Can NC State end ACC Final Four Drought?

Since 1979, the ACC has never failed to put a team in the Final Four in three consecutive seasons. In 2012-13, the league will be in danger of doing just that. Following Duke’s national title run in 2010, the last two Final Fours have been void of any team from the league that typically dominates the event.

North Carolina was supposed to end the league’s one-year hiatus this season until Kendall Marshall crashed to the ground in Greensboro and broke his wrist. The Tar Heels bowed out in the Elite Eight for the second straight year. Duke had a puncher’s chance at making it to New Orleans when the dance began, but a collapse for the ages against 15th-seeded Lehigh ended those dreams.

Both teams have already suffered major defections, either through graduation or early entry into the NBA Draft. The Tar Heels will lose 71 percent of their scoring from 2011-12 thanks to the losses of Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall. To no one’s surprise, Blue Devils’ freshman Austin Rivers’ stay in Durham lasted just one year. Mason Plumlee is still mulling his options with one year of eligibility remaining, while older brother Miles has exhausted all four years of his.

The two traditional powerhouses of the league will still be forces to contend with next season, but if there was ever a year for another challenger to rise up and seize the title from the Heels’ and Devils’ clutches, it is now.

There just so happens to be one legitimate contender whose last known whereabouts were in St. Louis, losing by three to the eventual national runners-up. NC State came on strong at season’s end to barely sneak into the NCAA Tournament. The Wolfpack were not the prototype for an 11-seed, however. With future bona fide pros in C.J. Leslie and Lorenzo Brown, supported by a group of versatile athletes who maximized their value as role players, the Wolfpack could have made a run to the national championship game that would have shocked no one who’d watched them play since late February.

The best part for Wolfpack fans is they will be even better next year.

The first order of business for Mark Gottfried will be convincing Leslie to return to school for his junior season. The 6-8 sophomore finally tapped into his vast potential in the second half of the season, averaging better than 17 points and nine rebounds per game over his final 12 contests. He was the best player on the court in all three ACC Tournament games, including the Wolfpack’s crushing 69-67 loss to North Carolina in the semifinals.

However, for all of the promise Leslie showed at the end of this season, he’s still projected as a late first-round pick at best. He’s undersized to play power forward in the NBA, but lacks the perimeter game offensively to play the 3. Commitment issues still linger as well. The most noticeable difference in his game during the season-ending hot streak was a higher level of intensity more than anything. Now, some would argue that this flipping of the switch was a direct result of Leslie finally smelling the fruits of the NBA and going bat-shit crazy to prove to pro scouts he is worth their trouble. If that’s the case, Leslie may already be out the door and this is a moot point. The people I’ve talk to who follow the Wolfpack say Leslie is leaning towards coming back. We’ll have to wait and see.

If Leslie does return, the Wolfpack are immediately the favorites to win the ACC and a legitimate national title contender. Brown emerged as the best point guard in the ACC this season who didn’t wear number five and play for North Carolina. He averaged 12.7 points, 6.3 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game this season. He and Leslie would be on the short list for ACC Player of the Year if both return to school.

The only significant loss from this year’s team will be small forward C.J. Williams, who averaged 10.6 points and 3.8 rebounds this season. Williams was a gritty player and added to a very deep front line at Gottfried’s disposal.

Oh, by the way, NC State has a consensus top-five recruiting class on the way in 2012. Tyler Lewis is a heady point guard that will spell Brown with quality minutes off the bench. Or better yet, Gottfried could keep Brown on the floor when Lewis enters the game by sliding Brown to his old position at shooting guard. T.J. Warren is a poor man’s Harrison Barnes if you will; he’s an intelligent player with strong bloodlines (his father played at NC State), won’t blow you away with athleticism, but uses his NBA-ready body well. Warren won’t be a star right out of the gate, but the top-50 recruit will add quality depth to this Wolfpack squad next year.

The gem of the incoming class is 6-4 scoring machine Rodney Purvis. The hometown hero stayed in Raleigh to play for Gottfried and will be an instant impact player for the ‘Pack. He has first-class quickness and explosiveness for a shooting guard, not to mention a deadly mid-range jumper. There’s a strong chance he will start from day one next winter.

Here’s a look at the Wolfpack’s potential depth chart next season:

PG – Lorenzo Brown

SG – Rodney Purvis

SF – Scott Wood

PF – C.J. Leslie

C – Richard Howell

BENCH

F – DeShawn Painter

F – TJ Warren

G – Tyler Lewis

F – Tyler Harris

–

Wolfpack faithful are holding their breath in anticipation of Leslie’s announcement regarding the draft, and for good reason. Without Leslie, State could still challenge for the conference crown, but the season will follow a more familiar script with Carolina and Duke working to stave off lesser foes.

As badly as NC State needs Leslie back, the league as a whole needs him just as much. Neither the Tar Heels nor the Blue Devils seem poised for a Final Four run in 2013. Unless NC State carries the banner for the conference next year as a top-10 club, it’s going to be another down year in the ACC.

Florida State wins ACC Tournament – Instant Analysis

That’s a wrap from Atlanta, where Florida State just became the first team since 2004 not named North Carolina or Duke to win the ACC tournament. It was a thrilling end to an exciting tournament, and we can only hope is a telling foreshadowing of the weeks to come in college basketball.

FLORIDA STATE 85, NORTH CAROLINA 82

How it happened:
Florida State jumped on Carolina from the start. The Seminoles scored a season-high 49 first half points, including 15 from Michael Snaer. The Seminoles’ defense was airtight as usual. They made every single pass Carolina made difficult. Bernard James was a dominant force inside with five blocked shots, including several key rejections in the final minutes. While scoring 85 points is a major accomplishment for the Seminoles, it was their defense that won them the game.

Carolina had to play without John Henson, and it showed. The Tar Heels won the rebounding battle, 39-30, but the Seminoles were able to score at the rim with aggression. That would not happen if the ACC’s leading shot-blocker was on the floor. The entire complexion of the game would have been different had Henson been healthy, but this still should ultimately serve as an invaluable learning experience for Carolina.

North Carolina’s last-minute offense was questionable at best. Down 83-79 with 30 seconds left, Kendall Marshall hoisted an off-balance three-pointer that somehow went in. After Okaro White missed the front end of a 1-and-1, Carolina had a golden opportunity to win the game on the final shot. It would have made sense for either Marshall or Harrison Barnes to take the ball and attack the rim, where they are most successful, or feed Tyler Zeller in the post for an isolation. Instead Marshall took a pull-up three-pointer with plenty of time on the clock, and he missed. Twice this season, UNC has had the ball in the final seconds with a chance to win the game, and twice it has failed miserably. That’s a red flag.

Player of the Game:

Michael Snaer capped off his Tournament MVP campaign with a gutsy 18-point effort on 4-of-5 shooting from long range. He came out with a fire in his eye and a determination that spread throughout his team in the first half. The Seminoles played with a swagger that started with Snaer. It was a complete effort by the Seminoles, especially on the defensive end of the floor, but Snaer was the guiding light through three straight wins to capture the program’s first ever ACC championship.

