC. The Hokies’ also have improved their basketball program thanks to the ACC, something Miami and Boston College can’t say. Even under a mass exodus, it’s conceivable that the Hokies say thanks, but no thanks, to Slive and his cohorts.

Clemson and Georgia Tech, as mentioned before, make the most sense as far as the physical landscape of the league. If two of the three “big boys” – Virginia Tech, FSU and Miami – happened to become intent on diving into the SEC’s waters, the Tigers and Yellow Jackets would be right there. That being said, the SEC isn’t going to put Clemson or Georgia Tech at the top of its wish list if it decides to expand, so the only way those two schools come along is if other schools go first.

There’s no telling where the renovation of the conference makeup will stop. If anyone from the Big 12 – namely Nebraska, or Missouri – leaves the conference, chaos will follow. The Big 12 will be in ruins, and other conferences will be jostling to scoop up the remnants of a once-proud league. If leagues start moving towards including 16 teams, that’s when the ACC can start to sweat, because the SEC may not sit so quietly.

Until then, the ACC will just brace itself with both hands firmly holding those storm doors shut.

Clemson knocks out Georgia Tech + Updated Tournament Standings

Clemson beat up Georgia Tech tonight, winning 9-3 for its first and only win of the 2010 ACC Tournament.

With the defeat, Georgia Tech is eliminated from championship contention.

That leaves Virginia Tech and North Carolina State in the hunt. The two teams will meet at 9:30, with the winner moving on to the title game tomorrow at 1 p.m. against Florida State.

Pool A

1. Florida State 2-1

2. Virginia 2-1*

3. Miami 1-2*

3. Boston College 1-2*

Pool B

1. Virginia Tech 2-0

2. NC State 1-1

3. Clemson 1-2*

3. Georgia Tech 1-2*

* Eliminated from championship game contention

NC State caps off day one with impressive upset of Clemson

Game one brought us some late-game thrills. Game two put us to sleep. Game three was action-packed from start to finish, as the NC State Wolfpack routed Clemson 13-8.

For much of the game, it was a see-saw-like tilt where one team would put a run or two on the board, only to be answered in the next half inning. Clemson led 4-3 after five innings.

Then began the unraveling of the Tigers.

Chris Schaeffer’s one-out double prompted Clemson coach Jack Leggett to remove pitcher Casey Harman from the game.

It was a questionable move, and a very defensive one at that. But Leggett decided to jump from the plane, and the parachute never deployed. Not even the emergency cord was effective.

Alex Frederick took Harman’s place on the mound for a shorter than expected stay. He threw just 19 pitches and allowed four runs on three hits. Parachute number one failed.

In came the emergency cord, which didn’t work any better. David Haselden entered with a 6-3 deficit, only to give up two hits and a walk, all while recording zero outs before he was pulled from the game.

Finally, the safety net from the bullpen, Kevin Brady, saved the Tigers from any further damage. He struck out Schaeffer, the same guy who started the onslaught, to end the inning with the ‘Pack ahead 8-3.

Clemson had no answer in the bottom of the sixth inning, and NC State tacked on two more runs for good measure in the seventh.

With the game virtually decided, Clemson tried to make a comeback, bringing the score to 10-8 thanks to a Will Lamb pinch-hit three-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning.

State responded with three runs of its own in the ninth, and Cory Mazzzoni finished off Clemson in the bottom of the ninth for the first upset victory of the tournament.

Clemson is now in a precarious position, needing to win its final two games of pool play to make the championship. It doesn’t help that those two games are against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.

NC State, meanwhile, proved that a strong offense can make up for a suspect defense. They are in the perfect pool – a group of teams built for shootouts rather than pitcher’s duels – like themselves. As long as the offense produces at a level similar to Wednesday night’s, the Wolfpack has as good a shot as anyone to be playing on Sunday.

ACC Baseball Tournament Preview

The ACC Baseball Tournament gets under way Wednesday at noon with Virginia vs. Boston College

It’s finally here!

The ACC Baseball Tournament is ready to go Wednesday, where as many as six teams have a legitimate shot at winning the title.

