The Four Tiers of the ACC
Opportunity has passed the ACC by once again. With league play starting up Saturday, there have been more debilitating losses than eye-opening wins so far. One-third of the conference is ranked outsides the RPI’s top 100, and just four teams are in the top 50 (meanwhile, the Big East has four schools in the top six).
Why is a league that once prided itself on being basketball royalty suddenly on the brink of battling the CAA and Atlantic 10 for NCAA Tournament bids? Coaching turnover for one. Virginia’s Tony Bennett is the fifth-longest tenured coach in the ACC — in just his third year. The mass exodus of head coaches following the past two seasons has placed several former prominent programs such as Maryland, Georgia Tech, NC State and Wake Forest in rebuilding mode.
Times are hard, even at the top. Duke hit the road on Wednesday to face Temple, and the Owls led virtually the entire game in a 78-73 upset. North Carolina is 13-2, but is just 2-2 against the RPI top 50. While nobody doubts the Tar Heels’ talent, there hasn’t been a true marquee win by anyone in the ACC this season.
If you’ve watched any of ESPN’s broadcasts of ACC games this year, you’ve noticed they typically include whichever analyst’s breakdown of the league into three “tiers.” I don’t think I’ve seen one that I’ve agreed with yet. So, as a primer for ACC play, I’ll give my own groupings that hopefully make sense to all. Following my tier rankings, I project every team’s conference record, so make sure to check that out as well.
(League power ranking in parentheses)
Tier 1: NCAA Tournament Locks
(1) North Carolina, (2) Duke
Surprise, surprise. The Tar Heels and Blue Devils are on a crash course to meet in the ACC Championship Game yet again. The biggest point of separation between these two and the rest of the league is frontcourt play.
For North Carolina, no team in America boasts an interior as long and athletic as John Henson and Tyler Zeller. Opponents take the ball into the paint at their own risk against the Heels. North Carolina has defended 376 three-pointers this season, the third highest total in the country. Nobody takes it inside against the Tar Heels. John Henson leads the ACC with 3.2 blocks per game.
Duke’s front line of Mason and Miles Plumlee, along with Ryan Kelly, is a formidable group in its own right. The Plumlees have been inconsistent at times, but have played well of late. They combined for 33 points and 17 rebounds in Duke’s loss to Temple.
Both UNC and Duke should sleep their way through eight or nine games in ACC play. They’ll need to barely rise from their slumber in another three or four. They’ll get everyone’s best shot as always, but the bottom third of the league is so miserable that it won’t be much of a challenge for either team.
NCAA Tournament Hopefuls
(3) Virginia, (4) Virginia Tech, (5) NC State, (6) Miami, (7) Florida State
The Cavaliers are off to their best start in recent memory and are in the driver’s seat for the ACC’s third NCAA bid. Even the ‘Hoos success hasn’t come without turmoil, though. Once-prized recruit KT Harrell transferred in mid-December, as did the seldom used James Johnson. Among their last four games, the Cavaliers squeaked by winless Towson and lowly Seattle to prove their vulnerability. They are the still best defensive team in the league, allowing only 50.4 points per game (second nationally).
Virginia Tech seems destined for a fifth straight season on the bubble. The Hokies have failed to win any of its games against RPI-top 50 opponents, which will undoubtedly hurt them come Selection Sunday. Erick Green has been steady at point guard, but it’s an influx of youth is what has kept Virginia Tech afloat in the aftermath of Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen’s departure. Highly Dorian Finney-Smithh has struggled offensively but leads the team with 8.2 rebounds per game. Robert Brown has been a lightning rod on the wing, mainly because of his outside shooting and highly active defense. Marquis Rankin has been a solid backup for Green, while CJ Barksdale provides quality depth in the post that Tech has not been accustomed to in a long time.
NC State has shown flashes of promise in the early season under first-year coach Mark Gottfried. The Wolfpack have five players averaging double-figure points, but a lack of depth will test this team through the grind of the conference schedule. C.J. Leslie is enjoying a strong sophomore season after a disappointing rookie campaign. He’s scoring 13 points and hauling in more than six rebounds per game. The ‘Pack only played one true road game through their 11-4 start, so they may struggle in some of the tougher ACC road environments in the early going.
