Hoops thoughts — FSU’s turnaround, Duke’s vulnerability, VT’s unexpected star, and UNC’s turning point

Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton didn’t panic when his team lost to Auburn. He shrugged off a loss at Virginia Tech that was his team’s third in four games.

“We’re going to shoot the ball better than we have lately…we’ve had games where we’ve made 12 or 13 three’s…we are not as bad of a shooting team as we’ve showed the last few games,” Hamilton said following the Seminoles’ 71-59 loss to the Hokies – a game in which the ‘Noles shot just 35 percent from the field.

Four days later, the Seminoles heated up in its biggest game to date, turning their season around in the process.

In shocking previously unbeaten and top-ranked Duke 66-61, Florida State shot 46 percent from three-point range while holding Duke to an unprecedented 31 percent from the field. The Devils’ previous season low was 40.3 percent.

“Their defense just dominated our offense for about 25 minutes in the ballgame,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said following the game.

While the Seminoles offense has struggled much of the season (they are 10^th in the ACC in field goal percentage), the defense has been rock solid. Led by preseason all-conference pick Chris Singleton, one of the best defenders in the country, the Seminoles lead the nation in field goal percentage defense at 35 percent.

“They’re very fundamentally sound. They play outstanding defense and they’re committed to it,” Krzyzewski said.

Riding the momentum of the biggest win maybe ever under Hamilton, Florida State returned home to beat NC State 84-71. It was an even better offensive display than in Durham, as five Seminoles scored in double figures while shooting 54.5 percent from the field as a team.

“That was the most impressive stat tonight that we had five guys in double figures,” Hamilton said. “We also had some come off the bench and give us productivity. You need all of the sum of your parts working to have success in the ACC.”

NC State is only 11-6, but recently saw the return of senior forward Tracy Smith to the lineup. Smith’s absence early in the season left the Wolfpack without an identity, not to mention much experience. His presence was supposed to push NC State to the head of the line in the ACC.

Instead, Florida State shut down everyone around Smith, whose 19 points led all scorers. The youth around him was out-muscled by the big and physical Seminole defense.

As of Tuesday, the Seminoles sit tied atop the ACC standings at 3-1, along with Duke and Boston College. As long as Hamilton continues to get offensive support from players other than Singleton (Derwin Kitchen has averaged 16.5 ppg since the Virginia Tech loss), Florida State is a viable candidate to challenge the Blue Devils for the conference championship.

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That said, Duke will win the regular season crown. The Blue Devils are far too consistent amidst a league that’s full of up-and-down teams to relinquish the title.

For the first time since Kyrie Irving went down with a toe injury in early December, the Blue Devils have looked like they miss him.

In three conference games, the Blue Devils have turned the ball over an average of 15.6 times per contest. Nolan Smith is not a point guard, and the Blue Devils’ offense has been as smooth as a jar of chunky peanut butter lately because of it. He has 13 turnovers in the past three games to go with 19 assists. Of course, it’s easy to rack up high assist numbers when you play on one of the best jump-shooting teams in the country.

Plain and simple, the Blue Devils are much more talented than anyone else in the ACC, but it’s obvious the bigger, stronger teams that play hard-nosed defense are going to give them trouble. Maryland’s Jordan Williams scored 23 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in the Terps’ 71-64 loss at Duke on Jan. 9, and if it weren’t for early foul trouble, he may have carried Maryland to a win.

Without Irving, Duke is the third best team in the country at best. Pittsburgh and Ohio State have all the tools to beat the Blue Devils on a neutral court. There is no timetable whatsoever for Irving’s return, though it sounds like it will be a while if he ever does come back this season. What was a foregone conclusion a week ago – that Duke was a final four lock and national championship favorite – is an uncertainty today.

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Seth Greenberg won’t admit it, but he wishes he had guys like J.T. Thompson, Allan Chaney, Dorenzo Hudson and Cadarian Raines healthy and suiting up for his team.

Since mid-December, the Hokies have known they’ll be without all five players for the rest of the season, leaving them with eight healthy scholarship players.

Starting with a dicey overtime win at St. Bonaventure, the Hokies have played very well, going 5-1 including two ACC wins to level their conference record to 2-2.

Erick Green has emerged as a viable ACC point guard, and it’s completely revolutionized the Hokies’ offense.

In eight starts, he’s turned the ball over just eight times to go with 27 assists and 21 steals. He’s averaging 12.8 points per game during that span as well.

“He’s playing with great poise. He’s taking shots when they’re available. He’s making good decisions on penetration. He’s doing a great job of getting in the lane, coming to a top and making a play – or pump-faking and getting fouled. He’s another guy that’s just gaining confidence, and he’s getting us in the offense,” Greenberg said.

The biggest impact of Green’s steady play on his team has been that it’s allowed Malcolm Delaney to move freely in the offense as the shooting guard.

Since Green’s insertion to the line-up, Delaney’s turnover rate has dropped from to 5.25 per game to just two. He’s still shooting about the same rate and his scoring has dipped slightly, but the rest of the team has become much more involved with Green at the helm.

Against Wake Forest, six Hokies scored in double figures, and Delaney was not one of them. The unexpected boost in playing time for reserves like Jarrell Eddie, who scored 16 points against the Demon Deacons, is rapidly improving their confidence.

“It’s crucial. It’s really big for me just to be on the floor and get that game experience. It builds my confidence when I knock some shots down, make some plays. It’s big for me. I love it. I love being out there. When I’m on the floor, I’m happy,” Eddie said.