Last season, Virginia came from the sixth seed to win the conference, and turned that into a College World Series berth.

The league is as strong as it’s ever been. Clemson, which is the top seed in Division B, is the lowest ranked of the six ACC teams in Baseball America’s Top 25.

It’s going to be hard to confidently project the results of the week, but I’m sure as hell gonna try.

Division A

#1 Virginia

The Cavaliers virtually went wire-to-wire during the ACC season as the best team in the conference. They are ranked first in the country by Baseball America and are a lock to be one of eight top seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

They open the tournament Wednesday at noon against eighth seed Boston College. The Cavaliers swept the Eagles during the regular season.

UVA coach –and ACC Coach of the Year – Brian O’Connor said he would start Cody Winiarski on the mound in this game. Winiarski went 5-0 with a 4.23 ERA this season.

The Cavaliers will then face Florida State at 4 p.m. Thursday. The two teams met in the first conference series of the season in early March, with Virginia taking two of three from the Seminoles.

Phil Gosselin is the star of Virginia’s offense. He was named first team All-ACC, the only position player on the Cavs’ roster to earn such honors. Gosselin was very impressive, especially towards the end of the regular season. He batted .379 with seven home runs, 21 doubles and 49 RBI. He also stole 15 bases.

Danny Hultzen will rest the first two games, and unless Virginia is in a must-win situation against Miami on Saturday, he will pitch in the championship game. The ACC Pitcher of the Year finished with a 2.08 ERA – nearly a full point better than the next best pitcher in the league.

#4 Miami

The Hurricanes are a team carried by a small group of players. The most important player for Miami is catcher Yasmani Grandal. He earned ACC Player of the Year honors by leading the league with a .428 batting average, 13 home runs and 54 RBI. Grandal is far and away the most complete hitter in the conference.

Miami has a lot to play for this weekend. They are slated to host an NCAA Regional, according to ESPN, but that would evade the ‘Canes grasp with a poor showing in Greensboro.

They could surely use that home-field advantage. They had an 18-game home winning streak snapped in the second game of their series with Virginia last week.

It’s going to be a tough opener for the ‘Canes. Freshman pitcher Chris Whaley will make his second career start against the Seminoles on Wednesday. In 26 appearances this year, Whaley is 4-1 with a 4.58 ERA. He has plenty of innings of worked, but putting him up against Florida State with so much on the line is risky.

Miami doesn’t have much choice, though. Eric Erickson, a usual starter, will miss the tournament with an elbow injury.

Chris Hernandez, a first team all-conference pitcher, will start against Boston College on Thursday. That should be enough for Miami to feel comfortable about that game. Which leaves the all-important game Saturday against Virginia.

Miami lost the series to Virginia last week, and the one game it won was in extra innings. For a team that doesn’t play nearly as well away from home, it will need a magical performance to emerge from the division on top.

#5 Florida State

The Seminoles have to be careful not to let a late-season slide carry over into Greensboro. A week ago, Florida State expected to be the top seed in Division B as champions of the Atlantic Division. Instead, the ‘Noles went to Clemson and got whipped by the Tigers.

Three straight losses relegated Florida State to this division, where two of the three teams will be top seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

That being said, the Seminoles went 5-4 during the regular season against the other teams in the division. They lost twice to Virginia, but took two of three from Miami and Boston College.

However, Miami led in 25 of the 27 innings against Florida State this year, and the Hurricanes are hungry to prove their worth. It’s going to be a grind-it-out kind of weekend for the Seminoles.

Florida State bats .296 as a team, virtually the same as Boston College and Miami, who bat .295 each. Virginia is light years ahead of all three at .335.

The Seminoles have a good chance to beat Miami using a young pitcher. However, the ‘Noles pitching staff posted a horrid 13.09 ERA against Clemson, killing any momentum the team could have had.

Boston College could be tricky, because the Eagles are on the NCAA bubble (I thought I wouldn’t have to use that word for 10 more months dammit!).

