Finding a comparison for Logan Thomas

While Cam Newton was trucking through the Southeastern Conference, putting the Auburn Tigers on his back en route to the 2011 National Championship, I couldn’t help but wonder if that’s what Logan Thomas was capable of as well.

Thomas, the redshirt sophomore who is set to become the next starting quarterback at Virginia Tech, measures up with Newton so well on paper it’s scary. Both have 6-6, 250-pound frames with sub-4.6 40-yard dash times and 40-inch vertical leaps.

ESPN Insider Bruce Feldman went so far as to call Thomas a “Cam Newton Clone” in an off-season mailbag blog.

Obviously, expecting Thomas to have a Newton-like impact on the upcoming season was a pipe dream; a virtually impossible concept.

After watching Thomas this spring and hearing what people close to the program have to say about his progress, there is a more realistic comparison to be made. It’s not too shabby, either.

Thomas is eerily similar to former Kansas State and current Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback Josh Freeman. Freeman has the same gargantuan frame as Thomas, along with a comparable style of play.

The Hokies’ cupboard is bare in terms of backup quarterback options, which means designed runs for Thomas will be few and far between.

Freeman was in a similar position at Kansas State. He started midway through his freshman season and left for the NFL after his junior year.

Unlike Thomas, Freeman was a highly coveted quarterback out of high school, ranked as high as the No. 4 pro-style QB by Rivals.com.

Thomas was a 5-star “athlete” prospect, and was widely projected as a tight end in college. From day one in Blacksburg, however, Thomas was thrust under center, immediately deemed as the eventual heir to Tyrod Taylor.

Despite the fact that Freeman was supposed to be a quarterback all along, he was anything but a polished product at any point in his collegiate career.

Thomas will be the same way. He played quarterback in high school out of necessity, using a thin playbook and never really learned the nuances of the position until he came to Tech.

In just two scrimmages this spring, the strides he has made are remarkable. He’s patient in the pocket, sets his feet for basically every throw, and has impressive touch on deeper throws. He’s by no means perfect, but for a player who is supposed to be so raw, it’s a huge sign of encouragement.

Freeman was a career 59 percent passer with a 44-34 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 20 rushing touchdowns (including 14 in his junior season). There isn’t anything eye-popping about those numbers, but when you consider he completed just 52 percent of his passes with a 6-15 TD-INT ration as a freshman, it speaks to his growth over time.

Even as he left for the NFL, Freeman didn’t have the numbers to warrant a first-round draft selection, but that’s exactly what he was.

Thomas has similar potential. He won’t be as miserable as Freeman was in his freshman season, nor will he likely be as productive as Freeman was as a junior.

However, with a veteran offensive line, receiving corps, and a potential All-American running back in David Wilson, Thomas has a far superior level of support than Freeman ever had at K-State. Which is why his numbers in 2011 might be prettier than people expect.

Thomas is a natural born leader and his teammates respond quite well to him. He clearly has put in the time and effort to prepare himself to be the starting quarterback for the Hokies next season.

He’s spent the past two and half years in Blacksburg with as much attention as any backup quarterback/H-back has ever faced. Saturday’s spring game will be a huge step for him as all eyes will be on him to have a great day. With great expectations comes great pressure, and that’s what Thomas will have to show he can handle.

What Thomas has that Freeman, Newton and other former first-round draft picks like Vince Young have is the elite-level body that can not be coached. That is why Thomas has a brighter future playing football than his predecessor, Taylor.

That spells trouble for the rest of the country.

Here’s a look at what you should expect to see from Thomas this season:

Stanford 13, Virginia Tech 12 — Halftime Analysis

The back-and-forth tussle in the Orange Bowl is still up for grabs. Neither team has been particularly sharp tonight, but both defenses are working hard to give their prolific offenses a chance.

The Hokies took the lead at 9-7 when Tyrod Taylor performed a perfect pirouette on the sideline and lined a rope to a diving David Wilson in the end zone. It was a play that evoked even the fondest memory of when Michael Vick was in a Tech uniform.

Stanford answered when Andrew Luck connected with Zach Ertz to put Stanford back on top 13-9. Ertz slid inside Davon Morgan on a skinny post for an easy score. The pass came two plays after Morgan was a step slow in his pursuit of Jeremy Stewart on a running play to the left side, which earned him 26 yards.

The special teams edge has been heavily in favor of the Hokies. Stanford was jammed on a fake punt attempt in the first quarter, followed by a very questionable decision by Cardinal punt returner Drew Terrell to field a punt inside his own five-yard line, which factored into the safety on that drive. After the Luck-to-Ertz touchdown pass, John Graves broke through and blocked the extra-point kick, which could come back to haunt Stanford.

The biggest play of the quarter came when Jayron Hosley made his FBS-leading ninth interception of the season on Luck. Tech brought just five players in pressure and matched up with Stanford in man coverage on the outside. Hosley makes a killing in those situations, and it stifled the Cardinals’ hopes at taking a two-score lead late in the first half.