What it means:

Florida State could have earned itself as high as a 3-seed when the NCAA bracket is revealed later this evening. They finished 4-1 against North Carolina and Duke. If Snaer and Ian Miller can score consistently on the perimeter, the Seminoles have enough depth to get the support elsewhere. Unfortunately, the ‘Noles can’t play Duke and Carolina every game. Making a deep NCAA Tournament run is about maintaining a level of excellence. FSU is peaking at the right time, but all it takes is a poor shooting effort to end its season in a hurry.

Assuming Henson will be completely healthy in a week (two at the most), this does nothing to diminish Carolina’s national championship chances. The Tar Heels spent the last two days playing in Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight-type atmospheres without an integral part of their rotation. You know how when you eliminate one of the five senses, it’s supposed to make the other four stronger? That’s basically what happened this weekend for UNC. And the Heels still came within three points of an ACC Championship.

My All-Tournament Team (Tournament averages)

Michael Snaer (FSU): 18 points, 3.3 assists, 75 % 3-pt FG

Kendall Marshall (UNC): 10 points, 10.1 assists, 50% 3-pt FG

Tyler Zeller (UNC): 18.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, 86% FT

C.J. Leslie (NC State): 17.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 69.6% FG

Terrell Stoglin (Maryland): 27.5 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals

Henson injury a blessing in disguise for UNC

Not again.

That was the consensus feeling among North Carolina faithful as John Henson walked off the court in the first half of Friday’s ACC Quarterfinal game against Maryland with an apparent left wrist injury. The junior forward and 2012 ACC Defensive Player of the Year went to the locker room for several minutes before returning to the sideline. He would briefly re-appear in the game but, after just one trip up and down the court, it was clear that he should not be in the game.

X-rays taken at halftime showed no break to the wrist. Nevertheless, Henson watched the rest of the game from the bench with a thick bag of ice covering the injury. The Tar Heels didn’t need him, finishing off the Terps comfortably, 85-69.

If Roy Williams were smart — and I’m fairly confident he is — Henson should not play again this weekend, even if he’s healthy enough to.

It’s no secret that Williams does not value winning the ACC tournament like most coaches do. Both the 2005 and 2009 national championship teams failed to take the crown. The goal at North Carolina is not to win three straight games in Atlanta, but rather six straight over the next three weeks.

That doesn’t mean the Tar Heels can’t win a couple more games this weekend without their shot-blocking connoisseur.

James Michael McAdoo scooped up the rest of Henson’s minutes Friday and finished with 14 points and eight rebounds. It was unquestionably his best game this season. He played a season-high 29 minutes, surpassing the 21 he amassed in the regular season finale at Duke.

If Carolina is going to win a national championship, Henson must be in the line-up and healthy. There’s no arguing that. But getting high-quality minutes off the bench from McAdoo is almost as important.

Since the Feb. 6 loss to Duke, McAdoo has averaged nearly 17 minutes, 5.5 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. Those numbers won’t blow anyone away, but that’s why numbers don’t always tell the story.

Since the Heels’ last defeat, everything started to click for the freshman. He played smarter. He played harder. He finally showed the confidence of the player who was a top-five recruit a year ago. He showed longer stretches of consistency, but there was still room for improvement.

This weekend is a perfect opportunity for McAdoo to find that consistency that could make a national championship that much more attainable for the Tar Heels.

Henson has nothing to gain and so much to lose by playing again in the ACC Tournament. McAdoo, meanwhile, could gain invaluable experience — in a tournament atmosphere no less — by taking Henson’s place Saturday (and potentially Sunday).

No other team in the country can lose a defensive player of the year and replace him with a McDonald’s All-American and future NBA Lottery Pick. Carolina might as well make the most of it.

#ACCTRNY 1st round recap & 2nd round picks

I’m finally back from a long and memorable spring break, Bahamas style. I’m not sure what was harder: regaining my land legs or catching up on five days’ worth of March Madness. Regardless, I’m finally ready again — both mentally and physically — to return to the blogosphere.

During my cruise, we enjoyed a lavish dinner in a grand ballroom every night. One night, the featured appetizer was cooked alligator. I didn’t want to order it, but I felt like I had to. It didn’t go down easy, but I’d be lying if I say I wouldn’t try it again next year. The unusual starter gave way to a delicious prime rib and a rich, rich, rich chocolate melting cake. The main course was familiar yet spectacular.

This is, more or less, how the 2012 ACC Tournament works. Thursday’s first round was almost painful to watch at times, but I nevertheless enjoyed it for the most part. It was the first round in name only; today is marks the start of all the real fun.

To summarize Thursday, Maryland used 44 points from Terrell Stoglin and Nick Faust to dispense of Wake Forest 82-60. In the following game Boston College fought tooth and nail with NC State but, as was the case with the Eagles all season, they didn’t have the horses to ever have a real shot. The Wolfpack pulled away late to win 78-57. State now faces Virginia Friday, a game it must win to feel remotely safe about its NCAA Tournament chances.

In the night session, Virginia Tech provided the first and only upset of the day. The Hokies knocked off a sluggish Clemson team 68-63. Erick Green was the best player on the floor despite battling unusually severe exhaustion in the first half. He finished with 24 points, four assists and four rebounds. Dorenzo Hudson’s 19 points were his most since the third game of the year. The Hokies now earn a rematch with Duke, whom they fell against in overtime on the road just three weeks ago.

The best certainly wasn’t saved for last. The final game of the night was the ugliest of them all, a 54-36 Miami win over Georgia Tech. It was an ignominious finale for the Yellow Jackets, who won just 11 games in Brian Gregory’s first season. After reading the postgame quotes from some of the players though, it seems like the team bought into Gregory’s philosophy and better days are ahead in Atlanta. Miami, meanwhile, moves on to face Florida State. The Hurricanes hammered the Seminoles two weeks ago despite the absence of Reggie Johnson, who was sitting out as his eligibility was briefly suspended by the NCAA.

Second Round Preview

UNC vs Maryland, 12 pm

The Tar Heels are peaking at the right time, which is bad news for the rest of America. Is anyone surprised? Roy Williams builds his teams every year to play its best basketball come tournament time. Maryland has the pieces to give the Heels a scare, but only if the Terps are at their best and the Tar Heels lack the same focus that’s fueled a current seven-game winning streak. Alex Len frustrated John Henson to no end in the first match-up, but Tyler Zeller was too much to handle in a Carolina blowout two weeks ago in Chapel Hill. As hot as the Heels have been, they rarely play up to their potential in the ACC Tournament. Maryland will hang around today, but it won’t be enough.

Prediction: UNC 78, Maryland 70

Virginia vs. NC State, 2:30 p.m.

Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried came out publicly over the last week and criticized Virginia’s soft schedule, saying his team’s tougher slate should earn them greater merit in the eyes of the Selection Committee. He’s conveniently failed to mention the Pack’s 61-60 loss to the Cavaliers in Raleigh on Jan. 28. Virginia has not beaten a top-100 RPI team since then, however. The Cavs are dropping like flies and are left with seven scholarship players. Assane Sene (suspension) and Malcolm Brogdon (foot injury) will both miss the rest of the season. Joe Harris is also playing with a broken left hand. Against an NC State club that absolutely needs to win, all signs point to the Pack emerging victorious. I can’t say I disagree. Look for a big game from CJ Leslie.

Prediciton: NC State 58, Virginia 55

Duke vs. Virginia Tech, 7 p.m.

Credit the Hokies for giving their best effort every night despite a season that was lost many weeks ago. For what he may lack otherwise, Seth Greenberg is a master motivator and the Hokies seem unusually confident that they can knock off the Blue Devils. Duke is without Ryan Kelly, who injured his foot in practice this week and will miss at least the rest of the weekend. Call me crazy, but I think the Hokies have a great chance to win tonight. They need Marquis Rankin to play after missing Thursday’s win with a sore knee. It’s incredibly hard to pick against Duke in the ACC Tournament, but if the Devils aren’t making outside shots, this game will be very interesting.

Prediction: Duke 65, Virginia Tech 61

Florida State vs. Miami, 9:30 p.m.

The Seminoles are the ultimate wild card in March. Their defense is never in question, but it’s impossible to know which team will show up offensively. Will it be the one that scored 48 against Virginia Tech or the one that put up 80 last week against Clemson? There’s no way to tell. For Miami, they are equally as inconsistent. The ‘Canes have won nine of their last 13 games including the win over FSU on Feb. 26. Kenny Kadji and Reggie Johnson must control the glass and give Miami second chances on the offensive end. Florida State is extremely good at limiting scoring opportunities. Of course, if Miami’s shooters get hot like they did in the last match-up, the Hurricanes have a great chance as well. They made nine threes against the ‘Noles last time. On paper, this is the best game of the day — which probably means both teams will stink up the joint. One can only hope.

Prediction: Miami 61, Florida State 59

Marshall’s career night silences the critics

It turns out Kendall Marshall reads the newspaper, too.

Prior to North Carolina’s trip to NC State Tuesday night, the Raleigh News & Observer previewed the game in its morning paper. It broke the game down position by position in an effort to decide who had the edge at each spot.

The point guard edge went to State’s Lorenzo Brown, a fine player and an integral part of the Wolfpack’s success this season. When the story reached Marshall’s hands before the game, it gave the ACC’s assist leader a chip on his shoulder.

The article labeled Marshall “one-dimensional.”

Fair enough, right? After all, prior to Tuesday, Marshall averaged just 6.6 points per game to go with his gaudy 9.6 assists mark. He is known as the penultimate deferrer, frequently passing up open shots to give his ultra-talented teammates the chance to score. He’s shooting worse than 30 percent from three-point range and is constantly being knocked (somewhat unfairly) for his lack of quickness on the defensive end of the floor.

None of those flaws showed up Tuesday. Marshall scored a career-high 22 points on 7-of-8 shooting (4-of 5 from long range), 13 assists…and zero turnovers. Statistically speaking, it was one of the best games by a Tar Heel point guard ever. Let that sink in for a minute.

It’s no secret that Marshall bases his willingness to shoot by whether or not he’s hot early. If he misses his first shot or two, he may not shoot again save for a lay-up here or there. If he hits a couple shots early, he’s a little more frugal with his shot selection. Tuesday’s game was unlike anything we’ve seen before.

Marshall drained his first two three’s as Carolina jumped ahead 28-18 midway through the first half. To the Wolfpack’s credit, they didn’t fold despite a scorching start by the Tar Heels.

As the ‘Pack clawed their way back into the game, it was Marshall who helped Carolina pull away once more — with his shooting. Carolina led 37-36 late in the first half when Harrison Barnes sunk two free throws, followed by Marshall’s third trey of the game, and the Heels went to the locker room leading 46-41.

Carolina controlled the second half, per usual, en route to an 86-74 victory. On a rare night that the Heels were dominated inside, Marshall’s sharp shooting was the major difference in the game. The Wolfpack outscored Carolina 42-22 in the paint.

Time and again this season we’ve heard “If UNC can do _____, it can’t be stopped.” Well, the Tar Heels’ ability to shoot the ball is the absolute No. 1 difference between what will make them a very good team or a great one.

For instance, on the occasions this season that Carolina has looked the best this season, it’s when the Heels have been hot from outside. One of their strongest performances of the year was the loss at Kentucky, when they shot 10-of-18 from deep.

Everyone knows about Carolina’s strength in the frontcourt. Tyler Zeller and John Henson form the most formidable inside tandem in the country, while Harrison Barnes is the most NBA-ready small forward in the nation, a mortal lock to be a top-3 pick in June.

It’s up to the likes of Reggie Bullock (11 points Tuesday, 3-of-6 from three), P.J. Hairston (slumping: three points in six minutes Tueday), and ultimately Marshall to space the floor with their ability to score on the perimeter. If not, teams will continue to collapse on the post and clog the lane. Even then, only a handful of teams can beat the Tar Heels, but they can’t win a national championship without a balanced attack.

If Tuesday night was a sign of things to come from Marshall, it will be the missing ingredient to a deep March run that has always been assumed to end in New Orleans.

Note to America: don’t sell Kendall Marshall short.

LINKS

—   Virginia escaped Blacksburg with a 61-59 win over Virginia Tech in a game that the Cavaliers couldn’t afford to lose. TechHoops was encouraged by the play of the Hokies’ four freshmen in the loss.

—   The Cavaliers are dropping like flies, though, and it’s at the worst possible time. Malcolm Brogdon played through “throbbing” pain at the end of the game, and Paul Jesperson had to play a career-high 28 minutes (although he played very well). Brian Schwartz at Streaking the Lawn has a full analysis from the ‘Hoos side of things.

—   Ken Sugiura of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution hits the highlights of Georgia Tech’s embarrassing 56-37 home loss to Clemson Tuesday.

—   Maryland’s comeback win over Miami felt like three wins in one to Terps’ coach Mark Turgeon. I’ll have more on this game later, but what an impressive effort from Turgeon’s club.

—   Duke Hoop Blog is a must-read for all ACC fans, not just Blue Devil faithful. This post from Sunday was a follow-up to an extremely thoroughly researched blog post comparing each ACC team’s success at home compared to on the road. It’s stat heavy, but the graphs are great and it’s really interesting if you’re in to that stuff.