Nobody is paying attention to Miami, but the Hurricanes are finally at full strength and are a dynamic club that matches up better with Duke and North Carolina than anyone else in the league. DeQuan Jones regained his eligibility mid-season in the wake of the Nevin Shapiro schedule, and seems caught up to speed in new coach Jim Larranaga’s system. Dominant big man Reggie Johnson returned from an off-season knee injury, and the ‘Canes have averaged 88 points during their four-game win streak since his return. Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant form one of the toughest backcourts in the country, giving Miami a balanced offensive attack.
In a season drenched in disappointment, Florida State is the league’s posterchild of it all. Fresh off a Sweet 16 appearance last March, the Seminoles had high hopes for a similarly strong season. Instead, the Seminoles might want to put out an APB for any semblance of offensive prowess. They are 10th in the ACC in offensive efficiency, 11th in three-point shooting and fifth in scoring. That’s not going to get it done against Carolina and Duke, which is who Florida State compared itself to in the preseason. Leonard Hamilton has been around the block a time or two, though, and my bet is Florida State will finish the season stronger than it started it.
Tier 3: NCAA Longshots
(8) Wake Forest, (9) Maryland, (10) Clemson
After last season’s debacle, the Demon Deacons have already won more games than they did all of last season. Travis McKie is one of the best players America’s never heard of. He’s averaging a shade under 18 points and six rebounds per game. C.J. Harris has also been a focal point of the Deacs’ mild resurgence with 19 points per game on 54 percent shooting. Depth is a major issue here, as Jeff Bzdelik was left with a mangled roster last year following Dino Gaudio’s surprising ouster. Can Wake Forest make the dance? Probably not, but I like the pieces on this team and they are hungry to erase the memory of of 2010-11 from everyone’s minds.
Don’t let Maryland’s seven-game win streak fool you. The average RPI of the Terps’ foes in that stretch is 212. Their average margin of victory during the streak was a mere 7.14, and that includes an 11-point overtime win against Albany at home. Terrell Stoglin has been terrific thus far and he leads the ACC with 21.1 points per game. Sean Mosley is second on the team with 10.2 points per game, as he hits the home stretch of what has been a disappointing career. Part of me wants to call off the dogs on Maryland, but a 10-win ACC season — albeit a miraculous one — is not entirely impossible. There are too many question marks on the teams ahead of them on this list to give the Terps no shot.
I have no rational explanation for why Clemson is so bad. I thought this team would take a step forward in Brad Brownell’s second season, but their inability to score and extended lapses of focus on the defensive end make me wonder if Brownell has completely lost this team. There’s more than enough talent to contend for an NCAA bid, but it’s not showing on the court this season. The best thing Clemson fans can hope for is the Tigers treat the ACC slate as an entirely new season and finally live up to their potential. A win at home on Saturday against Florida State is almost a must at this point.
Tier 4: No chance
(11) Georgia Tech, (12) Boston College
The odds these two clubs combine for more than five ACC wins is roughly equivalent to the chances either one of these teams offers me a scholarship. Boston College is downright pathetic. The Eagles have lost to Holy Cross, UMass, St. Louis, Penn State, Boston, Harvard (for the fourth straight year, but not a bad loss this time around for once), and Rhode Island. They are 262nd in the RPI, which is about three times as high as the typical ACC cellar-dwellers reside. It’s an extremely young collection of players that will take a beating against virtually every other team in the league.
Except for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets enter league play on a three-game losing streak, which consisted of defeats to Mercer, Fordham and a 25-point blowout to Alabama. Their leading scorer, Glen Rice, Jr. averages only 12 points per game. They are 11th in the league in offensive efficiency despite facing an extremely weak out-of-conference schedule. New coach Brian Gregory also has a whale of a job in front of him to clean up the mess that Paul Hewitt left behind. Gregory will be much more meticulous in his job building the program than Hewitt ever was. Thenear future is extremely dim for Tech, but if the fan base can be patient, there is a light at the end of this long tunnel.
PROJECTED RECORDS
1. North Carolina 14-2*
2. Duke 13-3*
3. Virginia 11-5*
T-4. Miami 10-6*
T-4. Virginia Tech 10-6^
T-6. NC State 9-7^
T-6. Florida State 9-7^
8. Wake Forest 6-10
T-8. Clemson 6-10
10. Maryland 5-11
11. Georgia Tech 2-14
12. Boston College 1-15
*NCAA at-large
^Will need strong ACC Tournament showing for at-large bid