Nevertheless, outside of the Florida State win, none of the Hokies’ victories have been impressive. Four of their next five league games are on the road against Maryland, Georgia Tech, NC State and Boston College. That is a very difficult stretch that will define the Hokies’ season. A 2-2 record coming out of that stretch would be a successful run, while winning at least one game is a must. If the Hokies are 2-7 or 3-6 on Feb. 5, there is no chance they’ll make the NCAA Tournament.

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In North Carolina’s forgettable 2009-10 season, the start of the Tar Heels’ downfall could be pointed at a 82-79 overtime loss at College of Charleson on Jan. 4. I have a funny feeling their 78-58 point loss at Georgia Tech on Sunday could be a turning point this season in a similar manner.

The Tar Heels were lucky to win their two previous games against Virginia and Virginia Tech in which they overcame double-digit deficits in both.

Most people want to point the Heels’ struggles to the shaky point guard play by Larry Drew II, but another issue of equal impact has been Tyler Zeller’s regression since a sensational game against Kentucky. He scored 27 points with 11 rebounds and was instrumental in holding off the Wildcats late in the game by making 11 of 12 free throws.

Since that point, he’s been unable to dominate the interior offensively. The best measure of this is his average of just 5.3 trips to the foul line per game and his 12.4 points per game (down from 14.8 prior to playing Kentucky). For comparison, Tyler Hansbrough averaged 9.7 free throw attempts and 20.7 points per game during the 08-09 season.

Obviously, Zeller is not expected to be Hansbrough, but Zeller’s timidity inside has been as much of a glaring difference from the Tar Heels of old as the disparity between Ty Lawson and Drew II.

Head coach Roy Williams was as frustrated as he’s been all season following the loss to the Yellow Jackets.

“I’ve got to do a better job of getting my kids to act like it means something to them,” Williams said.

That was the exact problem that plagued the Tar Heels a year ago, and while it’s improved this year, it’s been clear this team still lacks a killer instinct that typically defines this program.

The fact that Williams came out and admitted it’s a problem might indicate it’s growing worse, and a line must be drawn in the sand. This team lacks a clear leader, which is scary for team facing a situation as adverse as this one.

Thankfully (or perhaps not), the Heels turn around quickly and play Clemson tonight at home. The Tigers are a much worse team away from home, so the Heels have an opportunity to wash the sour taste of the Georgia Tech loss from their mouths and improve to 3-1 in the ACC.

Saturday Wrap-Up for January 8th, 2010

The first Saturday of the ACC season is in the books, and there were several important lessons to take away from the five games that took place. It was an eventful day across the country with some massive upsets, but it’s hard to say anything that happened in the ACC caught anyone by great surprise.

Here’s what I took away from yesterday’s games:

Friendly confines

If Virginia hadn’t relinquished an 11-point second half lead to North Carolina, home teams would have gone a perfect 5-for-5 on Saturday. Clemson and Virginia Tech both won impressively as home underdogs, beating Miami and Florida State, respectively.

“Anybody can beat anybody in this league on any given night…well, except for one team, maybe,” Hokies’ coach Seth Greenberg said after his team knocked off Florida State 71-59. The “one” team Greenberg was alluding to was of course Duke, and it was a bit surprising to hear a coach be so blunt about a future opponent, but he’s right. Besides the Blue Devils, the ACC is a jumbled mess from teams two through nine. Georgia Tech, Virginia and Wake Forest are not going to the NCAA Tournament, period. But everyone else still has a realistic hope of making such a run.

With so many teams so close in talent and so well coached, the teams that hold serve at home will finish at the top of the board come March. Case and point in Clemson’s 79-72 win over Miami. The Tigers are an extremely tough team to beat at Littlejohn Coliseum, and they proved it by beating Miami, a noticeably weak road team. The Hurricanes had more talent, but they haven’t figured out how to succeed away from home yet – a sign of a team that’s not ready to contend in the postseason. I picked Miami at the beginning of the season to be the surprise team in the league this year, but if I could change my mind now, I think the Hurricanes could be poised for a sloppy second half of the season.

A healthy Tracy Smith and more of Ryan Harrow make NC State a contender.

NC State proved that with a healthy Tracy Smith, the Wolfpack are an NCAA Tournament-caliber team. The Wolfpack shot 58 percent from the floor in the second half to rout Wake Forest 90-69 at home. They dominated the Deacs on the glass by a 47-22 margin. The lowly Demon Deacons are hardly a barometer for how the ‘Pack stacks up with teams like Duke and North Carolina, but they are only going to get better the longer Smith is back in the lineup.

Also, Ryan Harrow played 25 minutes at the point, while Javier Gonzalez was held scoreless in just 15 minutes of action. Head coach Sidney Lowe has praised Harrow’s recent improvements on the defensive end, and it’s what’s earned Harrow the nod as State’s feature point guard.

Judging the Hokies

Seth Greenberg’s comes to the table now with a short stack, but he’s going to hold out as long as he can.  It’s well known now that the Hokies have just eight scholarship players, and are without third-team All-ACC guard Dorenzo Hudson for the rest of the season.

For the first time in his career, Greenberg played zone defense for an entire game against Florida State, and it worked to perfection. The Hokies worked back from a soft 1-2-2 three-quarter court look to a 2-3 half-court zone. They didn’t trap, but they forced Florida State to make far too many long, high-arching passes that Tech was able to deflect if not intercept. The Seminoles are already a poor shooting team, and they’ve been colder than usual lately. Coach Leonard Hamilton was disappointed in his team’s lack of ball control against a zone, and he admitted that Greenberg just unveiled the blueprint on how to beat his team until they shoot better.