VIDEO OF THE DAY

Holy. Freaking. Crap. This latest posterization comes courtesy of Gabe York, a consensus top-100 recruit who’ll be dunking on some poor folks in the Pac-12 next season as a member of the Arizona Wildcats’ No. 1 recruiting class. I’ve watched this about 50 times since yesterday.

February 21st Preview

Clemson at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (RSN/ESPN3)

Storyline: Don’t let Clemson’s 5-7 conference record fool you. Five of those seven losses have come by four points or fewer. The Tigers are a dangerous team that vastly underachieved in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Over the next few weeks, they have a chance to be a major spoiler if they can embrace that role. Tonight’s trip to Georgia Tech is a game they should win, especially considering the Yellow Jackets are without suspended star Glen Rice, Jr.

Player to watch: Milton Jennings is the most enigmatic player in the ACC. The brash Clemson forward has steadily improved as the season has progressed, with the exception of a two-game suspension at the end of January (the Tigers lost both game by a combined six points). He’s shooting better than 42 percent from three-point range in conference play. Combine his length with a quick step and such a sweet stroke from deep, and Jennings is a nightmare matchup for most teams. He’s averaging 10.8 points per game since returning from suspension. There’s not a player on Georgia Tech’s roster who matches up well with Jennings. As is the case on many nights, Jennings’ focus tonight may be the difference between a Clemson win or loss.

Prediction: Georgia Tech is going nowhere fast, whereas Clemson hasn’t quit on coach Brad Brownell despite such an awful start to the season. The Rice suspension wasn’t exactly what the last-place Yellow Jackets needed with five (now four) games left. The winner tonight will break a 60-60 tie in the all-time series between the two programs.

CLEMSON 65, GEORGIA TECH 54

North Carolina at NC State, 8 p.m. (ACC Network split/ESPN3)

Storyline: I went into great detail yesterday on NC State’s woes since halftime of last Thursday’s loss at Duke. For North Carolina, the opportunity remains for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (even it is in the West, which is inevitable). The Tar Heels have won three straight games by an average of 16.3 points since falling to Duke, but they’ve done so while shooting just 28 percent from three-point range.

The Heels absolutely smother teams on the boards (plus-12 margin on the season), and it’s their dominance in the frontcourt that makes it almost impossible for most teams to stand a chance.

Player to watch: In the games that Carolina has struggled this season, it’s been because its opponent has been lights out from long range. Scott Wood has the ability to fill that role tonight. He leads the ACC, shooting 42 percent from three on the season. If he can get hot early and energize the home crowd, the Wolfpack can absolutely pull off the upset. He’ll have to reverse recent fortunes, however. Wood is just 5-of-27 from the field in his last three games entering tonight.

The Tar Heels have shown a propensity for getting flustered when they fall behind early on the road. If North Carolina jumps out to an early lead and Wood isn’t knocking down outside shots, well, there’s very little chance for State in this game.

Prediction: The Heels won the first match-up 74-55, thanks to the aforementioned dominance on the glass. Carolina outrebounded State 48-26 in that contest. The tallest player in the Wolfpack’s main rotation is 6-foot-9 DeShawn Painter. John Henson and Tyler Zeller should have their way in the paint per usual, and NC State will continue to fall apart at the seams, letting an at-large bid slip through its grasp in the process.

NORTH CAROLINA 79, NC STATE 62

Miami at Maryland, 8 p.m. (ACC Network Split/ESPN3)

Storyline: The Hurricanes continue to claw their way back into the at-large discussion with a trip to Maryland tonight. The importance of this contest for Jimmy Larranaga’s club cannot be understated. Miami simply cannot afford a loss tonight if it hopes to attract the attention of the selection committee. Maryland is in complete disarray following a 27-point loss to Virginia.

With Pe’Shon Howard lost for the season, the Terps have lost a significant piece of their backcourt, one that would have been invaluable matching up with Miami’s trio of Durand Scott, Shane Larkin and Malcolm Grant.

Players to watch: Kenny Kadji has quietly assembled a spectacular season in his first year of eligibility with Miami. The former Florida transfer is averaging nearly 13 points and six rebounds per game while shooting 54 percent from the field. His length at 6-foot-11 makes him an extreme mismatch on the offensive end against anyone not named John Henson. Maryland’s inexperienced frontcourt will have trouble matching the physicality of Kadji and Reggie Johnson inside.

Prediction:The Terrapins nearly stole a win in Miami when the teams last met on February 1^st, instead falling in double overtime 90-86. It’s been a bumpy road for Mark Turgeon and company since then, losing three of five, including having the bottom fall out against the Cavaliers. Miami has much more to play for tonight, and that should be enough to carry them to an important victory on the road.

MIAMI 66, MARYLAND 60

Virginia at Virginia Tech, 9 p.m. (ESPNU)

Storyline: Seth Greenberg once famously said the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee would be “certifiably insane” if it left his Hokies out of the big dance. Well, Greenberg himself might have earned that moniker Monday when he told reporters he was focused on building the Hokies’ tournament resume, despite a 4-8 record in ACC play and absolutely no shot whatsoever at earning an at-large bid. That said, the Hokies have played much better of late, splitting their last six games after a 1-5 start in league play. Virginia, meanwhile, has lost three of five and is in danger of falling out of at-large consideration if the swoon continues. Exacting revenge on the Hokies, who stole a one-point win in Charlottesville last month, is step number one in avoiding such a catastrophe.

Players to watch: It’s no secret that Mike Scott is the key to everything for the Cavaliers, but he’ll no doubt step on the court tonight with a chip on his shoulder. The Hokies held Scott to 10 points in the last match-up, his lowest output for any game in which he’s played at least 30 minutes this season. Tech will be without starting center Victor Davila tonight, placing the burden of containing Scott on the less experienced shoulders of Cadarian Raines and C.J. Barksdale. To make an educated guess, Scott won’t quite be kept in check like last time.

Prediction:  A Virginia loss would raise some serious red flags for Tony Bennett’s club heading into a difficult final stretch of the season. The blowout win over Maryland seemed to cure many ills, at least temporarily. Virginia Tech is anything but an offensive juggernaut, but Greenberg’s recent strategy of playing the guys with the highest effort in practice has kept them competitive in recent games. Contrary to what the Hokies’ head coach may say, there is much more on the line in this game for the Cavaliers.

VIRGINIA 55, VIRGINIA TECH 50

ACC Player of the Year Watch: Zeller vs. Scott By the Numbers

The battle for ACC Player of the Year has shifted into fifth gear now, with every team facing six more games to play in the regular season. The league has been dominated by size…lots and lots of size. There are tremendous guards such as Kendall Marshall, Terrell Stoglin and Austin Rivers, who are all worthy of considerable distinction. However, the cream of the crop belongs amongst the men who must duck their heads to leave the locker room.

Harrison Barnes was the overwhelming favorite for the league’s top individual honor in the preseason, but a good, albeit vanilla season with no truly eye-opening moments has put his chances on its last leg.