If the Seminoles can slide past Miami on Wednesday, they have a chance to make the finals. If they have a poor showing for the fourth straight game, count them out.

#8 Boston College

As mentioned before, the Eagles will be fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives this week. ESPN pegs them as one of the final five at-large teams that will make the field.

The Eagles went 1-8 against the other teams in the division, not a convincing statistic.

They are only in the tournament after the third tiebreaker ruled them ahead of North Carolina for the final seed in the tournament.

The Eagles’ team ERA is the second worst in the league at 6.58. Thankfully for them, they avoided the more offensively potent division which includes Georgia Tech and Clemson, but there is still little proof their pitching staff can contain the likes of Virginia, Miami and Florida State.

Not only is the defense suspect, but the Eagles’ bats are in the bottom half of the league in nearly every significant category. They scored the least amount of runs of any team in the tournament, which kind of makes you wonder how they made it this far.

Off the hate train now, but at best the Eagles will win one game this weekend, and that’s if Florida State is in the dumps.

DIVISION B

#2 Clemson

There’s no better feeling in sports than to be red-hot heading into the postseason. That’s exactly what the Tigers are, coming off an emotional sweep of Florida State at home to clinch the Atlantic Division.

On a side note, Clemson became the first school in the expansion era of the ACC to win its division in both football and baseball.

While we’re on the subject of the two sports, Kyle Parker is not only the leader on the gridiron, but on the diamond as well.

Parker tied for the conference lead with 18 home runs. He also batted at a .373 clip and drove in 56 runs, which was third on the team.

Jeff Schaus led the league with 71 RBI, and John Hinson was seventh with 60.

Needless to say, the Tigers can score runs in bunches.

They avoid facing Deck McGuire, the Georgia Tech ace, and will face Matthew Price, the third best starter for Virginia Tech.

I really like Clemson right now. They scored the third most runs in the league, and they are playing very well. This division is chock full of offensive prowess, and Clemson is well equipped for some slugfests.

If it comes down to pitching, Clemson is in a bit of trouble. The Tigers’ staff is only average, and when they faced Georgia Tech earlier this year, the Jackets scored 23 runs in three games, all won by Tech.

Expect the Tigers to be in some high-scoring affairs every day.

#3 Georgia Tech

Talent-wise, Georgia Tech has the best chance outside of Virginia to win this tournament. The Jackets are absolutely loaded offensively and have a couple knockout pitchers on their side.

The problem with Tech is inconsistency.

The Yellow Jackets dropped a series at home to Virginia Tech during the regular season and did the same at North Carolina State, but they did sweep Clemson.

You just never know which Georgia Tech ball club will show up. The Yellow Jackets have won nine of their last 11 games, though.

Tony Plagman is a monster at first base. He tied with Parker for the league lead in home rusn, and bats clean-up for a lineup that produced 111 home runs in 55 games.

That’s a two-home run per game average. They won’t have any trouble getting people across the plate.

Deck McGuire is going to take the mound in game one on Thursday night against Virginia Tech. McGuire is rated as the best pro prospect in the ACC, and has the best control of perhaps any pitcher in the country.

If Georgia Tech puts together a solid weekend of baseball, they should expect to be playing on Sunday. That’s a big if.

#6 Virginia Tech

The Hokies are the only team coming into the tournament from this division not on a hot streak. Tech dropped its last four games to end the season, including a sweep at the hands of North Carolina.

To be fair, the Heels were playing for their postseason lives, and are much more talented than just about any team sitting at home already.

Still, there are several question marks surrounding the Hokies entering Greensboro.

Jesse Hahn, the usual Sunday starting pitcher, has struggled since returning from an elbow injury. He has started in two of the last four losses for Tech, and coach Pete Hughes wants to rest him until a potential championship game appearance.

Hahn will be ready to pitch Saturday against N.C. State if it is necessary.

Tech has a strong lineup, fitting in well with the rest of the division. The pitching staff is also fairly deep, as noted by strong play in the month without Hahn.

There is probably not a more balanced team in the league in terms of good hitting and good pitching, with the exception of Virginia.