Greenberg used the same basic defensive scheme the entire game, but admitted he has another couple of looks he’s ready to use when the opportunity presents itself. With virtually no bench (Tech’s starters played 87.5% of the total floor minutes Saturday), the Hokies can’t play man-to-man for long stretches of time. They ran into a perfect match-up Saturday against a poorly shooting Seminole team, but to the Hokies’ credit, they were very active defensively and didn’t seem to wear down. Tech made 34-of-37 free throws, and it was their precision from the line down the stretch that kept Florida State behind by a safe margin.

Tech’s not a typically good free throw shooting team, but if they can come close to reproducing Saturday’s effort, it will win them a ball game or two that they shouldn’t have won. There aren’t a lot of great jump shooting teams in the ACC this year, which means the Hokies should be in a lot of close games. Finally, playing exclusively zone dramatically lowers the risk of Jeff Allen getting into foul trouble. Allen has been playing the best basketball of his career over the last month, and had his best game of the year Saturday with 24 points and 11 rebounds; despite being primarily guarded by future NBA lottery pick Chris Singleton.

Tar Heel flashback

For an eight or nine-minute stretch during UNC’s 62-56 win over Virginia, the Tar Heels played their worst basketball of the year. They were held without a point for a six-minute, 55-second period that spanned both halves. Virginia was keeping the Heels from doing what they wanted to do, which was pound the ball inside. The Cavaliers’ post defenders muscled Carolina’s bigs out of the lane before they could receive the ball. That led to a barrage of jump hooks and ugly turn-around jumpers, none of which were converted.

Finally, North Carolina re-asserted itself when its outlook was bleak, and ended the game on a 30-13 run. Virginia is an incredibly streaky team, and it lived up to that billing once again on Saturday. The Cavs went on a 16-2 run to finish the first half, but went cold in the second half. They had the perfect chance to put the Tar Heels away when they were completely out of sync on offense, but the ‘Hoos only scored eight points in the first nine and a half minutes after halftime. That kept the game within reach for Tyler Zeller to lead a Carolina comeback. Zeller was the only UNC player to finish with double-figure scoring with 12 points.

Boston College rebounds

The Eagles lost a shocker at home on Wednesday to Harvard (the third straight year they’ve done so at home), but responded with their second ACC win of the year. They used a 16-4 run in the second half to separate from Georgia Tech en route to a 86-75 win.

The Eagles are a very good offensive team with tremendous balance. Reggie Jackson scored 25 points to continue his bid for first-team all-conference. He was 8-for-9 from the field in just 26 minutes. That’s efficient basketball. Corey Raji added 22 points and nine rebounds as well.

Boston College has a solid eight-man rotation that is clicking on all cylinders right now. The Harvard loss proved to be an anomaly, and the Eagles seem firmly entrenched as a top-five team in the ACC.

 

Weekend Forecast: Jan. 8th

By Saturday night, everyone in the ACC will have played at least one conference game. All 12 teams in the league will square off this weekend, including ten on Saturday before Duke and Maryland square off Sunday evening.

Here’s a quick outlook on the Saturday’s match-ups.

North Carolina at Virginia (12:00 PM, ESPN3)

The Tar Heels are on the rise. After a rough November, Roy Williams’ club went 6-1 in December, with the only loss coming on a buzzer-beater to Texas (who wiped the floor a with Big 10 favorite Michigan State a week later). Virginia is the most inconsistent team in perhaps the country.

The Cavaliers have shot 46.4 percent from the field, including 42.2 percent from beyond the arc in their 10 wins. In their five losses, however, they are 38 percent from the field and 22.5 percent from three-point range.

Since losing to Illinois on Nov. 30, UNC’s has held opponents to 23 percent three-point shooting. The Tar Heels have re-committed themselves on the defensive end and it’s paying off.

UVA expects to be without leading scorer Mike Scott (15.9 ppg) for the rest of the season with a foot injury. Without Scott, the Cavaliers will have a rough go of it throughout ACC play.

PREDICTION – North Carolina 78, Virginia 63

Wake Forest at NC State (2:30, ESPN3)

Broken record time: The Wolfpack are on the rise. Senior center Tracy Smith has returned and is, for the most part, healthy for the first time this season.

Smith’s impact will be huge in this game, as the Deacons lack any girth inside. In two games back, Smith has scored 31 points and eight rebounds in 52 minutes.

The player to watch in this game is Wolfpack backup point guard Ryan Harrow. The freshman is pushing for more playing time on a daily basis, and coach Sidney Lowe has praised his improvement on the defensive end of late. If Javier Gonzalez struggles, expect Harrow to continue to take control of the team.

Wake Forest comes in as losers in five of its last seven games. The Demon Deacons average as many rebounds (35) as they allow, which means Smith and C.J. Leslie should have a strong day.

Wake comes in ranked 217^th according to the RPI, or the ACC equivalent of the South Pole. The Deacons are so young at this point, while NC State hopes to take Smith’s return as a catalyst to a strong ACC run.

PREDICTION – NC State 75, Wake Forest 60

Florida State at Virginia Tech (3:30 ESPN2)

After the Seminoles appeared to have figured things out, they lost a shocker on Jan. 3 to Auburn, 65-60. For perspective, the Tigers opened the season with losses to UNC-Asheville, Samford, Campbell and Jacksonville in its first four games.