On the final drive of the half, the Hokies perfectly managed the clock during a 60-yard, 44-second drive that resulted in a 37-yard Chris Hazley field goal. Taylor scrambled for 19 yards and completed a 32-yard pass to Jarrett Boykin that moved the Hokies into scoring position.

In the big picture, though, Tech has put themselves in far too many third and long situations. The Hokies have faced third down and 6, 8, 11, 20, 6, 11, 8, and 9 yards. Tech’s ineffectiveness running the ball has made it difficult for Taylor, forcing him to try and pick apart a soft Stanford defense –which his not his strength.

If Virginia Tech wants to recover from this deficit and snatch the victory, its offensive line needs to impose its will and give Tech manageable situations on second and third down. Look to see more of the option from the shotgun in the second half. In its lone appearance tonight, it produced a nine-yard gain by Darren Evans. Stanford’s defense is not great in space, and would have trouble defending the faster Tech offense.

 

Stanford 7, Virginia Tech 2 – First Quarter Analysis

After one quarter at the Orange Bowl, Stanford leads Virginia Tech 7-2.

The game is a virtual deadlock, with one key mistake from the Hokies proving costly. Jermey Stewart dashed 60 yards off the left side for a touchdown midway through the quarter. The Hokies had the play smothered at the point of attack except for former walk-on freshman linebacker Jack Tyler, who overran the hole that Stewart blew through and raced away untouched for the score.

Tyler made a huge stop on the Cardinal’s first possession with a tackle in the backfield on a similar run play. He’s played much better than a freshman walk-on should play this season when called upon, but the Hokies can ill-afford mistakes like that.

The Hokies’ defense is holding strong early, especially in downfield coverage. Luck has not been able to find anything open beyond the first-down marker. Tech’s defensive line has made a great push against the Cardinal’s offensive front, which was supposed to have the upper hand in this matchup.

Besides the touchdown run, Stanford has made no traction on the ground. The best display of the defensive front was late in the quarter when it forced Andrew Luck into a safety.

Offensively, Tech was forced into consecutive three-and-outs to start the game, but have begun to gain traction. Tyrod Taylor is struggling in the pocket early. He’s been apprehensive and inaccurate from the pocket, but has hurt Stanford with his legs, rushing for 26 yards on three carries.

The late safety seems to have swung the momentum the Hokies’ way, let’s see if they capitalize.

 

Virginia Tech – Stanford: pre-game keys

We’re closing in on kickoff of the Discover Orange Bowl, where No. 13 Virginia Tech will face off with No. 4 Stanford in Miami.

The Hokies enter the game as a 3.5-point underdog, despite riding an 11-game winning streak.

Both teams are among the most disciplined in the country with two highly respected coaches in Tech’s Frank Beamer and Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh.

The game figures to come down to the wire in the most highly anticipated bowl game for the Hokies since the 2004 Sugar Bowl (16-13 loss to Auburn).

Here’s a look at what Virginia Tech has to do if it wants to win its second Orange Bowl in three years.

1. Don’t fall behind early

The Hokies have fallen behind by double-digits in the first quarter eight times this season. Hard to believe they’re 11-2 given that number. Stanford meanwhile averaged 1.6 touchdowns in the first quarter this year.

Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck has been flawless early on in games. His first-quarter numbers this year: 12 touchdowns, zero interceptions, 998 yards and a 73.3 completion percentage. Luck is the hub of the wheel that spins the Cardinal, and the Hokies can’t afford to let him get Stanford rolling out of the gates.

Nickel back Antone Exum – a key defensive contributor in passing situations – is suspended for the first quarter after missing curfew on New Year’s Eve. He’ll be replaced by true freshman Kyle Fuller. Fuller played very well all season, but struggled in his biggest test to date in the ACC Championship Game against Florida State.

2. Establish the running game

The outstanding depth of the Hokies’ backfield is well-known, however it is a little thinner than usual tonight. Darren Evans will start at running back, while Ryan Williams will play despite re-aggravating a lingering hamstring injury during bowl practice.

Associate head coach Billy Hite said Williams will play barring any setbacks in pre-game warm-ups, but it sounds like Williams’ production will be limited tonight. The Hokies were a scoring machine when he was injured in the middle of the season, but no one can argue that when he was back in the rotation towards the end of the season he took the offense to another gear.

David Wilson was with Exum on New Year’s Eve and will also miss the first quarter, meaning it will be up to Evans to get the ball rolling for Tech. This should scare Hokie fans. Does offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring rely on the passing game early on with only one healthy running back? Tech has had the most success this year when it has used a heavy dose of the running game to set up the pass.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is a much more efficient passer in the second and third quarter this season (156.63 and 194.5 passer rating, respectively) than he has been in the first (136.9 rating).

If Stinespring suddenly loses faith in Evans to shoulder a heavier load tonight than he has all season, it could cost the Hokies. Having three running backs to rotate all season has been a luxury. Evans set the school record for rushing yards by a freshman in 2008 when he was all alone in the Hokies’ backfield. He’s yet to carry the ball more than 15 times in a game this year. If Tech wants to control the game and keep the ball away from Stanford’s 40-plus points per-game offense, Evans will have to touch the ball more tonight than he has all season.