John Henson enjoyed a monster start to the season, but his play has cooled off in ACC play, and while he’s still one of the most dominant players in the league, he’s been overshadowed by a pair of fellow paint-dwellers in the midst of compiling memorable seasons.

It is now apparent that either Tyler Zeller or Mike Scott will walk away at season’s end honored as the league’s top player. It’s an airtight battle that almost exclusively hinges on what areas of the game the respective voters will emphasize.

So let’s take a look at where Zeller and Scott size up with one another through February 14.

Scoring

Scott plays about 3.5 more minutes per game (30.2) than Zeller (26.9), which explains his higher scoring output (17.1 to 16.0). If you account for the discrepancy in playing time, Zeller’s point per 40 minutes (23.8) is reasonably better than Scott’s (22.6).

However, North Carolina plays at an incredibly faster pace. The Tar Heels average 13 more possessions per game (74.1, seventh in the country) than Virginia (60.8, 340^th out of 344 teams). On the surface, this might show that Scott touches the ball far fewer times than Zeller. Scott doesn’t share the floor with three other potential All-Americans, however. Scott averages 10.6 attempts from the floor. Zeller averages 10.5. Scott actually is a higher volume shooter than Zeller, but scores at a less efficient rate.

That said, Scott is a much more versatile scorer. He has the ability to draw his defender away from the basket and make jump shots or even occasionally attack off the dribble. Zeller has become almost exclusively a back-to-the-basket player; in years past he was good for an 18-foot jump shot or two each game, but that has disappeared this season for whatever reason.

Both are extremely good free throw shooters for big men. Scott owns a narrow edge at 81 percent compared to 78.4 for Zeller. Zeller does draw fouls at a relatively higher rate than Scott. Zeller’s free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is 52.8 percent; Scott’s is 49.6.

If I had to pick one player to give the ball to in the final seconds of a tie game, Scott’s my guy. Zeller has made some memorably important shots in his career, including the lay-up at the buzzer to beat Miami in the ACC Tournament last season. Scott is a more creative scorer, and that’s where I give him the edge.

ADVANTAGE: SCOTT

This is going be even closer than I thought.

A visual display of just how similar Zeller and Scott are as scorers, via StatSheet.com

Rebounding

Zeller has a big advantage here — about four inches’ worth, to be exact. The Tar Heels’ seven-footer is a monster on the glass, especially of late. In ACC play, he leads the conference averaging 10.8 boards per game. He’s hauled in double-figure rebounds in 12 of his last 16 games, including at least 17 twice.

Scott is aggressive on the boards as well, which he must be considering he occasionally gives up two to three inches on his counterpart in the paint. He accounts for a significantly higher percentage of his team’s defensive rebounds (23.4 percent, 55^th in the country) than Zeller does for Carolina (19.9 percent, 208^th). Of course, this is a direct effect of Zeller sharing the glass with rebounding machine John Henson, whose 10.3 rebounds per game lead the conference.

Zeller holds a big advantage on the offensive glass. Again, this is as much a factor of the team he plays for as anything else. Scott takes a higher percentage of his team’s shots, which in theory decreases his chances of grabbing offensive boards. Zeller’s 4.1 offensive rebounds per game ranks fifth nationally. Scott averages 2.4, which is 220^th. Zeller pulls down 15.4 percent of potential offensive boards (seventh nationally), while Scott’s mark is 10.9 percent (264^th). That last stat accounts for the aforementioned theoretical difference between the players’ respective teams. Zeller is much better at giving his team second chances offensively, which is a considerable reason why Carolina leads the nation in scoring.

ADVANTAGE: ZELLER

Scott and Zeller's rebounding match-up, via StatSheet.com

Defense

Henson gets the lion’s share of attention as Carolina’s best defender, but it’s Zeller who routinely earns the team’s defensive player of the game honors as handed out by the coaching staff. He’s not the dynamic, game-changing shot blocker that Henson is, but Zeller’s fundamental post defense is impeccable. He is incredibly disciplined (just 2.4 fouls per game, 0 career foul-outs), and his footwork is spectacular. He is rarely beat in post isolation situations.

Scott uses his athleticism to account for a disadvantage in height, and he has tremendously reduced his foul rate since earlier in his career. Against the toughest competition he’s seen all year, however, Scott struggled defensively. Who was the foe? Why, none other than North Carolina just this past Saturday. Scott battled foul trouble (which inevitably doomed the Cavaliers) while lending a hand in allowing Zeller to score 25 points on 9-of-16 shooting.

Neither player is a ferocious presence as a shot blocker, but Zeller naturally does so at a higher rate. Zeller average 1.4 blocks per game, Scott just 0.4. It’s hard to think Zeller’s number wouldn’t hover around at least two or so if Henson didn’t swat everything away himself. Nevertheless, neither play rely integrally on shot blocking as much as they do basic defensive principles. In that respect, Scott is sharp, but Zeller is sharper.

ADVANTAGE: ZELLER

Zeller vs. Scott defensive chart, via StatSheet.com

Value

This is where the biggest separation between the two players lies, and could very well be the biggest tipping point in voters’ minds when they submit their ballots next month.

Without Scott, Virginia might not even be in contention for the NIT, let alone the NCAA Tournament. He’s basically the only offensive weapon on a team that rests its laurels on shutting teams down defensively and letting Scott carry the load on the other end.

He’s played at a consistently high level all season, and quite frankly his play stands out more because its part of a resurgent season for Virginia, as opposed to a Carolina season that’s anything but unusual. If the two players swapped teams, everything would be reversed. Zeller would be the center of national attention carrying the load for one of the more surprising teams in America, while Scott would be just another key piece on a loaded team unsurprisingly marching towards an ACC title.

Nevertheless, it is what it is, and Scott’s impact on Virginia is much more noticeable than Zeller’s at North Carolina. Of course, without Zeller, the Tar Heels’ Final Four chances plummet, but would at least exist. Without Scott, Virginia wouldn’t have a prayer of making the dance.

Of course, the ultimate equalizer can be if North Carolina wins the regular season championship. Quite often, the best player on the best team (unfairly) picks up the hardware. The Tar Heels are in a three-way tie for first place at 8-2 with six games to play, and Virginia is all but out of contention at 6-4 in conference play.

ADVANTAGE: SCOTT

Final Verdict:

The blessing and the curse of this post is that there is no verdict yet. If you’re keeping score at home, you’ll notice both Scott and Zeller earned the nod in two categories apiece. If both players finish the season at similar paces, this will be as close of a call as we’ve seen in recent memory for the award. Zeller managed to get the better of Scott in their first match-up, but the Heels and ‘Hoos meet again on February 25. Both coaches will say that the outcome of the game is all that will matter, but Scott vs. Zeller is a hell of an undercard.

#ACCLove

The Four Tiers of the ACC

Opportunity has passed the ACC by once again. With league play starting up Saturday, there have been more debilitating losses than eye-opening wins so far. One-third of the conference is ranked outsides the RPI’s top 100, and just four teams are in the top 50 (meanwhile, the Big East has four schools in the top six).