The Hokies, meanwhile come in winners of their last five games, but none came against ACC-worthy competition. Seth Greenberg’s squad has faced major attrition thanks to injuries and a transfer, leaving him with eight scholarship players and one true post player.

Florida State plays tremendous defense both inside and out, and its size will make it very difficult for the Hokies to get inside the paint and get good looks at the hoop.

The Seminoles can go days it seems without an effective offensive possession, though. They aren’t going to run the Hokies ragged, which means that Tech might survive with a thin rotation.

The player to watch is Tech point guard Erick Green. Green has to continue to set up his teammates as well as he’s done since entering the starting line-up.  He hasn’t faced anything close to the type of pressure he’ll face against the Seminoles.

First team to 50 points wins this game, seriously.

PREDICTION – Florida State 57, Virginia Tech 53

Georgia Tech at Boston College (4:00, No TV)

The Eagles are my sleeper pick to contend for second place in the ACC. A big reason why is Reggie Jackson, who has been lights out running point guard for Steve Donahue’s club. His 18.4 points per game ranks him third in the ACC.

The Eagles struggle mightily on the defensive end, though. They are next to last in the league in points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage.

Bad news for Georgia Tech: the Jackets are miles behind the rest of the league in shooting percentage, making just 40.7 percent of their shots from the floor.

The Eagles are playing with confidence right now, while the Jackets have absolutely no identity. Georgia Tech belongs in the group of bottom-feeders in the league along with Wake Forest and Virginia.

PREDICTION – Boston College 74, Georgia Tech 67

Miami at Clemson (6:00, ESPNU)

Last time we saw Miami, the Hurricanes were getting shown the ropes on road against Duke. Clemson, meanwhile is playing pretty good basketball right now. The Tigers are 8-1 at home this year.

Clemson leads the ACC by allowing just 58.9 points per game.

All four of Miami’s losses came on the road. The Hurricanes are the supremely talented team, but they tend to lose focus for long stretches of time, especially on the road.

I’m taking the Tigers in a mild upset.

PREDICTION – Clemson 70, Miami 67

The Morning Buzz

Alright, readers. Readership is up in the new year, and I’ve just dug a hole in my wallet for a Rivals.com subscription. I can’t make any promises, but from now on I hope to bring the morning buzz throughout the week to let you know what’s making news in the ACC.

• Miami will visit today with Marcus McDade, a 3-star pro-style quarterback prospect from Hargrave Military Academy. It seems likely that McDade will commit to the Hurricanes as soon as today and enroll in classes for the upcoming semester.
• Nolan Smith scored a career-high 33 points to guide Duke in a 85-64 home win over UAB. The Blue Devils jumped out to a 26-4 lead en route to their 14th straight victory without a loss this season.
• Virginia Tech picked up its 18th commitment in its 2011 football recruiting class, three-start tight end Darius Redman. The H.D. Woodson High School product de-committed from Virginia to choose the Hokies. He plans on enrolling for the spring semester.
• NC State topped Elon 87-72 Wednesday night. The Wolfpack got 27 minutes’ worth of action from Tracy Smith, who recently returned from injury. Smith scored 15 points and grabbed six rebounds. The ‘Pack open ACC play against Wake Forest on Saturday.
• Butch Davis has hired a new defensive line coach, according to sources close to the situation. Brian Baker comes to UNC after 15 seasons in the NFL, most recently with the Carolina Panthers. He replaces John Blake, whose connection with the NCAA’s investigation of UNC’s football program cost him his job in September.

ACC Basketball at an early crossroads

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the ACC doesn’t look so hot early on.

Following football’s cue, the ACC has flopped in just about every important game to start the season.

The league is 0-5 against ranked opponents, while also incurring losses to teams like Stetson, Kennesaw State and Yale.

Not quite what you’d expect from the supposed lifeblood of college basketball.

Larry Drew II is in danger of losing his starting job as point guard at UNC.

North Carolina, ranked eighth to start the season, is 2-2 after back-to-back losses against Minnesota and Vanderbilt. The Tar Heels have a serious lack of leadership, and Roy Williams is still trying to find a rotation in his lineup that works best.

Kendall Marshall is slowly gouging minutes from Larry Drew II at point guard, and rightfully so. Drew hasn’t improved since last season, when his lack of decision-making and quickness made him a square peg in a round hole.

Marshall isn’t much better on the quickness front, but he looks to advance the ball much quicker in transition than does Drew. Drew’s 3:2 assist-to-turnover ratio in 24 minutes per game is a red flag, compared to Marshall’s 4.5:1.8 ratio in 15 minutes per game.

While Marshall isn’t the ideal Carolina point guard (see: Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson), he’s proven already he’s a better option than Drew. Williams seems ready to go with Marshall from now on, realizing he’s the best option going forward.

As for leadership, there are really only two candidates. Tyler Zeller is the veteran presence on this team, and let’s face it, was an understudy to the best leader Carolina has maybe ever had in Tyler Hansbrough. Zeller has played too soft through four games, but for a guy who’s missed more than 30 games in two years with injuries, you can understand why.

He goes through spurts where he plays like a fire has been lit underneath him, and he just needs to let loose and do that at all times.

The other option is Harrison Barnes. He’s averaging 12.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. It’s easy to see he’s the most gifted player on the team, but some of those gifts are operating as flaws right now.