3. Win the turnover battle

Tech has transformed its defense from a mistake-prone unit to one of the most opportunistic defenses Bud Foster has ever coached. Tech led the nation in interceptions during the regular season with 22. Their 30 total takeaways are currently tied for eighth in the country.

Foster thrives on devising complex zone blitz schemes to rattle young quarterbacks. Tonight, he faces the stingiest of opponents in the future NFL star Luck. He has been incredibly well protected all season. The Cardinal is tied with Air Force for fewest sacks allowed this season (and the Falcons should hardly count, considering they pass about twice a month).

It might be hard for Foster to create a lot of pressure on Luck, so he’s going to have to rely heavily on the back end of his defense to hold up in coverage. He’s got Rashad Carmichael back at full health after a late-season ankle sprain, which will help. Jayron Hosley leads the country with eight interceptions, and he’d love nothing more than to tie or break the school record of nine tonight.

Stanford has turned the ball over just 15 times all season, and just four in its last six games. Many of the Hokies’ wins this season have been sealed by key takeaways in the fourth quarter (Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, NC State). If the Hokies win tonight, expect Foster’s unit to come up big late yet again.

PREDICTION –

Both teams are extremely confident yet with the utmost respect for their opponent. Both teams have had their fair share of unwanted distractions this week.

Harbaugh has had to constantly fend off questions about vacant coaching jobs, both in college and the NFL. Luck is considered the front-runner for the top pick in the NFL Draft, should the sophomore decide to leave (a decision which is rumored to be closely tied to whether or not Harbaugh stays at Stanford).

Beamer had the Exum/Wilson suspension to deal with, as well as having to send six scout team players home for an undisclosed violation of team rules (all I’ve been told is they were out past curfew). Even if those particular players have no output on the game, it’s a situation on the team that Beamer surely wanted no part of dealing with this week.

And of course, there’s the constant question of the future of Williams and Evans with the program. Both have filed paperwork to the NFL Draft, and as I’ve said before, everything I’ve heard for people who know Williams best say he’s leaving. The dynamic will be interesting tonight with Williams needing a good showing for the draft scouts while playing through the pain of the injury that potentially cost him millions of dollars.

Which team manages those off-field distractions best will likely hoist the championship trophy late tonight.

Beamer made a significant change in the program’s approach to bowl games two seasons ago, and it produced back-to-back wins. He’s made it clear that the Hokies are in Miami on a mission. This is the seventh postseason game the senior class will have played in for Tech – and the first for Stanford. I give the slight edge to the old guard.

HOKIES 34, Cardinal 31

Enjoy the game!

Taylor unstoppable as Hokies claim fourth ACC championship

This blog post originally appeared on my other site for Hokie football – http://representacc.com/blogs/vt/2010/12/06/taylor-unstoppable-in-hokies-championship-run/

Tyrod Taylor has been tied to some lofty comparisons while at Virginia Tech.

It’s a common sight on the Blacksburg campus to find a student wearing a maroon and orange Superman t-shirt with Taylor’s jersey number, five, superimposed over the letter “S”.

Taylor fit the bill on Saturday night, leaving no doubt he was the best player in the ACC this season with a legendary championship game performance, as Virginia Tech beat Florida State 44-33 in Charlotte.

“He gives you a chance to win every Saturday,” head coach Frank Beamer said, “We’re fortunate to have Tyrod.”

If the Hokies didn’t, they wouldn’t have been the first team to go undefeated in league play in a decade, or win three conference titles in four years. His stat line – 18-of-28 passing, 263 yards, four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) – does not come close to justifying the zone he was in all night.

On his first touchdown pass of the game, he spun away from the Florida State pass rush, turning his back to the end zone before finding Jarrett Boykin for a 19-yard touchdown pass. And that was only a snapshot of what Taylor was about to do.

He spent most of the third quarter twisting around the maze of Seminole defenders in the backfield, leaving a wake of garnet and gold jerseys as he led the Hokies on two scoring drives to put them ahead 35-24 at the end of the period.

Despite Taylor’s efforts, Florida State never truly faded from the game until late. With 11:29 left in the fourth quarter, the Hokies faced a third-and-goal from the five-yard line. Taylor took a shotgun snap and rolled to his right but found no one to throw to. He reversed directions and darted for the left side of the end zone. Two Seminole defenders appeared to have him dead in his tracks, when Taylor juked back to the right once again and literally walked across the goal line.

“Sometimes I’m running and I don’t even know where I’m going. I trust my feet,” Taylor said.

The difference between Taylor circa 2010, and Taylor circa 2007-2009, is there were times when not only did he trust his feet, but he unnecessarily relied on them. He rarely seemed comfortable as a dropback passer, and he was quick to tuck the ball and run for his life.

This year, Taylor was as complete of a quarterback as the Hokies have ever had. His 23 touchdown passes were three more than he threw in his first three seasons combined.