Why is a league that once prided itself on being basketball royalty suddenly on the brink of battling the CAA and Atlantic 10 for NCAA Tournament bids? Coaching turnover for one. Virginia’s Tony Bennett is the fifth-longest tenured coach in the ACC — in just his third year. The mass exodus of head coaches following the past two seasons has placed several former prominent programs such as Maryland, Georgia Tech, NC State and Wake Forest in rebuilding mode.

Times are hard, even at the top. Duke hit the road on Wednesday to face Temple, and the Owls led virtually the entire game in a 78-73 upset. North Carolina is 13-2, but is just 2-2 against the RPI top 50. While nobody doubts the Tar Heels’ talent, there hasn’t been a true marquee win by anyone in the ACC this season.

If you’ve watched any of ESPN’s broadcasts of ACC games this year, you’ve noticed they typically include whichever analyst’s breakdown of the league into three “tiers.” I don’t think I’ve seen one that I’ve agreed with yet. So, as a primer for ACC play, I’ll give my own groupings that hopefully make sense to all. Following my tier rankings, I project every team’s conference record, so make sure to check that out as well.

(League power ranking in parentheses)

Tier 1: NCAA Tournament Locks

(1) North Carolina, (2) Duke

Surprise, surprise. The Tar Heels and Blue Devils are on a crash course to meet in the ACC Championship Game yet again. The biggest point of separation between these two and the rest of the league is frontcourt play.

For North Carolina, no team in America boasts an interior as long and athletic as John Henson and Tyler Zeller. Opponents take the ball into the paint at their own risk against the Heels. North Carolina has defended 376 three-pointers this season, the third highest total in the country. Nobody takes it inside against the Tar Heels. John Henson leads the ACC with 3.2 blocks per game.

Duke’s front line of Mason and Miles Plumlee, along with Ryan Kelly, is a formidable group in its own right. The Plumlees have been inconsistent at times, but have played well of late. They combined for 33 points and 17 rebounds in Duke’s loss to Temple.

Both UNC and Duke should sleep their way through eight or nine games in ACC play. They’ll need to barely rise from their slumber in another three or four. They’ll get everyone’s best shot as always, but the bottom third of the league is so miserable that it won’t be much of a challenge for either team.

NCAA Tournament Hopefuls

(3) Virginia, (4) Virginia Tech, (5) NC State, (6) Miami, (7) Florida State

The Cavaliers are off to their best start in recent memory and are in the driver’s seat for the ACC’s third NCAA bid. Even the ‘Hoos success hasn’t come without turmoil, though. Once-prized recruit KT Harrell transferred in mid-December, as did the seldom used James Johnson. Among their last four games, the Cavaliers squeaked by winless Towson and lowly Seattle to prove their vulnerability. They are the still best defensive team in the league, allowing only 50.4 points per game (second nationally).

Virginia Tech seems destined for a fifth straight season on the bubble. The Hokies have failed to win any of its games against RPI-top 50 opponents, which will undoubtedly hurt them come Selection Sunday. Erick Green has been steady at point guard, but it’s an influx of youth is what has kept Virginia Tech afloat in the aftermath of Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen’s departure. Highly Dorian Finney-Smithh has struggled offensively but leads the team with 8.2 rebounds per game. Robert Brown has been a lightning rod on the wing, mainly because of his outside shooting and highly active defense. Marquis Rankin has been a solid backup for Green, while CJ Barksdale provides quality depth in the post that Tech has not been accustomed to in a long time.

NC State has shown flashes of promise in the early season under first-year coach Mark Gottfried. The Wolfpack have five players averaging double-figure points, but a lack of depth will test this team through the grind of the conference schedule. C.J. Leslie is enjoying a strong sophomore season after a disappointing rookie campaign. He’s scoring 13 points and hauling in more than six rebounds per game. The ‘Pack only played one true road game through their 11-4 start, so they may struggle in some of the tougher ACC road environments in the early going.

Nobody is paying attention to Miami, but the Hurricanes are finally at full strength and are a dynamic club that matches up better with Duke and North Carolina than anyone else in the league. DeQuan Jones regained his eligibility mid-season in the wake of the Nevin Shapiro schedule, and seems caught up to speed in new coach Jim Larranaga’s system. Dominant big man Reggie Johnson returned from an off-season knee injury, and the ‘Canes have averaged 88 points during their four-game win streak since his return. Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant form one of the toughest backcourts in the country, giving Miami a balanced offensive attack.

In a season drenched in disappointment, Florida State is the league’s posterchild of it all. Fresh off a Sweet 16 appearance last March, the Seminoles had high hopes for a similarly strong season. Instead, the Seminoles might want to put out an APB for any semblance of offensive prowess. They are 10th in the ACC in offensive efficiency, 11th in three-point shooting and fifth in scoring. That’s not going to get it done against Carolina and Duke, which is who Florida State compared itself to in the preseason. Leonard Hamilton has been around the block a time or two, though, and my bet is Florida State will finish the season stronger than it started it.

Tier 3: NCAA Longshots

(8) Wake Forest, (9) Maryland, (10) Clemson

After last season’s debacle, the Demon Deacons have already won more games than they did all of last season. Travis McKie is one of the best players America’s never heard of. He’s averaging a shade under 18 points and six rebounds per game. C.J. Harris has also been a focal point of the Deacs’ mild resurgence with 19 points per game on 54 percent shooting. Depth is a major issue here, as Jeff Bzdelik was left with a mangled roster last year following Dino Gaudio’s surprising ouster. Can Wake Forest make the dance? Probably not, but I like the pieces on this team and they are hungry to erase the memory of of 2010-11 from everyone’s minds.

Don’t let Maryland’s seven-game win streak fool you. The average RPI of the Terps’ foes in that stretch is 212. Their average margin of victory during the streak was a mere 7.14, and that includes an 11-point overtime win against Albany at home. Terrell Stoglin has been terrific thus far and he leads the ACC with 21.1 points per game. Sean Mosley is second on the team with 10.2 points per game, as he hits the home stretch of what has been a disappointing career. Part of me wants to call off the dogs on Maryland, but a 10-win ACC season — albeit a miraculous one — is not entirely impossible. There are too many question marks on the teams ahead of them on this list to give the Terps no shot.

I have no rational explanation for why Clemson is so bad. I thought this team would take a step forward in Brad Brownell’s second season, but their inability to score and extended lapses of focus on the defensive end make me wonder if Brownell has completely lost this team. There’s more than enough talent to contend for an NCAA bid, but it’s not showing on the court this season. The best thing Clemson fans can hope for is the Tigers treat the ACC slate as an entirely new season and finally live up to their potential. A win at home on Saturday against Florida State is almost a must at this point.