He easily has the best court vision on the team, and too often he will pass up a chance to make a play to score by finding a teammate who can’t finish it off.

He’s had an insurmountable amount of pressure put on him by the national media, and there’s no way he doesn’t feel it.

“One of my goals this season is to be on the postseason (All-America) list,” Barnes said, admitting that being named preseason All-America was a humbling honor.

Outside of Barnes, and only sometimes Zeller, there is nobody on the Heels’ squad that is a “go-to” guy. The Puerto Rico experience was invaluable for him, and the “adjustment period” that many have allowed him should be coming to a close.

It’s time for Barnes to step up and seize control of the games when the opportunity presents itself. He needs to play with a much more candid demeanor. His robotic persona and lack of killer instinct are the two biggest indicators of his youth.

He has said on numerous occasions that he’s not a leader on this team, deferring to Zeller and Drew out of respect for their accomplishments. Once he realizes that he must assume that role, his game could explode.

I believe he’s too worried about overshadowing his teammates on the court when he already does off of it. He just has to understand that he’s going to be the reason Carolina has whatever measure of success it does this season.

Virginia Tech was physically dominated in a road loss to third-ranked Kansas State

Virginia Tech was exposed on Tuesday at Kansas State in a 73-57 loss. The Hokies’ depleted frontcourt was dominated on the boards, being outrebounded 42-33.

Three players were in foul trouble, including key forwards Terrell Bell and Jeff Allen, which forced coach Seth Greenberg to use primarily zone and other junk defenses in the second half.

Until Cadarian Raines is healthy, Tech simply cannot afford foul trouble whatsoever. The starting five is going to log a lot of minutes this season, and they are going to fall apart in the second half of some important games because of it. The Wildcats outscored Tech 43-28 in the second half after leading by just one point at halftime.

The night before, Miami couldn’t get over the hump in Memphis against the 19^th-ranked Tigers. Memphis never led by more than nine, and it was a one-possession game the final three and a half minutes.

Even though the ‘Canes fell short, they looked like the second best team in the ACC on that night. They looked like they belonged to be on the floor in a tough road environment against a top-20 team. Durand Scott scored 20 points, while Reggie Johnson finished with 12 points and 12 rebounds.

On that night, Miami looked like the most balanced team in the league besides Duke.

Miami looked strong in a road loss to Memphis, but sleepwalked through a road loss to Rutgers.

However, a putrid effort from Scott and backcourt mate Malcolm Grant on Sunday led to a 61-45 loss at Rutgers. Scott and Grant scored a combined eight points and Miami shot 14-of-48 (29%) from the field.

It proved the ‘Canes aren’t that good…yet. Don’t expect a worse offensive showing from coach Frank Haith’s team again this season. They are going to be a tough out in league play.

Wake Forest is going to have a hard time winning 10 games this season. That’s right, 10. The Deacons lost by 21 to Virginia Commonwealth at home on Tuesday. Now, the Rams should be an NCAA Tournament team, but that’s no excuse for Wake to get whipped so badly at home.

Their two wins have come against Hampton by seven and Elon by 19. Non-conference games against Iowa, Xavier, Richmond and Gonzaga await. The Deacons will be lucky to be within 20 against those teams…by halftime.

Freshman point guard Tony Chennault is out for up to two months, leaving Jeff Bzdelik with no real other option at the position. The rest of the league should be able to look at Wake on their schedule and pencil it in as a W.

N.C. State was a man down this weekend at the Charleston Classic, and it caught up to them in the finals against Georgetown. Without its leader, Tracy Smith, State was borderline clueless on the offensive end when it had to score.

The Hoyas used a 15-0 run in the second half to help beat the ‘Pack 82-67. Coach Sidney Lowe used nine players, all of which played at least 16 minutes. He has decent depth, but like North Carolina with Drew, Lowe has point guard issues.

Javier Gonzalez played just 19 minutes on Sunday, and the Wolfpack had just eight assists as a team. He’s got to be average at worst for the ‘Pack to challenge at the top of the ACC, and right now he’s just not there. Once Smith returns, though, it will be a tremendous help to a very young squad.

For most of the league’s teams struggling early, it’s hardly time to panic. It’s a long season, and its up to their coaches to figure out how to fit the pieces together just right. But unless they start winning at least some prominent games, it will be up to Duke to uphold the league’s reputation by itself.

ACC Basketball Preview, Part IV – One key issue

There aren’t but a handful of people in the country who believe Duke won’t win the ACC. Beyond that, however, there is much to be decided. There’s only one place to do that – on the hardwood. Here’s a look at some of the more pressing issues facing ACC teams this season.

Boston College – Staying healthy

This is a given for 99 percent of basketball teams everywhere, but Boston College truly cannot afford any attrition. The Eagles return four starters, all of whom are proven talents. There is absolutely zero depth on this team, with only two newcomers in Steve Donahue’s first season.

Clemson – Being aggressive on the boards

For as much attention as was given to Trevor Booker, Clemson was the eighth-best rebounding team in the ACC last year. Trevor’s younger brother Devin steps into the starting lineup with high expectations. Sophomore Milton Jennings (6’9’’, 225 lbs.), a former McDonald’s All-American, must make big strides this season.

Duke – The Plumlee brothers

The pair of 6-foot-10 sophomores would be all-conference performers most anywhere else, yet they are the most glaring weakness on the preseason No. 1 team. Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas were underrated last season in their ability to set screens and rebound. That’s what the Plumlees will be asked to do this year, and more importantly, they have to be satisfied with it.