“He’s been a lot more accurate this year and he trusts us a lot more when we go up for passes. That makes us a whole lot more confident,” Boykin said.

At Tech, the standard for quarterbacks will always be Michael Vick and what he accomplished in 1999-2000. His highlight package runs longer than “Titanic,” and despite an illustrious career, Taylor was never truly out of Vick’s shadow.

There was nothing to separate Taylor on Saturday night from Vick at any point in his career.

“We’ve been fortunate to have some great quarterbacks at Virginia Tech, and Tyrod is right there,” Beamer said.

If the Hokies didn’t lose to FCS foe James Madison on Sept. 11, it’s not crazy to think that Taylor would be in New York next week for the Heisman Trophy presentation.

The notoriety that would have come with playing quarterback on a top-10 team would have been far greater than being unranked for several weeks in the middle of the season. Taylor’s name would have been mentioned in the same breath as Stanford’s Andrew Luck and Boise State’s Kellen Moore. Instead, it’s only now that the country is realizing just how good Taylor’s been this season.

“(Taylor)’s meant a lot to Virginia Tech, there’s no question about that,” Beamer said.

Taylor has one game left – the Orange Bowl against No. 4 Stanford on Jan. 3 – to cement his legacy as having arguably the greatest career of any Tech quarterback.

This season’s loss to James Madison and Vick’s trip to the national championship game are clearly the pair’s biggest points of difference, but as for an overall career, it’s hard to knock Taylor for what he’s done.

With three conference titles and the all-time school passing record, Taylor’s legacy should lock arms with Vick’s ‘til kingdom come.

“I hope they don’t forget about me,” Taylor said.

Unless Clark Kent makes a verbal commitment, no Hokies’ fan ever will.

Football weekend wrap-up: November 20

One division title was decided on Saturday, while the other saw its race whittled down to two teams.

Virginia Tech overcame a slow start to dominate Miami in the second half, winning 31-17 on the road. It was the Hokies’ ninth straight win; their longest streak since 1999.

With the Coastal Division in hand, they will face Virginia next Saturday for a chance to become the first team to run the table in the ACC since 2000.

Ryan Williams said his hamstring wouldn’t be 100 percent until he could rest it after the season. Whatever percent it is now, it’s still better than just about anyone else. Williams showed the explosiveness that made him a preseason Heisman Trophy candidate with a 142-yard, two-touchdown output.

The day kicked off with a thrilling rivalry game between North Carolina and NC State. The Wolfpack trailed 19-10 in the third quarter, but came back to win 29-25. They had to hold on late when North Carolina scored to come within two points, but a failed two-point conversion try left NC State standing.

The win moved the Wolfpack to 5-2 in ACC play, tied with Florida State for the time being.

The Seminoles edged Maryland in a tough environment, 30-16. The Terps were knocking on the door in the final minute down a touchdown, but Nick Moody intercepted a Danny O’Brien pass and returned it 96 yards for a touchdown.

Banged-up FSU quarterback Christian Ponder completed 16-of-26 passes for 170 yards and a touchdown. It was the Seminoles’ defense, however, that won the game. Mark Stoops’ unit forced four turnovers despite giving up 432 yards of total offense.

Maryland’s hopes for an improbable ACC title run were shattered with the loss, while Florida State now must hope the Terrapins can play spoiler next week against the Wolfpack. If NC State beats Maryland, the ‘Pack will play in their first ever conference championship game. If not, the Seminoles will face the Hokies on Dec. 4 in Charlotte.

Granted, there’s still a week left, but you’ve got to hand it to the Tar Heels. Despite all the turmoil, not to mention severe attrition of key players, they’ve been competitive every week. Of their five losses, three have come by six points or less. It’s a bit of a backhanded compliment, but Butch Davis was pretty darn good at keeping his team afloat despite the chaos surrounding his team.

The ACC Player of the Year appeared to be locked up a few weeks ago; and it would belong to Tyrod Taylor. Over the past three weeks, Taylor has cooled off significantly. In that span, he’s completed 35-of-67 passes (52%) with four touchdowns. He’s also only rushed for 62 yards in that time. He’s still the front-runner because of the plays he makes that don’t show up in the stat book.

Headed in the opposite direction, however, is Boston College’s Montel Harris, who continued his streak of 100-yard rushing games in the Eagles’ 17-13 win over Virginia.

Through five games, Harris averaged just 77 yards per game. Since then, he’s gained 142.6 yards per game and scored seven touchdowns. He’s the reason Boston College has won four straight games and is bowl eligible for the 13^th straight season. Linebacker Luke Kuechly may bring home more hardware this winter, but if it weren’t for Harris, the Eagles would never have been 6-5 today.

Doomsday

Whoever this guy Murphy is has some competition for the naming rights to his law.

Anything that could go wrong for the ACC did, and at the worst possible moment.

On a day when the two most prominent match-ups featured the most storied programs in the conference clamoring to reach the top of college football once more, both were annihilated.

Also, the conference favorite lost – to an FCS school, the second time a ranked team has lost such a game in the history of the sport.