Austin Wates and Steve Domecus are the leaders on offense. They are both near the top of the conference in terms of batting average and runs batted in.

The Hokies might have the best bench of any team in the league, which could prove vital in tight ball games when situational hitting is crucial.

The Hokies were swept by Clemson early in the year, but did win the series against Georgia Tech in Atlanta.

The injury to Hahn is tough, but the Hokies’ two best pitchers left will face Georgia Tech and Clemson. While they could win both of those, a realistic scenario is a split of those two games and a chance to clinch the division against the Wolfpack on Saturday night.

#7 North Carolina State

Despite being seeded low, the Wolfpack scored more runs than anyone else in the ACC this year with 532. The number wouldn’t have been as high had they not slammed LaSalle for 65 runs in three games to open the season.

In all seriousness, though, they have a good enough offense to make a run this week.

They were the only team to beat Virginia in a series this season, winning 6-5 in 11 innings on Friday, then 7-6 on Sunday, April 4 in the rubber match.

They also took two of three from Georgia Tech late in the year, which was the beginning of a stretch where the ‘Pack won 10 of 13 games to end the regular season.

Just like Georgia Tech and Clemson, the Wolfpack are playing well at the right time.

Outfielder Drew Poulk is the offensive star for a powerful lineup. He batted .367 on the year with 13 home runs and 67 RBI.

The Wolfpack have the look of a team that could surprise some people this weekend, as they have on several occasions this season. They play their best baseball against their toughest competition, which means the rest of their division will be in for a battle.

If they can get consistent pitching for their second and third starters, there’s no reason the Wolfpack can’t sneak up and win a wide-open division.

Here are my predictions for how the weekend will unfold:

DIV. A	UVA	MIAMI	FSU	BC	Total
UVA		Virginia	Virginia	Virginia	3-0
MIAMI	Virginia		Florida St.	Miami	1-2
FSU	Virginia	Florida St.		Florida St	2-1
BC	Virginia	Miami	Florida St.		0-3
Total	3-0	1-2	2-1	0-3

DIV. B	CLEM	GT	VT	NC ST	Total
CLEM.		Clemson	Va. Tech	Clemson	2-1
GT	Clemson		Ga. Tech	NC State	1-2
VT	Va Tech	Ga Tech		Va Tech	2-1
NC ST	Clemson	NC State	Va Tech		1-2
Total	2-1	1-2	2-1	1-2

Finals: VIRGINIA over Virginia Tech

Crucial games across the board in baseball’s final weekend

It all comes down to this.

The ACC baseball regular season concludes on Saturday, and nobody really knows much about how things are going to end up.

No team has locked up a certain position for next week’s conference tournament, and nine teams are still eligible for the final eight spots.

The top two teams in the standings are going to battle, and two of the three teams that have already been eliminated from postseason play are meeting up, meaning that eight of the nine teams still with a chance to make the tournament are playing each other.

That should make for an interesting weekend.

Virginia (43-9, 21-6) at Miami (38-13, 19-8)

Thursday’s probable starters – UVA: Danny Hultzen (7-1, 1.98 ERA); Miami: Jason Santana (5-3, 5.86 ERA)

Friday’s probable starters – UVA: Robert Morey (8-2, 3.30 ERA); Miami: Chris Hernandez (8-2, 3.04 ERA)

Saturday’s probable staters – UVA: Cody Winiarski (5-0, 4.30 ERA); Miami: Eric Erickson (4-1, 2.52 ERA)

The Cavaliers enter Miami needing only one victory to clinch the regular season conference championship. This series pits the teams with the two best earned run averages in the league. Hultzen is the most dominant pitcher the conference has to offer, and Morey is coming off a complete game three-h

itter against North Carolina last weekend. The Cavaliers, who are ranked No. 1 in the country according to Baseball America, have a great offense top-to-bottom, led by second baseman Phil Gosselin. Gosselin is second in the league with a. 386 batting average; he has also stolen 15 bases.

There’s a very good chance Virginia will take at least one game in this series, despite playing in a tough environment on the road. The Miami fans are notoriously ruthless, but that won’t bother the Cavs, who are one of the favorites to win the national championship.