Florida State – Locking in from the outside

The Seminoles were dominant defensively last season, and they figure to be the same this year. They were one of the worst teams in the country in three-point percentage as well as free-throw percentage in 2009-10. If they can score consistently in those areas, they could be very dangerous. Delvidas Dulkys will play a huge role after shooting 40 percent from behind the arc last season. He needs a few of his teammates to help him out.

Georgia Tech – Establishing a frontcourt

The Jackets lost virtually every capable interior body from last season, including Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal. That means there has to be rapid development from seven-foot senior Brad Sheehan, who was supposed to play a larger role in 2009-10 until Favors came on board. Tech has proven commodities in the backcourt, but unless they can find some semblance of a rotation on the inside, they will struggle.

Maryland – Finding a leader

Greivis Vasquez, love him or hate him, was the unquestioned leader of the Terrapins for most of his career. Now that he’s gone, this very young team needs someone to step up and help establish its identity. Jordan Williams is the likely candidate. The 6-10, 200 lb. sophomore is the Terps’ best player, but can he be the face of the program? We’ll see.

Miami – Durand Scott

The ‘Canes have some pieces around their sophomore point guard, such as Malcolm Grant and Reggie Johnson, but they will only go as far as Scott takes them. His play was remarkable in the final 10 games of the season, and he’s got to continue that this year. He has a chance to be the leading scorer in the ACC, and for Miami to make a postseason run, he’s probably going to have to be.

North Carolina – Consistent point guard play

There are a number of issues plaguing the Heels coming into this season – lack of frontcourt depth comes to mind – but Roy Williams’ offense can only function at a high level if the point guard play is superb. Larry Drew was pedestrian by most standards, and mediocre by Carolina standards last year. It sounds like freshman Kendall Marshall is pushing Drew for playing time already. Whoever is running the show must do better than last year’s sordid output.

NC State – See North Carolina

This is easily the most talent Sidney Lowe has had at his disposal in five years at State. However, Javier Gonzalez is a downright liability at point guard. Tracy Smith, C.J. Leslie and Lorenzo Brown all have big-time potential, but their production could suffer if Gonzalez is a turnover machine. The Wolfpack were dead last in the ACC in turnover margin last season. Considering the expectations many people have for the ‘Pack this season, that can’t happen again.

Virginia – Youth

The Cavaliers will put just two returning starters on the floor to open this season off a team that was 5-11 in the ACC a year ago. K.T. Harrell is the most notable rookie, and he figures to be the team’s go-to scorer before long. Tony Bennett is trying to make a change in style at Virginia, and he’s still in the grace period when he can struggle. The Cavaliers will take their lumps this season, but they’ll be better for it down the road.

Virginia Tech – Jeff Allen’s foul total

The Hokies have already lost key frontcourt players in J.T. Thompson and Allan Chaney for the year, and they can’t afford any more injuries. Furthermore, they can’t have Jeff Allen picking up senseless fouls early on and sitting big chunks of minutes in the middle of the game. Allen is on the watch list for many pro scouts; that’s how good he can be this season. If the Hokies want to have the kind of success they expect to this season, they need Allen to be on the floor as much as possible.

Wake Forest – C.J. Harris’ back

It’s going to get awful sore this year from carrying the team. Wake lost four starters from last year, a total of nearly 46 points per game. Harris averaged 10 points per contest last season, and he’s going to have to be extremely efficient now. New coach Jeff Bzdelik is going to start true freshman Tony Chennault at the point this year, meaning Harris won’t get the same kind of looks he had last year, when the reliable Ishmael Smith was still around.

ACC Basketball Preview, Part III – Impact Freshmen

The league bolstered its talent pool this season with an impressive recruiting haul, in addition to a few key transfers who will play important roles this season. Here’s a look at the freshmen who will have a big impact on their teams and the conference:

5 – K.T. Harrell, SG, Virginia

Harrell is a versatile swingman with good length who will make an immediate impact on a depleted Cavaliers’ roster. Rated as the No. 30 player in the country by Rivals.com, Harrell figures to step into the starting lineup immediately and be a key scorer for Tony Bennett. With the loss of Sylvan Landesburg and the injury to Sammy Zeglinski, Bennett needs options on offense, and it appears that Harrell is his best bet.

4 – Reggie Bullock, SG, North Carolina

The Tar Heels sorely missed Wayne Ellington and Danny Green last season for their perimeter shooting among many other things. Will Graves was inconsistent at best from beyond the arc, and now he’s no longer with the team. That leaves Bullock and his reputation as a sharpshooter to be a key player in the Tar Heels’ offense. He won’t start early, if at all, this season, but he could have a huge impact off the bench as a threat to score in bunches.

3 – C.J. Leslie, PF, NC State

Super athletic forward who has drawn legitimate comparisons to Amare Stoudemire, Leslie will form a fearsome duo inside with All-ACC candidate Tracy Smith. His biggest impact this season could be on defense, where he is an active shot-blocker and rebounder. Smith will command plenty of double teams on the offensive end, which could free up Leslie for some huge games this season. He leads a freshman class of ‘Pack that rates among the nation’s best, and he’s a future top-five NBA draft pick.