So did the defending league champion – to school which failed to produce a touchdown in a loss to another FCS school the week before.

A season full of hope suddenly became one on the verge of disaster.

Five teams were ranked in the preseason AP top 25 poll, the most in six years. Only one remains, and not a single one has a winning record.

Look at it this way. Miami failed to score an offensive touchdown until the fourth quarter and threw four interceptions in a 36-24 loss at Ohio State, and they had the best day of the perceived “contenders” in the ACC.

Meanwhile, Florida State was getting beaten like a drum in Norman, Okla. by the Sooners.

Bob Stoops made mince meat of his brother’s defense at FSU, putting up 487 yards of total offense and 47 points on the Seminoles.

Entering the year, for Miami and Florida State to take the “next step” in rebuilding their respective programs, it was clear where they had to improve. Clearly neither has.

Miami is still undisciplined on offense. Head coach Randy Shannon admitted to several communication errors between the receivers and quarterback Jacory Harris on Saturday. That shouldn’t happen with an experienced group of pass-catchers and a seasoned veteran under center. That falls on not only the players, but the coaching staff as well. There is more than a simple problem down in Coral Gables.

Florida State had to revamp a defense that ranked at or near the bottom of the ACC in every category last season. A scheme that worked for three decades under Mickey Andrews suddenly failed for one year. Sounds like a personnel problem, rather than a coaching problem to me.

Mark Stoops clearly hasn’t made the impact head coach Jimbo Fisher thought he would as the new coordinator. Landry Jones torched the Seminole secondary for 380 yards and four touchdowns, succinctly shredding the supposed vaunted zone defense Stoops brought with him to Tallahassee.

Even Christian Ponder, the face of Florida State (and for that matter, ACC) football struggled mightily against a Sooner defense that is nothing remarkable. Ponder had perhaps the worst game of his career, completing just 11 of 28 passes and throwing two interceptions. It’s not going to be a fun week in Florida, that’s for sure.

Georgia Tech thought it could survive without the likes of Derrick Morgan, Morgan Burnett, Jonathan Dwyer, and Demaryius Thomas – all key components of last year’s ACC Championship team currently in the NFL. The Jacket’s can’t.

Joshua Nesbitt is still the same run-first quarterback with no ability to throw the football. He was bailed out time after time last year by Thomas catching deep balls like he was the world champion of “500″.

There is no such deep threat this year, rendering the Jackets so one-dimensional its criminal.

Kansas loaded the box and demolished the Jackets’ running game. When they had to play catch-up late in the game, Nesbitt was inept. He finished the game with five completions on fifteen attempts.

The Jackets’ did run for 291 yards, but most of that came between the 20-yard lines. They couldn’t cash in when it mattered most, in the red zone.

Georgia Tech is going to have a hard time winning games this year if they can’t grind it out near the end zone, or have some semblance of a passing game.

The most embarrassing loss of all came in Blacksburg, where Virginia Tech shockingly lost its first non-conference home game in its last 33 tries to FCS foe James Madison.

The Hokies struggled to tackle on a wet field, and the offensive line failed to open holes for its star running backs or protect Tyrod Taylor.

The Hokies succumbed to the hangover of the Boise State loss just five days earlier, and a drowsy environment inside Lane Stadium doomed the preseason sixth-ranked team in the coaches’ poll.

The most impressive game of the day came in the still of the night, when Virginia played inspired football in a 17-14 loss to USC. The Cavaliers were missing star cornerback Ras-I Dowling, yet still managed to keep the Trojans’ talented offense in check all night.

Mike London is doing wonders as Virginia’s new head coach. The spirit surrounding that program is at a level not felt in more than a decade. The Cavaliers have inferior talent to just about anyone in the ACC, yet they are playing better and more confidently than most of the league.

When the perennial cellar-dweller of your league carries the conference banner for the weekend, 99 percent of the time it’s a terrible thing. That’s the case this week, when the ACC didn’t just come to a standstill, but was launched backward in its climb to gain national respect.

On the Docket: Labor Day Special

Maryland vs. Navy (in Baltimore), 4:00, ESPN

Why it matters: Maryland is trying to erase the memory of last year’s 2-10 finish. Navy has its sights set on more than another nine or 10-win season. Terps’ coach Ralph Friedgen is on the hot seat, and a poor showing against the Midshipmen would make the pressure near unbearable. Navy quarterback Ricky Dobbs is an extreme darkhorse candidate for the Heisman Trophy, he could use a fast start on national television to boost his profile.

Player to Watch: Da’Rel Scott missed half of last season with a broken wrist, and he never really reached the form of his 2008 season when he earned All-ACC honors with 1,133 yards and eight rushing touchdowns. He is the key to Maryland’s offense, especially in the early part of the season while new quarterback Jamarr Robinson gets settled.

Who has the edge?

Navy returns almost its entire running game from a year ago, but it must replace seven starters on defense. Dobbs’ presence gives the Midshipmen the advantage, but Maryland’s run defense was the strongest part of the team last year and it should be better in 2010. The Terrapins played with a lack of heart at times last year, but don’t expect to see too much quit in them today.