Virginia Tech (36-16, 16-11) at North Carolina (33-20, 11-16)

Thursday’s probables – VT: Justin Wright (7-3, 3.14 ERA); UNC: Matt Harvey (6-3, 2.72 ERA)

Friday’s probables – VT: Matthew Price (7-3, 4.74 ERA); UNC: Chris Munnelly (2-2, 5.06 ERA)

Saturday’s probables – VT: Jesse Hahn (5-3, 3.06 ERA); UNC: Patrick Johnson (5-3, 3.53 ERA)

This series has the most impact of any taking place this weekend in the conference. North Carolina is one game behind NC State for the eighth and final spot in the conference tournament, while Virginia Tech has a chance to move up to as high as third place in the league by Saturday.

The Tar Heels’ biggest concern is the fact that the Wolfpack are playing Duke, one of the three teams with no shot at the conference tournament. The ‘Pack likely won’t lose that series, so the Heels need a sweep of the Hokies realistically to have a chance at the postseason.

Virginia Tech on the other hand, trails Miami and Georgia Tech by three games in the standings. The Hurricanes could possibly be swept by Virginia (though not likely if Virginia clinches the conference by winning the first or second game). Georgia Tech is on the road against Boston College, a team the Hokies swept at the end of April. Right on the Hokies’ heels is Clemson, which is one game back from fifth place. If Tech falters in Chapel Hill, the Tigers could jump up to fifth place – they earn the tiebreaker between the Hokies.

North Carolina is coming off an emotional series at Virginia. The Cavaliers swept the Heels in three low-scoring affairs. Two of those games ended in walk-off hits. Harvey pitches with great command and is very good at getting batters out. He can get himself out of trouble and make it look easy.

Tech catcher Steve Domecus was named co-player of the week in the ACC this past weekend for his play against Duke. Domecus had at least three hits in every game against the Blue Devils, including four RBI in an 18-8 win on Saturday.

This series is crucial to both teams entering Thursday, and depending on how other games around the league turn out, it could change the landscape of this matchup as the weekend unfolds.

Other notable games

Georgia Tech (42-10, 19-8) at Boston College (28-24, 13-14)

There’s one statistic that speaks volumes about how explosive the Georgia Tech offense is. The Yellow Jackets have hit more home runs this season than Duke, North Carolina and Maryland combined. Tech is one of the more up-and-down teams in the league, and that inconsistency will surely plague them if it carries over into the postseason. However, Boston College’s pitching is less than stellar, and it’s hard to imagine them containing the powerful Tech lineup.

Player to watch: Deck McGuire, SP Georgia Tech

McGuire is the Yellow Jackets’ ace, with a 7-3 record and a 2.91 ERA. He is a projected first-round pick in next month’s MLB draft. When he’s on the mound, it’s hard to beat Georgia Tech. He was on the hill last weekend when Tech thumped Miami 14-3.

If Miami can sweep Virginia and Tech takes all three from Boston College, the Jackets would earn the top seed in the conference tournament. A strong start to the series would be ideal, and McGuire usually does a good job of that.

Florida State (39-13, 18-9) at Clemson (34-19, 15-12)

The top two teams in the Atlantic Division (which literally means nothing) meet up with Clemson needing a sweep to take the top seed in Division B for next week’s tournament.

Both teams are right in the middle of the league in terms of offense, and Florida State has better pitching. The Seminoles are a much better team at home than on the road, and Clemson is not an easy place to get road wins.

Keep an eye on the Tigers’ Kyle Parker, who is tied for the league lead with 18 home runs. He is the heart of the Clemson lineup, and the most powerful hitter in the ACC. How he finishes the season this week and in the postseason will go a long way in determining his pro baseball draft status, which will ultimately determine whether he returns to the football field next fall.

It’s going to be a great weekend to follow ACC baseball, and it’s very possible the standings will look nothing on Saturday night like they do Thursday morning. Hopefully a weekend of exciting baseball will be a precursor to next week in Greensboro.