2 – Kyrie Irving, PG, Duke

You don’t start at point guard for Duke as a freshman unless you’re very, very good. Irving is just that, as some have gone so far as to say he’s the most gifted player on a loaded Blue Devils’ roster. He has John Wall-type scoring ability, and he has Nolan Smith, Seth Curry and Kyle Singler to dish the ball off too. He could be a double-double machine, something that is rarely heard of from college point guards.

1 – Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

This is one heck of a list to top off, but Barnes fits the bill perfectly. He’s the most highly anticipated freshman at North Carolina in over a decade, and he enters the program at the perfect time. The Tar Heels lack depth in the frontcourt, yet they also don’t have a proven scorer on the wing. Barnes can do both better than just about anyone in the country. It’s a common opinion that he may be the national player of the year this season, and some believe he has the talent to take a very thin and unproven Tar Heels’ roster to the Final Four.

 

ACC Basketball Preview, Part II – Top 10 Non-Conference Games

10 – Temple at Duke (Feb. 23, 7:00)

This late-season interconference game won’t mean much to the Blue Devils, who barring a catastrophe should be a No. 1 seed. For Temple, however, this is the Owls’ last chance to polish their at-large bid resume should they not win the Atlantic 10. Temple has won three straight conference championships and return four starters from a team that finished 29-6 a year ago.

9– Gonzaga at Wake Forest (Jan. 2, 1:00)

The Demon Deacons will have a few strong tests before then, namely a potential Preseason NIT semifinal/finals appearance, but facing the Bulldogs at home around New Year’s is a tough test. The Bulldogs no longer have Matt Bouldin, but Robert Sacre is a potential All-American at center. Also, Steven Gray is a rangy guard that could prove tough for Wake to defend.

8 – Georgia at Georgia Tech (Dec. 7, 7:00)

Mark Fox has already done wonders for the Georgia program, and if the Yellow Jackets aren’t careful, this game could signal a shift in the balance of power in the Peach State. Trey Thompkins is a former McDonald’s All-American and is the SEC’s returning leader in both scoring (17.7 ppg) and rebounding (8.3 rpg). The Jackets have to replace four key players off of last year’s team, which underperformed still. Georgia is young, talented and more than capable of beating the Yellow Jackets by 20 if they aren’t careful.

7 – NC State at Syracuse (Dec. 4, 5:30)

The Wolfpack have several stiff tests in the non-conference slate, but a trip to the Carrier Dome is toughest of all. The ‘Pack will be just three days removed from a road game against Wisconsin, meaning they face two of the toughest teams to prepare for in America within 72 hours. The Orange don’t have Wesley Johnson any more, but veteran starter Rick Jackson and 7’0’’ highly touted freshman center Fab Melo will be a handful for C.J. Leslie and Tracy Smith inside.

6 – Purdue at VT (Dec. 1, 7:30)

This game was a lot more intriguing before Robbie Hummel and J.T. Thompson were both lost for the year with ACL injuries. Still, this is a battle of preseason top 25 teams and a chance for the Hokies to prove they belong in the conversation as an ACC contender. Seth Greenberg was criticized heavily for playing a weak schedule last season, so he loaded up the non-conference slate this time around. Now he has to face the music.

5 – Maryland at Villanova (Jan. 15, 1:00)

The Terps have some important games earlier in the year, like Pittsburgh (in Madison Square Garden) and Temple (in Washington, D.C.). But this is the easily the biggest road test for Gary Williams’ squad outside the conference. Both teams will have had two months to adjust to life without all-world point guards in Greivis Vasquez and Scottie Reynolds. The cupboard is hardly bare at either program, however. Maryland’s Jordan Williams and Villanova’s Corey Fisher are poised for breakout seasons.

4 – VT at Kansas State (Nov. 16, 4:00)

This is the first of Greenberg’s “resume building” games, and it comes very, very quickly. This is just the Hokies’ second game of the season, and it comes in the vaunted “Octagon”, K-State’s home gym that has proved to be a death trap for visitors under Frank Martin. The Wildcats lost shooting guard Denis Clemente to graduation, but 2010 Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year Jamar Samuels is a budding star. Samuels averaged 11 points and five rebounds per game off the bench last season. The backcourt battle between Jacob Pullen and Malcolm Delaney is as good as you’ll see at any time this season.

3 – Duke vs. Butler In East Rutheford, NJ (Dec. 4, 3:15)

Rematch of last year’s epic national championship game. Butler will sorely miss Gordon Heyward’s presence this season, but the Bulldogs still return four starters and will surely be out for revenge in this game. Shelvin Mack is a future pro at guard, and center Matt Howard is looking to have a strong finish to a great career. There are only a few games on the Blue Devils’ schedule that don’t appear to be a lock for them to win, and this is one of them. Foes need to seize that opportunity.

2 – Kentucky at North Carolina (Dec. 4, 12:30)

The best young players in America will take the floor in this game. Harrison Barnes is a preseason All-American despite never playing a minute of college basketball in his career. Brandon Knight doesn’t quite have the hype that John Wall did as the Wildcats’ freshman point guard last year, but he’s widely regarded as one of the five best recruits in this year’s incoming class. This is the Tar Heels’ first opportunity to re-assert themselves as a top-10 program. Besides from this contest, Carolina doesn’t face as murderous of a non-conference slate as usual.

1 – Michigan State at Duke (Dec. 1, 9:30)

We may witness at national championship game preview in this ACC-Big 10 Challenge contest. Kalin Lucas is healthy again, something that likely cost the Spartans the chance to knock off the Blue Devils in last year’s NCAA Tournament. He needs to take advantage of freshman phenom Kyrie Irving, who won’t have faced a player anywhere close to Lucas before this game. Cameron Indoor Stadium will be rocking for this potential Nos. 1-2 matchup.