Prediction: Navy 31, Maryland 21

Virginia Tech vs. Boise State (in Washington, DC), 8:00 p.m., ESPN

Why it matters: It’s one of two games this weekend matching two top-25 teams, and the only one with two teams in the top 10. Boise State knows a loss will all but eliminate them from the national title hunt. This game is also one more opportunity for the Broncos to prove they belong on a stage like this one. The Hokies have lost a marquee game in the first or second game of the season three years in a row, and have been hearing about it for nine months now. If Frank Beamer wants to take his program to the next level, the Hokies need to start by winning this game.

Player to watch: Kellen Moore put up mind-boggling numbers as the Broncos’ quarterback last season, throwing for 39 touchdowns with just three interceptions. From the returning players offensively, they have 100 percent of last year’s rushing yards and 98 percent of last year’s receiving yards accounted for. Moore has weapons. The Hokies’ defense is throwing seven new starters into the fire to try and contain Moore and the Broncos’ complex offense. Moore has to capitalize on the Hokies’ inexperience to give the Broncos a chance.

Who has the edge? This game is a virtual dead heat. The Broncos are more experienced, but the Hokies are playing at nearby FedExField, which one Tech player described as “like Lane stadium plus 20,000 people.” The Hokies have as much talent offensively as Boise, it’s just a matter of producing. Granted, the Broncos did lead the nation with 42 points per game last season – but they played in the WAC. Both teams are extremely well-coached. Frank Beamer is a legend, but Petersen is one of the best young minds in all of college football. It’s going to be a shootout, but take the Hokies and the home field advantage.

Prediction:

Virginia Tech 38, Boise State 28

The Crystal Ball – How the ACC will fare in 2010

After all the waiting, the season is upon us. This Thursday, the college football season will officially begin. And it begins with Wake Forest hosting Presbyterian at 6:30, the first game to kick off the 2010 season.

That also means it’s about time to make an idiot out of myself by trying to predict what will happen this year. Here is my comprehensive breakdown of the upcoming season for the ACC, otherwise known is idiocy at its finest.

Championship Game: Virginia Tech over Boston College

This was my story a month ago, and I’m sticking to it. The Eagles have a strong defense and a workhorse running back. David Shinskie is back under center, and he can only improve on his freshman season – his first year of football in half a decade.

I’ve lost faith in Florida State’s chances enough to take the Eagles as the Atlantic champs. BC faces an easier conference schedule, where I think they can sneak six conference wins in.

The Hokies, meanwhile, figure to be either 7-1 or 8-0 when the calendar hits November. Their three-game stretch of Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Miami is treacherous, but with the uncertainty around the Tar Heels’ season, that stretch is a little calmer now, it seems.

When it comes to the Eagles-Hokies matchup, it really doesn’t do justice to call it a match up, because it hardly resembles one. The gap between the two divisions this year is immense. Whoever wins the Coastal Division wins the championship.

Player of the Year: Christian Ponder, FSU

Ponder, if healthy, could put up ridiculous numbers in his senior season with the ‘Noles. It figures to be more of the same with Florida State in terms of the offense loading up the scoreboard, while the defense struggles to do its job.

Ponder has the athletes around him to make big plays. He has a shot to become the first Heisman winner from the ACC in nine years, and he could also shoot up NFL Draft projections with a strong year.

Biggest upset of the year: Duke over Miami, Oct. 16

Before you stop reading, hear me out.

Miami will either be coming off a huge win over Florida State, or a devastating loss the week before. The ‘Canes have a history of sleepwalking through road trips to Duke.

In 2008, they trailed the Blue Devils 24-14 in the third quarter before coming back to win 49-31.

In 2006, the Hurricanes needed a last-second interception on the goal line to avoid falling to the winless Blue Devils, winning 20-15.

If Duke came that close when they had significantly inferior talent, the Blue Devils have a much better chance this time around when the talent pool is much better.

Duke has a strong offense capable of scoring on anyone. Donovan Varner is the most productive receiver in the league, and Sean Renfree was a highly recruited quarterback two years ago and the coaches have high hopes for him.

If Miami doesn’t watch its step coming off a potentially mammoth rivalry game the week before, it’s not absurd to think Duke could win that game.

Best newcomer: Jeff Luc, LB Florida State

Luc, the most prized recruit in the ACC in the class of 2010, saw his chances for playing time rise when projected starter Nigel Carr was booted off the team in July.

Luc is slotted to back up Kendall Smith at middle linebacker, but he could move around if need be as a backup. Everything I’ve heard is the Luc is the next great linebacker at FSU, following in the footsteps of Peter Boulware, Ernie Sims and Dekoda Watson.  Expect him to make an immediate impact on a defense desperate for that type of player.

Biggest disappointment: Clemson

The return of Kyle Parker was supposed to salvage the Tigers’ season. It will make nary a difference with a lack of supporting cast. Andre Ellington has 1,000-yard potential at running back, but there is no semblance of a receiving corps.