Tier 4: No chance

(11) Georgia Tech, (12) Boston College

The odds these two clubs combine for more than five ACC wins is roughly equivalent to the chances either one of these teams offers me a scholarship. Boston College is downright pathetic. The Eagles have lost to Holy Cross, UMass, St. Louis, Penn State, Boston, Harvard (for the fourth straight year, but not a bad loss this time around for once), and Rhode Island. They are 262nd in the RPI, which is about three times as high as the typical ACC cellar-dwellers reside. It’s an extremely young collection of players that will take a beating against virtually every other team in the league.

Except for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets enter league play on a three-game losing streak, which consisted of defeats to Mercer, Fordham and a 25-point blowout to Alabama. Their leading scorer, Glen Rice, Jr. averages only 12 points per game. They are 11th in the league in offensive efficiency despite facing an extremely weak out-of-conference schedule. New coach Brian Gregory also has a whale of a job in front of him to clean up the mess that Paul Hewitt left behind. Gregory will be much more meticulous in his job building the program than Hewitt ever was. Thenear future is extremely dim for Tech, but if the fan base can be patient, there is a light at the end of this long tunnel.

PROJECTED RECORDS

1. North Carolina 14-2*

2. Duke 13-3*

3. Virginia 11-5*

T-4. Miami 10-6*

T-4. Virginia Tech 10-6^

T-6. NC State 9-7^

T-6. Florida State 9-7^

8. Wake Forest 6-10

T-8. Clemson 6-10

10. Maryland 5-11

11. Georgia Tech 2-14

12. Boston College 1-15

*NCAA at-large

^Will need strong ACC Tournament showing for at-large bid

Study break: catching up on the ACC

There’s only one game in the ACC until Saturday (FIU at Maryland, Wednesday 7:30) with most schools smack dab in the middle of final exam week. Quite frankly, so am I. Consider this a study break.

We’re already full month into the season, as hard is that is to believe. So what have we learned so far about the ACC?

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1. North Carolina is vulnerable

Beyond any personnel issues we tried to extract from the Tar Heels in the preseason (i.e. point guard depth, three-point shooting), the chief concern for any team as heavily praised as Carolina was is always maintaining a competitive edge. Last season the Heels had something to prove. Kendall Marshall took over as the starting point guard immediately following a 20-point drubbing at the hands of Georgia Tech, which is right when most of the nation lost faith in the Heels to challenge for the ACC crown. All they did was rattle of 12 of their last 13 regular season games and finish the season in the Elite 8. That team had no shortage of motivation.

That’s what we thought would happen again this season. Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes and John Henson all spurned the NBA for the chance to win a national championship. There was a clear goal for this group, but spending eight months hearing about how unbeatable of you will get in anyone’s head. UNLV spanked the unsuspecting Heels in Las Vegas, then Kentucky held off Carolina by one point in Lexington the following week.

There’s no doubt that Carolina has what it takes to win the national championship. It’s going to take a much more concerted effort than what they’ve shown so far to make it happen, though. The Heels have been out-rebounded in five of their 10 games so far. That’s beyond unacceptable for a team boasting four future first-round draft picks in its front court. They’ll figure it out come tournament time, if not before, but Carolina fans are going to be subjected to some frustrating nights between now and then.

2. Virginia is the third best team in the ACC…at least

We all knew this was coming, we just weren’t sure it would be this soon. The Tony Bennett project is ahead of schedule in Charlottesville, thanks to a healthy Mike Scott and an incredible display of team defense thus far. The Cavaliers rank second nationally behind only Wisconsin (which, ironically enough, used to be coached by Bennett’s father Dick) in points allowed per game at 47.9.

The Wahoos made a statement in the ACC/Big 10 challenge by disposing of Michigan 70-58 at home. Tim Hardaway Jr., a future lottery pick for the Wolverines, was held to just five points on 2-of-9 shooting in that contest.

It’s not all about defense for Bennett’s club, though. The Cavs are third in the ACC in effective field goal percentage at 53.4 percent (just a hair behind UNC — 53.6). They are also tied for the second fewest turnovers per game in the league at 12.3. They aren’t shooting quite as well from three-point range this season (down to 34.8 percent from 38.8 last season), but they’re getting the ball to the rim this season and making their free throws. The Cavaliers lead the ACC by making 74.2 percent of their foul shots.

Bottom line is, Virginia is extremely balanced and very well-coached. The ‘Hoos are determined to contend for the conference title. It’s not out of the question to think Virginia could challenge Duke for the No. 2 spot in the league.

Scott made it very clear before the season started that he did not want to end his career without an NCAA Tournament appearance. It seems like he’s well on his way to making good on that goal.

3. Austin Rivers is too good for his own good

Now is an awful time to criticize Rivers, considering he was just named ACC Rookie of the Week for the second time this season. There’s no questioning the freshman’s supreme skill set – the dribble pull-up jumper, the lateral quickness, the explosiveness off the dribble – but it’s taken him some time to adjust to not only the college game, but how it operates when you’re wearing a Duke uniform.

Too often does Rivers clearly show an extreme overconfidence in his abilities. He has a nasty tendency to take the ball and turn the possession into an isolation against his defender. That’s not Duke’s style. He’s very good at beating his man off the dribble and creating a shot opportunity, but rarely is it the best possible shot that could come of the possession.

Rivers nearly cost the Blue Devils the game in their season opening one-point win against Belmont with several questionable decisions on offense in the final minutes. He has struggled to be a very efficient ball-handler thus far. Here’s a chart comparing his assists and turnovers game-by-game:

Opponent	Assists	Turnovers
Belmont	1	5
Presbyterian	6	0
Michigan State	1	2
Davidson	2	4
Tennessee	2	2
Michigan	3	2
Kansas	0	1
Ohio State	3	2
Colorado State	2	2
Washington	3	3

Take away the Presbyterian game, and Rivers has produced more assists than turnovers just once in nine games. Now, that’s not to say that Rivers hasn’t been an effective offensive player. He’s sixth in the ACC in points per 40 minutes (20.7) and leads Duke in scoring with 15.8 points per game. Andre Dawkins (Belmont) and Tyler Thornton (Kansas) have both nailed critical shots in late-game situations to help seal Devil victories, but Rivers is still the best option Duke has at creating his own shot.

As Rivers matures and learns to distribute the basketball more effectively, it will make himself and his team that much better. Duke has managed a brutal schedule with a 9-1 record, but the Blue Devils have a chance to be even better later in the year. Much of that hinges on the maturation of Rivers.

4. Boston College might be the worst ACC team ever

Just when it seemed the 2010-11 Wake Forest team had hit rock bottom, Boston College came around this season and one-upped them (or one-downed them?). The Eagles are off to a blistering 3-7 start that has included losses to Holy Cross (by 22 points), UMass (38 points) and Boston University (14 points). The Eagles did manage to win a thrilling battle against UC-Riverside 66-62 to snap a three-game losing streak.