ACC Basketball Preview, Part I – Top 10 Players

We are only six days from the start of the ACC basketball season (Maryland vs. Seattle on Nov. 8).

As a forgettable football season for the league hits the home stretch, the attention shifts to the conference’s calling card.

In part one of my preview of the basketball season, I’m taking a look at the ten players who I think will have the biggest impact on the league this season.

10 – Durand Scott, PG, Miami

By the end of the 09-10 season, Scott was Miami’s best offensive weapon. He was 10-of-15 from the field and scored 21 points against Duke in the ACC Championship Game. Over the last eight games of last season, Scott averaged 15.5 points per game. He is an aggressive point guard who lives up to the rugged style of his New York upbringing. If he develops a better jump shot, he is a future ACC scoring champion.

9 – Dorenzo Hudson, SG, Virginia Tech

Hudson made tremendous improvement from his sophomore to his junior year, increasing his scoring output by more than 10 points per game. His 41-point showing against Seton Hall in the absence of Malcolm Delaney proved that he could be a dominant player. Having opposing defenses concentrate on Delaney should open up plenty of scoring chances for Hudson this season. He is also arguably the best perimeter defender in the conference.

8 – Kyrie Irving, PG, Duke

Irving was the consensus top-ranked point guard nationally in the incoming freshman class. Coach Mike Krzyzewski has compared him to a young Chris Paul. How good is that? Well, Paul averaged 15 points, six assists and three rebounds per game in his freshman year – and he didn’t have a couple of All-Americans alongside him.

7 – Jordan Williams, PF, Maryland

Williams came on strong in ACC play last season as an enforcing presence inside that Maryland had not seen arguably since the Lonny Baxter/Chris Wilcox era. The departure of Grevis Vasquez means Williams will undoubtedly improve on his 9.6 points per game from last year. He also averaged 8.6 rebounds per game while finishing second in the balloting for ACC Rookie of the Year in 09-10. He could very well be a double-double guy on a nightly basis this season.

6 – Chris Singleton, PF, Florida State

Singleton was a bit of a surprise on the preseason All-ACC ballot, but make no mistake about it, he’s got the tools to be the best player in the league. His 10.2 points and seven rebounds per game last season weren’t mind-blowing, but something to consider is that he had to compete with his own teammate, Solomon Alabi, for rebounds last season. This year, Singleton has to prove he can be a force on the glass. He’s well-known for his defensive skills, and he’ll have plenty of chances to prove himself against some highly skilled post players in the ACC.

5 – Tracy Smith, PF, NC State

Smith is quite probably the most underrated player in the league entering this season. He’s made tremendous strides every year under Sidney Lowe, and don’t be surprised if he puts up monster numbers as a senior. He averaged 16 points and seven rebounds a year ago, and he now has the addition of ultra-talented freshman C.J. Leslie to the frontcourt. Smith should hover around 20-22 points and 10-12 rebounds on most nights, which is enough to earn some hardware at season’s end and a nice paycheck come next summer.

4 – Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

Barnes is the most highly anticipated freshman in Chapel Hill since Vince Carter. Perhaps part of that is due to the Tar Heels’ dire need for an extreme bounce-back season after last year’s 17-loss debacle. The other part of it is that Barnes is just freakishly good. His physical tools have led some experts to make Kobe Bryant/Tracy McGrady comparisons, while his head coach Roy Williams has compared his work ethic to that of Tyler Hansbrough’s. Needless to say, Barnes better make this year count, because it’s going to be his only one in Carolina blue.

3 – Malcolm Delaney, PG, Virginia Tech

Delaney is back after leading the league in scoring as a junior at 20.2 points per game. He wilted down the stretch when teams starting defending him more physically and his jump shot suffered dramatically. However, he’s stronger this year and for what it’s worth, undyingly motivated to lead his team to a serious run in the NCAA Tournament. The emergence of Hudson last year means that teams likely won’t be able to afford being so aggressive against Delaney with ball pressure, so a repeat 20-plus scoring season isn’t much of a stretch to predict. As much talent as the Hokies have this year, they’ll only go as far as Delaney takes them.

2 – Nolan Smith, SG, Duke

Smith is your typical Blue Devil guard. He doesn’t blow you away on the stat sheet with hoards of points, but at the end of the day, he’s extremely efficient. He doubled his scoring average last season to 17 points per game, but the departure of Jon Scheyer means that it’s up to Smith to be the Devils’ leader in the backcourt. As Irving learns the ropes early on this season, Smith will have to shoulder a heavier load than he ever has had to before. Something tells me he can handle it. Once Irving adapts to the ACC style of play, Smith should flourish with ease.

1 – Kyle Singler, SF, Duke

Singler is many experts’ choice for the national player of the year, and rightfully so. He is a nightmare for opposing coaches to try and defend. His size makes it tough for average-sized small forwards to guard him, yet put a power forward or a center on him and Singler is quick enough to beat them off the dribble. He truly rounded out his game last season, and this year is more of an audition to the NBA scouts that he can play at the next level. The loss of Scheyer means Singler should see more looks at the basket, and should probably score around 22 points per game, not to mention 7-9 rebounds as well. The thing about Duke is that they are impossible for opponents to match up against effectively. There will be nights when teams take Singler out of the game, but the nights when they don’t are when he will have monstrous performances.