Clemson’s early-season schedule is too tough to overcome. The Tigers face Auburn, Miami and Georgia Tech in a four-week span. I don’t think Clemson wins any of those games.

A 7-5 season would impress me. A 6-6 year would be just about right.

Best offense: Virginia Tech

There are more proven weapons for the Hokies than anyone else. Florida State has Ponder, Miami has an abundance of former blue-chip recruits who should emerge this year, but the Hokies have by far the best combination of talent and experience.

David Wilson may emerge as the backup running back instead of Darren Evans, meaning the Hokies might have a former 1,000-yard rusher at third string.

Senior quarterback Tyrod Taylor has his entire receiving corps back intact for the third consecutive year. Also, new starting tight end Andre Smith will be an improvement in the passing game over Greg Boone.

Ryan Williams should put up gaudy numbers again after breaking a number of school and conference rushing records as a freshman.

Best defense: Miami

I’m sorry, but until I know who will or won’t play for North Carolina, I’m not touching that team when it comes to predictions. So Miami earns this recognition with studs like Allen Bailey, who could be a top 10 pick next spring, and Colin McCarthy and Sean Spence at linebacker.

Brandon Harris anchors a secondary that is closing the talent gap between recent years and the early part of the decade.

Miami will have the fastest and fiercest defense this year, and Randy Shannon finally has the pieces in place again to wreak havoc on opponents like the ‘Canes used to do when Shannon was defensive coordinator.

Game of the year: Virginia Tech at Miami, November 20

This is the de facto ACC Championship game, if everything unfolds as planned. These are the two best teams of the year facing off in the next to last week of the season. Both teams have some road bumps before this date, but it’s possible both could be ranked in the top 10 come game time, maybe even the top five.

The winner of this game will likely punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game two weeks later.

It’s going to be a great year for the ACC. Virginia Tech and Miami should carry the torch at the forefront of the national rankings most of the season.  Still, nine teams should reach the postseason, showing the true depth of a league that has taken it’s fair share of criticism in recent years.

ACC goes deep in 3 key places

One thing every team faces questions about in the pre-season is depth. There are always battles in fall camp to try and solidify the rotation at a variety of positions, whether it be in the starting group or fostering younger players in backup roles.

If you formed an All-ACC roster, the depth would be tremendous. It came to my attention after the All-ACC selections were made of just how many bona fide star players did not make the cut. There are several positions that are loaded with talent across the board in the league this year, here’s a few in reverse order:

3. Offensive Line

The ACC is tied with the SEC for the most players on the Outland Trophy watch list with 11 each. Eight of those are on the offensive line. Anthony Castonzo, a four-year starter at left tackle for Boston College, leads the way and figures to be a front-runner for the award. The 2009 first team all-conference selection allowed just one sack in 650 snaps last season, which came against Robert Quinn of North Carolina.

Florida State could have had their entire line named all-conference it seems. Highly praised coach Rick Trickett has built a spectacular core on the line as he enters his fourth year with the Seminoles. Senior guard Rodney Hudson is ready to become the first player in conference history to be earn first-team honors four times. He is a consensus preseason All-American and might be Castonzo’s toughest competition for the Outland Trophy.

The ‘Noles starting center is Ryan McMahon, a redshirt senior who’s started every game in his college career. He graded out as a blocker last season at 80.6 percent, second on the team only to Hudson.

Both Hudson and McMahon are four-year starters, but the experience drop-off is slim among the three other linemen. Andrew Datko (LT), David Spurlock (RG) and Zebrie Sanders (RT) are all entering their third year as starters. There are entire conferences that don’t have the combination of talent and experience on the line like Florida State.

Georgia Tech center Sean Bedford returns after earning first-team honors as a junior. He anchors a Georgia Tech line that must replace three starters. If the Yellow Jackets want to dominate the point of attack like they have the past two seasons, it starts with Redford leading the way.

Even Wake Forest, picked to finish near the bottom of the league, has a few studs up front. Despite serious question marks at both tackles, left guard Joe Looney and center Russell Nenon have All-ACC potential.

Best unit: Florida State

Best player: Anthony Castonzo, Boston College

2. Linebacker

There are more than a handful of teams with a premium duo of linebackers. North Carolina has Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter, two of the most athletic players you’ll find at that position in the country. Sturdivant was a Butkus Award semi-finalist last season, and has led the Tar Heels in tackles the past two years. Despite a late summer arrest on drug charges, coach Butch Davis said Sturdivant will not face any suspension from game action. Bruce Carter has 4.45 speed in the 40-yard dash, a number only the most elite outside linebackers in the NFL can even think of.

Up north in Boston, the Eagles hope that Mark Herzlich can regain some or all of the form that made him the most feared linebacker in all of college football two years ago. In his absence, all Luke Kuechly did was come out of nowhere as a freshman to lead the ACC in tackles by a mile. He’s added close to 20 pounds of bulk since the end of last season as well. If he can avoid the sophomore slump and Herzlich’s leg (and mind) holds up, they will be quite a force.