I called this eight months ago. The Eagles lost nearly everything from last year, including Reggie Jackson, Joe Trapani, Corey Raji, Biko Paris and Josh Southern. Eight freshmen joined the team last season and the two top returners averaged 6.6 points per game last season.

Steve Donahue is in the midst of a complete overhaul of the program. It’s going to get very ugly before it gets any better. Fortunately, the bottom tier of the league is abysmal. If the Eagles can rally the troops, they may have a prayer against Maryland or Georgia Tech — maybe even Wake Forest! Even that is a stretch, however. I would be anything but surprised if Boston College loses every ACC game it plays this season.

—-

POWER RANKINGS (As of Tuesday, Dec. 12)

1. North Carolina (8-2)

2. Duke (9-1)

3. Virginia (8-1)

4. NC State (6-3)

5. Florida State (7-3)

6. Virginia Tech (6-3)

7. Wake Forest (6-4)

8. Miami (5-4)

9. Maryland (5-3)

10. Georgia Tech (6-4)

11. Clemson (4-4)

12. Boston College (3-7)

—

ALL-ACC TEAM

Kendall Marshall, UNC (5 PPG, 10.2 APG*, 2.6 RPG)

Terrell Stoglin, Maryland (22.5 PPG*, 1.8 APG, 3.3 RPG)

Travis McKie, Wake Forest (18.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.1 SPG)

John Henson, UNC (15 PPG, 10.6 RPG*, 3.3 BPG*)

Mike Scott, Virginia (15.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.8 APG)

*Leads ACC

–

MVP: John Henson

Rookie of the Year: Austin Rivers, Duke (15.8 PPG, 2.3 APG, 42.1 3-pt %)

Defensive MVP: John Henson

Coach of the Month: Tony Bennett, Virginia

Barnes returns to leave a legacy in Chapel Hill

Hanging dauntingly above the court inside the Dean E. Smith Center are 43 North Carolina basketball jerseys.

There is a prestigious criteria that must be met in order to have your jersey added to the collection, which includes the likes of Michael Jordan, Phil Ford and Tyler Hansbrough to name a few.

The requirements include winning any of the six major national player of the year awards, being the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player, ACC Player of the Year, First- or second-team All-America, winning an Olympic Gold Medal, or being MVP of a National Championship-winning team.

It’s no secret Harrison Barnes wants his number 40 outfit included in the group, and that is the biggest reason why he announced Monday he was returning to Chapel Hill for his sophomore season.

Barnes turned down the opportunity to be selected as high as No. 1 overall in June’s NBA Draft for a chance to establish himself as an all-time Tar Heel legend.

Earning that title means seeing your jersey beside Jordan and company.

The news of his return instantly transformed the Tar Heels into the overwhelming favorite to win the 2012 National Championship. The only team that could even argue its own case is Kentucky, and that’s only if freshmen standouts Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones surprise everyone and return to school.

The pressure this North Carolina team is about to face will be unlike anything the sport may have ever seen. There will be at least seven, likely eight legitimate NBA players in the rotation, including four likely NBA Lottery picks.

In addition to Barnes, John Henson, Tyler Zeller and incoming freshman James McAdoo are all projected to be top 14 picks in the 2012 draft, according to DraftExpress.com.

Only twice in the history of basketball has that happened.

What’s scarier, for all of UNC’s future opponents at least, is that all four are 6’8’’ or taller. The Tar Heels will have a legitimate NBA frontcourt that no team in America will be able to come close to matching in size, talent, or experience.

Toss in pass-first point guard extraordinaire Kendall Marshall, lockdown defender Dexter Strickland, plus long-range snipers Leslie McDonald, Reggie Bullock and incoming freshman P.J. Hairston, and it’s hard to find a sizable chink in the Heels’ armor.

But nevertheless, there are plenty of areas for this team to improve upon between now and November.

First and foremost is their foul shooting. Collectively, the Heels shot a mediocre 67.2 percent from the foul line last season. The worst of which was John Henson’s 48.2 percent mark. Henson showed tremendous improvement in the final month of the season, and if he could become a 60-65 percent shooter by next year, it would be a tremendous help.

Marshall must add some bulk to his 185-pound frame, which in turn will help him be more of a threat to score in the paint. He’s a world-class distributor and a reliable three-point shooter, but he struggled to finish at the rim in traffic. In addition, if he can also improve his foul shooting from 69 percent, it would make him nearly unstoppable on the offensive end of the floor. If opposing defenses can’t crowd him on the perimeter for fear of him exploding to the rim and/or drawing fouls, he could set some long-lasting assist records.

Ironically, the Heels were a very solid defensive team last season. Committing on that end of the floor was the biggest problem for the 2005 and 2009 UNC teams that won national titles. If this team can continue its efforts defensively from 2011, that won’t be an issue during this run.

Carolina struggled mightily this season against 2-3 zone defenses, mainly because it had no outside scorers to stretch the defense out. McDonald gained more confidence as the season unfolded, and although he took some ill-advised shots at times, another year of experience and maturity should lead to him filling that void next season.

Not to mention Bullock and Hairston, who were both recruited as three-point assassins. Bullock never really found his groove as a freshman and shot just 29 percent from behind the arc. He will be pushed hard by Hairston, who most recruiting experts say has legitimate NBA range already.

Bullock’s season was already cut short by a knee injury in 2010-11, and his severe mental lapses (see: first Duke game) makes you question his basketball IQ. If Hairston steps in this summer with the right attitude and an understanding of his role – a tall task for a highly-touted freshman – he could steal a lot of Bullock’s minutes from day one.

Back to the pressure thing. Roy Williams dealt with the exact same issues in 2005 and in 2009. In ’05, Raymond Felton, Sean May and Rashad McCants spurned the NBA to make a title run. In ’09, it was Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and Ty Lawson doing the exact same thing.

If there is any coach in America who can handle a team that knows of its dominant potential, it’s Williams.

This upcoming Tar Heel squad will be compared every day of the week and twice on Sunday from now until next April to the aforementioned championship teams, and that’s fair.

What should separate this team from either of those is the man who gave birth to this blog – Barnes.

Barnes is the most NBA-ready player to wear the baby blue since Vince Carter (or Antawn Jamison, take your pick), and he’s ready to show it.

After losing to Kentucky in the Elite Eight last month, Barnes couldn’t stop the tears from flowing in the postgame interview session. Neither could Marshall or Henson. You didn’t see that same emotion from the underclassmen at Kentucky when they were eliminated the following weekend.

This team is committed, and like it or not, Barnes will carry the burden of leading it to the Promised Land.

What makes Barnes so special, is that through thick and thin, he embraces the challenge and won’t shy away from it one bit.

He proved as much in his statement Monday.

“As a team, we’re preparing for a special season. My off-season plans are to diligently work on honing my basketball skills in all areas with one team-goal in mind — to bring the 2012 national championship home to UNC.”

The rafters await him.