Miami’s Sean Spence and Colin McCarthy are another pair of slobber-knockers that have the experts picking Miami to do big things this year. McCarthy returned in 2009 from a season-ending shoulder injury the year before to make second-team all-conference with 95 tackles. Spence didn’t live up to lofty expectations in 2009 after being one of Randy Shannon’s most consistent defenders as a true freshman in 2008. He missed three games last in the season with injury, but his 36 tackles were fifth-most on the team. If he’s healthy, he’s another speedy outside ‘backer that is a big play machine.

As much grief as Maryland’s received over last season’s abysmal 2-10 season, the Terps sure have a solid group of linebackers. Alex Wujciak is a wild child in the middle. He is one of just two players nationally to have at least 130 tackles in each of the past two seasons. Adrian Moten lines up on the outside, and he led the team with nine tackles for a loss and six sacks last year. Demetrius Hartsfield might have gotten more recognition for an outstanding freshman campaign in 2009 if it weren’t for his team’s record or Kuechly’s huge year. Hartsfield missed two games, but still made 64 tackles. Also, the three top reserves for Maryland at linebacker return, making this the deepest unit of any team in the league.

One other notable player in the league include FSU’s Nigel Bradham, a former super blue-chip recruit who led the team with 93 tackles last season as a sophomore in 2009.

Best unit: North Carolina

Best player: Alex Wujciak, Maryland

1. Quarterback

The buzz during ACC Media Days was all about the volume of talented and experienced quarterbacks throughout the league. There were three players not named to the all-conference preseason team that would likely be among the first 20 players mentioned as Heisman Trophy candidates.

The man who did manage to earn all-conference was Florida State’s Christian Ponder, who is the best quarterback to come through that program since Chris Weinke a decade ago. Ponder suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in game ten last year versus Clemson, but still was the only ACC quarterback to average 300 yards passing per game.

His replacement after the injury was E.J. Manuel, a former five-star recruit who turned in the MVP performance in the Gator Bowl victory over West Virginia. If Ponder goes down, the Seminoles are more than comfortable with Manuel.

As the season draws nearer, however, Ponder is gaining more and more acclaim as a cream of the crop quarterback and elite NFL Draft prospect. If Florida State returns to glory this season, he’ll get as much attention as his rookie head coach, Jimbo Fisher.

Just down the road at Miami, Jacory Harris is oozing potential. After a red-hot start to the 2009 season put him in the immediate discussion for the Heisman, Harris struggled down the stretch and finished with 24 touchdowns to go with 17 interceptions.

“Most everybody thinks when a quarterback has turnovers, it’s him not reading his keys,” coach Randy Shannon said, “It could be the receiver running routes too short…it could be Jacory forcing the ball…or it could be pressure. We’ve just got to calm him down in the pocket.”

Whatever the problem was, Harris showed flashes of brilliance last season, including a gutsy fourth-quarter performance in the season opener against Florida State, which the Hurricanes won 38-34. His receivers are a year older, his line is expected to be tremendously improved, and according to Shannon, his poise and understanding of the offense is markedly improved.

At Virginia Tech, the Hokies believe they have what could be their best offense ever. A big reason for that is the return of Tyrod Taylor, who has been starting since his freshman season and has a 23-5 career record under center. Taylor led the ACC in passing efficiency last season in a breakout season. In his first two years, his career touchdowns-to-interceptions numbers were 7-10 and had just 1,963 career passing yards. In 2009 he eclipsed that mark with 2,311 yards and 14 touchdowns with just five picks. He has his entire receiving corps back for the third straight year, not to mention a pair of former 1,000-yard rushers behind him in Darren Evans and Ryan Williams.

If it’s not enough to have one of the most talented quarterbacks in the ACC, NC State has two. Russell Wilson is consistent, accurate and mobile. Wilson’s streak of 379 consecutive passes without an interception is an NCAA record. His 31 touchdown passes were the fourth most in the country last season. There aren’t many times a player posts numbers like that and still has to fight off competition in fall practice. After missing spring ball to play baseball, Wilson’s absence allowed Mike Glennon to shine. Glennon threw for nearly 500 yards in the spring game. He was recruited to be the quarterback of the future for Tom O’Brien, but Wilson’s emergence has kept Glennon on the sideline. There are 80 schools in America that would love to have Glennon under center.

The guy who has arguably been the most successful yet gets little attention is Joshua Nesbitt at Georgia Tech. The reigning first-team all-conference quarterback got rave reviews by teammates and coach Paul Johnson about his competitiveness and work ethic. Pound for pound, he may be the strongest player on the Yellow Jackets’ roster. He also enters his third year running the triple option offense for Johnson. Every offense relies heavily on execution, but the Tech offense requires a quarterback who is adept with the timing and execution of the option. He needs 703 yards to top Woodrow Dantzler’s mark for career rushing yards for an ACC quarterback. Odds are Nesbitt reaches that after gaining 1,037 yards on the ground in 2009.

Best unit: Florida State

Best player: Christian Ponder, Florida State